IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/comgts/v12y2015i3p461-488.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal annuity portfolio under inflation risk

Author

Listed:
  • Agnieszka Konicz
  • David Pisinger
  • Alex Weissensteiner

Abstract

The paper investigates the importance of inflation-linked annuities in retirement planning. Given nominal, inflation-linked, and variable annuities, as well as bonds and stocks, we search for optimal consumption and investment decisions under two different objective functions: (1) maximization of expected utility of real consumption, and (2) minimization of expected deviations from an inflation-adjusted target. When optimizing the objective, we allow for rebalancing the portfolio during retirement by buying additional annuities and by trading bonds and stocks. To find the optimal solution, we apply a multi-stage stochastic programming approach. Our findings indicate that independently of the considered objective function, real annuities are a crucial asset in every portfolio. In addition, without investing in real annuities, the retiree has to rebalance the portfolio more frequently, and still obtains a lower and more volatile real consumption. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Agnieszka Konicz & David Pisinger & Alex Weissensteiner, 2015. "Optimal annuity portfolio under inflation risk," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 461-488, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:12:y:2015:i:3:p:461-488
    DOI: 10.1007/s10287-015-0234-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10287-015-0234-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10287-015-0234-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chanb & M. Viceira, 2013. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part II, chapter 39, pages 809-848, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Kwak, Minsuk & Lim, Byung Hwa, 2014. "Optimal portfolio selection with life insurance under inflation risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 59-71.
    3. Peijnenburg, Kim & Nijman, Theo & Werker, Bas J.M., 2016. "The annuity puzzle remains a puzzle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 18-35.
    4. Joyce, Michael A.S. & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2010. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 281-294, February.
    5. Alexander Shapiro, 2003. "Inference of statistical bounds for multistage stochastic programming problems," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 58(1), pages 57-68, September.
    6. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    7. Kouwenberg, Roy, 2001. "Scenario generation and stochastic programming models for asset liability management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 279-292, October.
    8. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2002. "Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1201-1238, June.
    9. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Young, Virginia R., 2007. "Annuitization and asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 3138-3177, September.
    10. Jeffrey R. Brown & Olivia S. Mitchell & James M. Poterba, 2001. "The Role of Real Annuities and Indexed Bonds in an Individual Accounts Retirement Program," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Aspects of Investment-Based Social Security Reform, pages 321-370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Konicz, Agnieszka Karolina & Mulvey, John M., 2015. "Optimal savings management for individuals with defined contribution pension plans," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(1), pages 233-247.
    12. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
    13. Anne Pedersen & Alex Weissensteiner & Rolf Poulsen, 2013. "Financial planning for young households," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 205(1), pages 55-76, May.
    14. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    15. Manfred Gilli & Stefan Große & Enrico Schumann, 2010. "Calibrating the Nelson–Siegel–Svensson model," Working Papers 031, COMISEF.
    16. Han, Nan-wei & Hung, Mao-wei, 2012. "Optimal asset allocation for DC pension plans under inflation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 172-181.
    17. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1992. "Causal Relations among Stock Returns, Interest Rates, Real Activity, and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1591-1603, September.
    18. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
    19. Cairns, Andrew, 2000. "Some Notes on the Dynamics and Optimal Control of Stochastic Pension Fund Models in Continuous Time," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 19-55, May.
    20. J. Benson Durham, 2006. "An estimate of the inflation risk premium using a three-factor affine term structure model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    21. Blake, David & Wright, Douglas & Zhang, Yumeng, 2013. "Target-driven investing: Optimal investment strategies in defined contribution pension plans under loss aversion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 195-209.
    22. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    23. Ferstl, Robert & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2011. "Asset-liability management under time-varying investment opportunities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 182-192, January.
    24. Di Giacinto, Marina & Federico, Salvatore & Gozzi, Fausto & Vigna, Elena, 2014. "Income drawdown option with minimum guarantee," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(3), pages 610-624.
    25. Fischer, Stanley, 1975. "The Demand for Index Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(3), pages 509-534, June.
    26. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    27. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. "The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March.
    28. Jeffrey R. Brown & Olivia S. Mitchell & James M. Poterba, 2000. "Mortality Risk, Inflation Risk, and Annuity Products," NBER Working Papers 7812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Gerrard, Russell & Haberman, Steven & Vigna, Elena, 2004. "Optimal investment choices post-retirement in a defined contribution pension scheme," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 321-342, October.
    30. Ronald Hochreiter & Georg Pflug, 2007. "Financial scenario generation for stochastic multi-stage decision processes as facility location problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 257-272, July.
    31. David R. Cariño & William T. Ziemba, 1998. "Formulation of the Russell-Yasuda Kasai Financial Planning Model," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 46(4), pages 433-449, August.
    32. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Theo E. Nijman & Bas J. M. Werker, 2011. "Optimal Annuity Risk Management," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(4), pages 799-833.
    33. Kjetil Høyland & Stein W. Wallace, 2001. "Generating Scenario Trees for Multistage Decision Problems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 295-307, February.
    34. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    35. Mr. Shaun K. Roache & Alexander P. Attie, 2009. "Inflation Hedging for Long-Term Investors," IMF Working Papers 2009/090, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Owadally, Iqbal & Jang, Chul & Clare, Andrew, 2021. "Optimal investment for a retirement plan with deferred annuities allowing for inflation and labour income risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 1132-1146.
    2. Chul Jang & Andrew Clare & Iqbal Owadally, 2024. "Liability-driven investment for pension funds: stochastic optimization with real assets," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(3), pages 1-32, September.
    3. Das, Sanjiv R. & Ostrov, Daniel & Radhakrishnan, Anand & Srivastav, Deep, 2022. "Dynamic optimization for multi-goals wealth management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Chavis Ketkaew & Martine Van Wouwe & Preecha Vichitthamaros & Duanpen Teerawanviwat, 2019. "The Effect of Expected Income on Wealth Accumulation and Retirement Contribution of Thai Wageworkers," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(4), pages 21582440198, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Agnieszka Karolina Konicz & David Pisinger & Alex Weissensteiner, 2016. "Optimal retirement planning with a focus on single and joint life annuities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 275-295, February.
    2. Owadally, Iqbal & Jang, Chul & Clare, Andrew, 2021. "Optimal investment for a retirement plan with deferred annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 51-62.
    3. Wolfram J. Horneff & Raimond H. Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchel & Michael Z. Stamos, 2008. "Asset Allocation and Location over the Life Cycle with Survival-Contingent Payouts," Working Papers wp177, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    4. Owadally, Iqbal & Jang, Chul & Clare, Andrew, 2021. "Optimal investment for a retirement plan with deferred annuities allowing for inflation and labour income risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(3), pages 1132-1146.
    5. Chul Jang & Andrew Clare & Iqbal Owadally, 2024. "Liability-driven investment for pension funds: stochastic optimization with real assets," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(3), pages 1-32, September.
    6. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2008. "Life-cycle asset allocation with annuity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3590-3612, November.
    7. Mantilla-Garcia, Daniel & Martellini, Lionel & Garcia-Huitrón, Manuel E. & Martinez-Carrasco, Miguel A., 2024. "Back to the funding ratio! Addressing the duration puzzle and retirement income risk of defined contribution pension plans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Wolfram J. Horneff & Raimond H. Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell & Michael Z. Stamos, 2008. "Asset Allocation and Location over the Life Cycle with Survival-Contingent Payouts," NBER Working Papers 14055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2009. "Asset allocation and location over the life cycle with investment-linked survival-contingent payouts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1688-1699, September.
    10. Ferstl, Robert & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2011. "Asset-liability management under time-varying investment opportunities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 182-192, January.
    11. Koijen, R.S.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization," Discussion Paper 2006-78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    12. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2011. "Inflation hedging portfolios in different regimes," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 139-163, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
    14. Koijen, R.S.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization," Other publications TiSEM e0ee89d5-4a5f-4c70-a7ee-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2010. "1/N and long run optimal portfolios: results for mixed asset menus," Working Papers 2010-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Anne Pedersen & Alex Weissensteiner & Rolf Poulsen, 2013. "Financial planning for young households," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 205(1), pages 55-76, May.
    17. Arjan Berkelaar & Roy Kouwenberg, 2011. "A Liability-Relative Drawdown Approach to Pension Asset Liability Management," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Gautam Mitra & Katharina Schwaiger (ed.), Asset and Liability Management Handbook, chapter 14, pages 352-382, Palgrave Macmillan.
    18. Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Michael Stamos, 2006. "Life-Cycle Asset Allocation with Annuity Markets: Is Longevity Insurance a Good Deal?," Working Papers wp146, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    19. Kwak, Minsuk & Lim, Byung Hwa, 2014. "Optimal portfolio selection with life insurance under inflation risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 59-71.
    20. Duarte, Thiago B. & Valladão, Davi M. & Veiga, Álvaro, 2017. "Asset liability management for open pension schemes using multistage stochastic programming under Solvency-II-based regulatory constraints," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 177-188.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:comgts:v:12:y:2015:i:3:p:461-488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.