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Spot price modeling and the valuation of electricity forward contracts: The role of demand and capacity

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  1. repec:dui:wpaper:1502 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Ren� Carmona & Michael Coulon & Daniel Schwarz, 2012. "The valuation of clean spread options: linking electricity, emissions and fuels," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1951-1965, December.
  3. Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A. & Popov, Viktor U., 2015. "Fine structure of the price–demand relationship in the electricity market: Multi-scale correlation analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 215-226.
  4. Nomikos, Nikos & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2012. "Modelling energy spot prices: Empirical evidence from NYMEX," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1153-1169.
  5. Cartea, Álvaro & González-Pedraz, Carlos, 2012. "How much should we pay for interconnecting electricity markets? A real options approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 14-30.
  6. Gupta, Aparna & Palepu, Sai, 2024. "Designing risk-free service for renewable wind and solar resources," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(2), pages 715-728.
  7. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-57.
  8. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Diana, 2021. "Risk premia in electricity derivatives markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  9. Helder Sebastião & Pedro Godinho & Sjur Westgaard, 2020. "Using Machine Learning to Profit on the Risk Premium of the Nordic Electricity Futures," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 67(si), pages 1-17, December.
  10. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  11. Werner, Dan, 2014. "Electricity Market Price Volatility: The Importance of Ramping Costs," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169619, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  12. Huisman, Ronald & Kilic, Mehtap, 2012. "Electricity Futures Prices: Indirect Storability, Expectations, and Risk Premiums," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 892-898.
  13. Andreas Wagner, 2014. "Residual Demand Modeling and Application to Electricity Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  14. Zi‐Yi Guo, 2020. "Stochastic multifactor models in risk management of energy futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(12), pages 1918-1934, December.
  15. Juan Ignacio Pe~na & Rosa Rodriguez, 2022. "Time-zero Efficiency of European Power Derivatives Markets," Papers 2202.01737, arXiv.org.
  16. Fiuza de Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo & Daglish, Toby, 2016. "Can market power in the electricity spot market translate into market power in the hedge market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 11-26.
  17. Wei Wei & Asger Lunde, 2023. "Identifying Risk Factors and Their Premia: A Study on Electricity Prices," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(5), pages 1647-1679.
  18. Hinz, Juri & Yee, Jeremy, 2018. "Optimal forward trading and battery control under renewable electricity generation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 244-254.
  19. Michelfelder, Richard A. & Pilotte, Eugene A., 2021. "The electricity production cost curve during extreme winter weather," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  20. Michal Michalovský & Igor Paholok, 2011. "Portfolio Theory and Electricity Forward Markets," European Financial and Accounting Journal, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2011(1), pages 76-103.
  21. Furió, Dolores & Torró, Hipòlit, 2020. "Optimal hedging under biased energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  22. Moreno, Manuel & Novales, Alfonso & Platania, Federico, 2019. "Long-term swings and seasonality in energy markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(3), pages 1011-1023.
  23. Rubin, Ofir D. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2011. "A novel approach for modeling deregulated electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 2711-2721, May.
  24. Furió, Dolores, 2011. "A Survey on the Spanish Electricity Intraday Market/El mercado de electricidad español: el mercado intradiario," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 657(20.)-65, Agosto.
  25. Kiesel, Rüdiger & Kusterman, Michael, 2016. "Structural models for coupled electricity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 16-38.
  26. David Esteban Rodriguez & Alfredo Trespalacios & David Galeano, 2021. "Risk Transfer in an Electricity Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-12, October.
  27. repec:dui:wpaper:1504 is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Mahringer, Steffen & Fuess, Roland & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity Market Coupling and the Pricing of Transmission Rights: An Option-based Approach," Working Papers on Finance 1512, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  29. Benedetti, Giuseppe & Campi, Luciano, 2016. "Utility indifference valuation for non-smooth payoffs with an application to power derivatives," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63016, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  30. Pierre, Erwan & Schneider, Lorenz, 2024. "Intermittently coupled electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
  31. Samet Gunay & Audil Rashid Khaki, 2018. "Best Fitting Fat Tail Distribution for the Volatilities of Energy Futures: Gev, Gat and Stable Distributions in GARCH and APARCH Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, June.
  32. Damir Filipovic & Martin Larsson & Tony Ware, 2017. "Polynomial processes for power prices," Papers 1710.10293, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
  33. Godin, Frédéric & Ibrahim, Zinatu, 2021. "An analysis of electricity congestion price patterns in North America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  34. Giuseppe Benedetti & Luciano Campi, 2013. "Utility indifference valuation for non-smooth payoffs with an application to power derivatives," Papers 1307.4591, arXiv.org.
  35. Dmitriy O. Afanasyev & Elena A. Fedorova & Evgeniy V. Gilenko, 2021. "The fundamental drivers of electricity price: a multi-scale adaptive regression analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1913-1938, April.
  36. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "Electricity Spot and Derivatives Pricing when Markets are Interconnected," Working Papers on Finance 1323, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  37. Dillig, Marius & Jung, Manuel & Karl, Jürgen, 2016. "The impact of renewables on electricity prices in Germany – An estimation based on historic spot prices in the years 2011–2013," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 7-15.
  38. Iván Blanco, Juan Ignacio Peña, and Rosa Rodriguez, 2018. "Modelling Electricity Swaps with Stochastic Forward Premium Models," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  39. Spodniak, Petr & Collan, Mikael, 2018. "Forward risk premia in long-term transmission rights: The case of electricity price area differentials (EPAD) in the Nordic electricity market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 194-206.
  40. Guo, Zi-Yi, 2017. "Models with Short-Term Variations and Long-Term Dynamics in Risk Management of Commodity Derivatives," EconStor Preprints 167619, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
  41. Spodniak, Petr & Bertsch, Valentin, 2017. "Determinants of power spreads in electricity futures markets: A multinational analysis," Papers WP580, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  42. Capitán Herráiz, Álvaro & Rodríguez Monroy, Carlos, 2009. "Analysis of the efficiency of the Iberian power futures market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3566-3579, September.
  43. Coulon, Michael & Powell, Warren B. & Sircar, Ronnie, 2013. "A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 976-988.
  44. María Dolores Furió & Vicente Meneu, 2009. "Expectations and Forward Risk Premium in the Spanish Power Market," Working Papers. Serie AD 2009-02, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  45. Shao, Chengwu & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Colwell, David B., 2015. "A multi-factor model with time-varying and seasonal risk premiums for the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 207-214.
  46. Bonaldo, Cinzia & Caporin, Massimiliano & Fontini, Fulvio, 2022. "The relationship between day-ahead and future prices in electricity markets: An empirical analysis on Italy, France, Germany, and Switzerland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  47. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Analysis of risk premium in UK natural gas futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 621-636.
  48. Jacobs, Kris & Li, Yu & Pirrong, Craig, 2022. "Supply, demand, and risk premiums in electricity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  49. René Aïd & Luciano Campi & Nicolas Langrené, 2010. "A structural risk-neutral model for pricing and hedging power derivatives," Working Papers hal-00525800, HAL.
  50. Kallabis, Thomas & Pape, Christian & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 280-290.
  51. Erik Haugom & Peter Molnár & Magne Tysdahl, 2020. "Determinants of the Forward Premium in the Nord Pool Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, March.
  52. Giorgia Callegaro & Luciano Campi & Valeria Giusto & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2017. "Utility indifference pricing and hedging for structured contracts in energy markets," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 85(2), pages 265-303, April.
  53. Manner, Hans & Türk, Dennis & Eichler, Michael, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-265.
  54. Paraschiv, Florentina & Erni, David & Pietsch, Ralf, 2014. "The impact of renewable energies on EEX day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 196-210.
  55. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2023. "Theory of storage implications in the European natural gas market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
  56. Rene Carmona & Michael Coulon & Daniel Schwarz, 2012. "Electricity price modeling and asset valuation: a multi-fuel structural approach," Papers 1205.2299, arXiv.org.
  57. Pape, Christian & Hagemann, Simon & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "Are fundamentals enough? Explaining price variations in the German day-ahead and intraday power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 376-387.
  58. Erwan Pierre & Lorenz Schneider, 2024. "Intermittently coupled electricity markets," Post-Print hal-04411166, HAL.
  59. Furió, Dolores & Meneu, Vicente, 2010. "Expectations and forward risk premium in the Spanish deregulated power market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 784-793, February.
  60. Obermüller, Frank, 2017. "Explaining Electricity Forward Premiums - Evidence for the Weather Uncertainty Effect," EWI Working Papers 2017-10, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
  61. Estevão, João & Raposo, Clara, 2018. "The impact of the 2030 Climate and Energy Framework Agreement on electricity prices in MIBEL: A mixed-methods approach," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 411-417.
  62. Lyle, Matthew R. & Elliott, Robert J., 2009. "A 'simple' hybrid model for power derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 757-767, September.
  63. Pan, Zhiyuan & Xiao, Dongli & Dong, Qingma & Liu, Li, 2022. "Structural breaks, macroeconomic fundamentals and cross hedge ratio," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
  64. Ruoyang Li & Alva Svoboda & Shmuel Oren, 2015. "Efficiency impact of convergence bidding in the california electricity market," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 245-284, December.
  65. Peña, Juan Ignacio & Rodriguez, Rosa, 2016. "Time-zero efficiency of European power derivatives markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 253-268.
  66. Rubin, Ofir David, 2010. "Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002361, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  67. Pietz, Matthäus, 2009. "Risk premia in the German electricity futures market," CEFS Working Paper Series 2009-07, Technische Universität München (TUM), Center for Entrepreneurial and Financial Studies (CEFS).
  68. Spodniak, Petr & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "Is flexible and dispatchable generation capacity rewarded in electricity futures markets? A multinational impact analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
  69. Manner, Hans & Alavi Fard, Farzad & Pourkhanali, Armin & Tafakori, Laleh, 2019. "Forecasting the joint distribution of Australian electricity prices using dynamic vine copulae," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 143-164.
  70. Debbie Dupuis, Geneviève Gauthier, and Fréderic Godin, 2016. "Short-term Hedging for an Electricity Retailer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
  71. Elliott, Robert J. & Lyle, Matthew R. & Miao, Hong, 2010. "A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 838-847, July.
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