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La medición de las expectativas de inflación en Argentina: consultoras económicas versus mercados financieros

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  • Temperley Patricio

Abstract

La inflación de los últimos años en Argentina ha sido elevada y volátil, lo que torna cada vez más importante pronosticarla correctamente en el corto plazo. Este trabajo compara el poder predictivo de las proyecciones de inflación mensual realizadas por consultores económicos encuestados por el Banco Central mediante el Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) y la inflación implícita (break-even) en los mercados financieros, obtenida ajustando modelos de Nelson-Siegel-Svensson sobre curvas cupón cero. Los resultados sugieren que las expectativas del REM fueron una mejor referencia para pronosticar la evolución de la inflación en Argentina en el corto plazo durante 2020-2023.

Suggested Citation

  • Temperley Patricio, 2024. "La medición de las expectativas de inflación en Argentina: consultoras económicas versus mercados financieros," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4766, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    • Handle: RePEc:aep:anales:4766
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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