IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jaf/journl/v10y2019i2n255.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analysis of Risk Premium Behavior in the Tunisian Foreign Exchange Market During Crisis Period

Author

Listed:
  • sonia KOUKI

Abstract

In this paper, we empirically examine time-varying risk premia in the Tunisian foreign exchange market by applying GARCH-M modeling to the TND/Euro and TND/USD parities for 1 to 12 months forecasting horizons. Our ultimate objective is to help better manage the parities and to help provide stability to a foreign exchange market where EMH is very weak. Our findings show 1) a heteroscedasticity of residuals for the TND/Euro (all forecasting horizons) and the TND/USD(for 1 month) indicating a lack of stability of their volatility; 2) a non-significant standard deviation of the risk premium against the presence of ARCH and GACH in all cases. On the other hand, the descriptive analysis of the risk premium and term premium variables show an asymmetric distribution. We used, therefore, the asymmetric GARCH model, E-GARCH. Our normality tests show, however, that the GARCH model neither allows for residuals smoothing nor improves the AIC.

Suggested Citation

  • sonia KOUKI, 2019. "Analysis of Risk Premium Behavior in the Tunisian Foreign Exchange Market During Crisis Period," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 10(2), pages 28-38, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:jaf:journl:v:10:y:2019:i:2:n:255
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://34.195.102.181/journal/index.php/index/article/view/318
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April.
    2. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "The Optimal Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Price-Setting Rules and Internationalized Production," NBER Chapters, in: Topics in Empirical International Economics: A Festschrift in Honor of Robert E. Lipsey, pages 163-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. de Oliveira Souza, Thiago, 2019. "Macro-finance and factor timing: Time-varying factor risk and price of risk premiums," Discussion Papers on Economics 7/2019, University of Southern Denmark, Department of Economics.
    4. Karfakis, Costas & Kim, Suk-Joong, 1995. "Exchange rates, interest rates and current account news: some evidence from Australia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 575-595, August.
    5. Engel, Charles, 1992. "On the foreign exchange risk premium in a general equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3-4), pages 305-319, May.
    6. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
    7. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa & de Oliveira, Wilson & Stosic, Tatijana, 2016. "Foreign exchange rate entropy evolution during financial crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 449(C), pages 233-239.
    8. Adrien Verdelhan, 2010. "A Habit‐Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 123-146, February.
    9. Coelho dos Santos, Marcelo Bittencourt & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Figueiredo Pinto, Antonio Carlos, 2016. "Evidence of risk premiums in emerging market carry trade currencies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-115.
    10. Bertasiute, Akvile & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2020. "The behavioral economics of currency unions: Economic integration and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    11. González-Rivera Gloria, 1998. "Smooth-Transition GARCH Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, July.
    12. Paul Grauwe, 2010. "The scientific foundation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 144(3), pages 413-443, September.
    13. Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2012. "Risk, Monetary Policy, and the Exchange Rate," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 247-309.
    14. McKenzie, Michael, 2002. "The Economics of Exchange Rate Volatility Asymmetry," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 247-260, July.
    15. Kumar Satish, 2018. "An Empirical Examination of Risk Premiums in the Indian Currency Futures Market," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-24, January.
    16. Bailey, Warren & Chang, K C, 1993. "Macroeconomic Influences and the Variability of the Commodity Futures Basis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 555-573, June.
    17. Bilson, John F O, 1981. "The "Speculative Efficiency" Hypothesis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 435-451, July.
    18. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    19. Djeutem, Edouard, 2014. "Model uncertainty and the Forward Premium Puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 16-40.
    20. Marion Kohler, 2010. "Exchange rates during financial crises," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    21. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. sonia KOUKI, 2019. "Analysis of Risk Premium Behavior in the Tunisian Foreign Exchange Market During Crisis Period," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 10(2), pages 28-38, December.
    2. Karen K. Lewis, 2011. "Global Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 435-466, December.
    3. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    4. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
    5. Lewis, Karen K., 1995. "Puzzles in international financial markets," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 37, pages 1913-1971, Elsevier.
    6. Javier Bianchi & Saki Bigio & Charles Engel, 2021. "Scrambling for Dollars: International Liquidity, Banks and Exchange Rates," Working Papers 786, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    7. Levine, Ross, 1989. "An International Arbitrage Pricing Model with PPP Deviations," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(4), pages 587-599, October.
    8. Kim, Daehwan & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "Long-term foreign exchange risk premia and inflation risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    10. Juan Jose Echavarria & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Great expectations? evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-27, December.
    11. Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Viewpoint: Towards a solution to the puzzles in exchange rate economics: where do we stand?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(3), pages 673-708, August.
    12. Jonen, Benjamin & Scheuring, Simon, 2014. "Time-varying international diversification and the forward premium," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 128-148.
    13. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Sonia Pangusión Espinosa., "undated". "Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: The Spanish case," Studies on the Spanish Economy 128, FEDEA.
    15. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1986. "The covariation of risk premiums and expected future spot exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(1, Supple), pages 5-21, March.
    16. Shively, Philip A., 2000. "Stationary time-varying risk premia in forward foreign exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 273-288, April.
    17. Joachim Zietz & Ghassem Homaifar, 1994. "Exchange rate uncertainty and the efficiency of the forward market for foreign exchange," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(3), pages 461-475, September.
    18. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    19. Djeutem, Edouard, 2014. "Model uncertainty and the Forward Premium Puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 16-40.
    20. Jung, Kuk Mo & Lee, Seungduck, 2015. "A Liquidity-Based Resolution of the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," MPRA Paper 64164, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk premium; Term premium; Estimation; TND/Euro; TND/USD; CARCH-M; E-GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M1 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration
    • N8 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jaf:journl:v:10:y:2019:i:2:n:255. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oussama Quentin Kasseh (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/urredtn.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.