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Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves

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  1. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:2:a:6 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Ed Westerhout & Ona Ciocyte, 2017. "The role of inflation-linked bonds," CPB Discussion Paper 344, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  3. Daniela Kubudi & José Valentim Vicente, 2016. "A Joint Model of Nominal and Real Yield Curves," Working Papers Series 452, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Andreasen, Martin M., 2012. "An estimated DSGE model: Explaining variation in nominal term premia, real term premia, and inflation risk premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1656-1674.
  5. Dempster, M.A.H. & Tang, Ke, 2011. "Estimating exponential affine models with correlated measurement errors: Applications to fixed income and commodities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 639-652, March.
  6. Güler, Mustafa Haluk & Keleş, Gürsu & Polat, Tandoğan, 2017. "An empirical decomposition of the liquidity premium in breakeven inflation rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 185-192.
  7. Paul Söderlind, 2011. "Inflation Risk Premia and Survey Evidence on Macroeconomic Uncertainty," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(2), pages 113-133, June.
  8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/79hle3i1b69dqrocqsjarh6lb1 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Marcello Pericoli, 2012. "Expected inflation and inflation risk premium in the euro area and in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 842, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2015. "On The Term Structure of South African Interest Rates: Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," MPRA Paper 67681, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
  12. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  13. Guimarães, Rodrigo, 2014. "Expectations, risk premia and information spanning in dynamic term structure model estimation," Bank of England working papers 489, Bank of England.
  14. Jens H. E. Christensen & James M. Gillan, 2011. "A model-independent maximum range for the liquidity correction of TIPS yields," Working Paper Series 2011-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  15. Fan, Longzhen & Tian, Shu & Zhang, Chu, 2012. "Why are excess returns on China’s Treasury bonds so predictable? The role of the monetary system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 239-248.
  16. Istrefi, Klodiana & Mouabbi, Sarah, 2018. "Subjective interest rate uncertainty and the macroeconomy: A cross-country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 296-313.
  17. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/79hle3i1b69dqrocqsjarh6lb1 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Dungey, Mardi & Tugrul Vehbi, M, 2011. "A SVECM Model of the UK Economy and The Term Premium," Working Papers 11610, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
  19. Guimarães , Rodrigo, 2012. "What accounts for the fall in UK ten-year government bond yields?," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 52(3), pages 213-223.
  20. Faust, Jon & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "Forecasting Inflation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2-56, Elsevier.
  21. Zhu, Yanhui & Fan, Jingwen & Tucker, Jon, 2018. "The impact of monetary policy on gold price dynamics," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 319-331.
  22. Spencer, Peter & Liu, Zhuoshi, 2010. "An open-economy macro-finance model of international interdependence: The OECD, US and the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 667-680, March.
  23. Andrea Berardi, 2013. "Inflation Risk Premia, Yield Volatility and Macro Factors," Working Papers 27/2013, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  24. Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2018. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 643-661, August.
  25. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6mrhmte8no840p587hv7bkohtn is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Agnieszka Konicz & David Pisinger & Alex Weissensteiner, 2015. "Optimal annuity portfolio under inflation risk," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 461-488, July.
  27. Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Hail, 2013. "Term structure dynamics with macro-factors using high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 78-93.
  28. Paul Hubert, 2017. "Central Bank Information and the effects of Monetary shocks," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-19, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  29. Lin, Mucai & Hong, Zhiwu & Su, Ge, 2024. "Transmission of liquidity and credit risks in the Chinese bond market: Analysis based on joint modeling of multiple yield curves," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 597-615.
  30. Marcello Pericoli, 2019. "An assessment of recent trends in market-based expected iflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 542, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  31. Richard Finlay & Sebastian Wende, 2012. "Estimating Inflation Expectations with a Limited Number of Inflation-Indexed Bonds," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(2), pages 111-142, June.
  32. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "The inflation risk premium on government debt in an overlapping generations model," Working Papers 2013_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  33. Joyce, Michael & Relleen, Jonathan & Sorensen, Steffen, 2008. "Measuring monetary policy expectations from financial market instruments," Bank of England working papers 356, Bank of England.
  34. Tosapol Apaitan, 2015. "Extracting Market Inflation Expectations: A Semi-structural Macro-finance Term Structure Model," PIER Discussion Papers 4., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Sep 2015.
  35. Malik, Sheheryar & Meldrum, Andrew, 2016. "Evaluating the robustness of UK term structure decompositions using linear regression methods," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 85-102.
  36. Vicente, José Valentim Machado & Guillen, Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho, 2013. "Do inflation-linked bonds contain information about future inflation?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(2), June.
  37. Andras Lengyel, 2022. "Treasury Supply Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," MNB Working Papers 2022/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  38. Andrea Carriero & Sarah Mouabbi & Elisabetta Vangelista, 2018. "UK term structure decompositions at the zero lower bound," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 643-661, August.
  39. Huang, Xiaoyong & Jia, Fei & Xu, Xiangyun & Yu shi,, 2019. "The threshold effect of market sentiment and inflation expectations on gold price," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 77-83.
  40. Temperley Patricio, 2024. "La medición de las expectativas de inflación en Argentina: consultoras económicas versus mercados financieros," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4766, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
  41. José Valentim Machado Vicente, 2021. "A Non-Knotty Inflation Risk Premium Model," Working Papers Series 543, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  42. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
  43. Remy Beauregard & Jens H. E. Christensen & Eric Fischer & Simon Zhu, 2021. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premia in Emerging Bond Markets: Evidence from Mexico," Staff Reports 961, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  44. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H. E. Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2020. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium," Working Paper Series 2017-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  45. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco J. Palomino, 2016. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves: Wage Rigidities and Permanent Shocks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-032, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  46. Sara Cecchetti & Adriana Grasso & Marcello Pericoli, 2022. "An analysis of objective inflation expectations and inflation risk premia," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1380, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  47. Joyce, Michael & Tong, Matthew & Woods, Robert, 2011. "The United Kingdom’s quantitative easing policy: design, operation and impact," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(3), pages 200-212.
  48. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
  49. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6mrhmte8no840p587hv7bkohtn is not listed on IDEAS
  50. Boeckx, Jef & Iania, Leonardo & Wauters, Joris, 2023. "Macroeconomic drivers of Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premia," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
  51. Hibiki Ichiue & Yoichi Ueno, 2013. "Estimating Term Premia at the Zero Bound: An Analysis of Japanese, US, and UK Yields," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 13-E-8, Bank of Japan.
  52. Stanley Fischer, 2015. "Central Bank Independence : a speech at the 2015 Herbert Stein Memorial Lecture National Economists Club, Washington, D.C., November 4, 2015," Speech 873, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  53. Thomas Laubach, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Interest Rates: The Role of Sovereign Default Risk," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 7-30.
  54. Asgharian, Hossein, 2011. "A conditional asset-pricing model with the optimal orthogonal portfolio," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1027-1040, May.
  55. Mervyn King & David Low, 2014. "Measuring the ''World'' Real Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 19887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Kanas, Angelos, 2014. "Bond futures, inflation-indexed bonds, and inflation risk premium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 82-99.
  57. Tobias Adrian & Hao Wu, 2009. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Staff Reports 362, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  58. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1mtnt18l7t904biebogfm7hcao is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Andreasen, Martin, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model: explaining variation in term premia," Bank of England working papers 441, Bank of England.
  60. Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2016. "Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  61. Iryna Kaminska & Andrew Meldrum & James Smith, 2013. "A Global Model Of International Yield Curves: No‐Arbitrage Term Structure Approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 352-374, October.
  62. Liu, Zhuoshi & Spencer, Peter, 2013. "Modelling sovereign credit spreads with international macro-factors: The case of Brazil 1998–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 241-256.
  63. Ed Westerhout & Ona Ciocyte, 2017. "The role of inflation-linked bonds," CPB Discussion Paper 344.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  64. Lange, Ronald H., 2017. "The expected real yield and inflation components of the nominal yield curve," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-18.
  65. Dooruj Rambaccussing & Craig Menzies & Andrzej Kwiatkowski, 2022. "Look who’s Talking: Individual Committee members’ impact on inflation expectations," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 305, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  66. Covarrubias, Enrique & Hernández-del-Valle, Gerardo, 2016. "Inflation expectations derived from a portfolio model," MPRA Paper 69489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  67. Shi Chen & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Weining Wang, 2022. "The common and specific components of inflation expectations across European countries," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 553-580, February.
  68. Giray Gozgor, 2013. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 6(1), pages 7-18, April.
  69. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Benjamin D. Nelson, 2015. "Simple Banking: Profitability and the Yield Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 143-175, February.
  70. Kaminska, Iryna & Liu, Zhuoshi & Relleen, Jon & Vangelista, Elisabetta, 2018. "What do the prices of UK inflation-linked securities say on inflation expectations, risk premia and liquidity risks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 76-96.
  71. Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "On the term structure of South African interest rates: cointegration and threshold adjustment," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(4), pages 300-321.
  72. Meldrum, Andrew & Raczko, Marek & Spencer, Peter, 2023. "The information in joint term structures of bond yields," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  73. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1mtnt18l7t904biebogfm7hcao is not listed on IDEAS
  74. J. Benson Durham, 2013. "More on U.S. Treasury term premiums: spot and expected measures," Staff Reports 658, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  75. Chen, Shi & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Wang, Weining, 2015. "Inflation co-movement across countries in multi-maturity term structure: An arbitrage-free approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-049, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
  76. Westerhout, Ed & Ciocyte, Ona, 2017. "The Role of Inflation-Linked Bonds. Increasing, but Still Modest," Discussion Paper 2017-027, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  77. Chen, S. & Härdle, W.K. & Wang, W., 2016. "Inflation Co-movement across Countries in Multi-maturity Term Structure: An Arbitrage-Free Approach," Working Papers 16/06, Department of Economics, City University London.
  78. Garcí­a, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2010. "Inflation risks and inflation risk premia," Working Paper Series 1162, European Central Bank.
  79. International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Brazil: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2016/349, International Monetary Fund.
  80. Alex Hsu & Erica X. N. Li & Francisco Palomino, 2021. "Real and Nominal Equilibrium Yield Curves," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 1138-1158, February.
  81. Jardet, Caroline & Monfort, Alain & Pegoraro, Fulvio, 2013. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) term structure models, term premia and GDP growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 389-402.
  82. Mauro Sayar Ferreira & Joice Marques Figueiredo, 2024. "The influence of global uncertainty and financial shocks, and sovereign risk shock on the Brazilian term structure of interest rate," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 674, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  83. Pedro Pires Ribeiro & José Dias Curto, 2018. "How do zero-coupon inflation swaps predict inflation rates in the euro area? Evidence of efficiency and accuracy on 1-year contracts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1451-1475, June.
  84. Kei Imakubo & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Estimating inflation risk premia from nominal and real yield curves using a shadow-rate model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-1, Bank of Japan.
  85. Westerhout, Ed & Ciocyte, Ona, 2017. "The Role of Inflation-Linked Bonds. Increasing, but Still Modest," Other publications TiSEM 08878bbd-e76e-4216-bee9-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  86. Zeng, Zheng, 2013. "New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 125-139.
  87. Meldrum, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt, 2015. "Long-run priors for term structure models," Bank of England working papers 575, Bank of England.
  88. Marcello Pericoli, 2013. "Macroeconomic and monetary policy surprises and the term structure of interest rates," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 927, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  89. Marfatia Hardik A., 2018. "Estimating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the UK: evidence from the inflation-indexed bonds market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(1), pages 1-18, January.
  90. Tosapol Apaitan, 2015. "Extracting Market Inflation Expectations: A Semi-structural Macro-finance Term Structure Model," PIER Discussion Papers 4, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  91. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-049 is not listed on IDEAS
  92. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
  93. Berardi, Andrea, 2023. "Term premia and short rate expectations in the euro area," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  94. Martin M. Andreasen & Jens H.E. Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2017. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium," CREATES Research Papers 2017-27, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  95. Andrew Blake & Garreth Rule & Ole Rummel, 2015. "Inflation targeting and term premia estimates for Latin America," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 24(1), pages 1-21, December.
  96. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.
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