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A 'simple' hybrid model for power derivatives

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  • Lyle, Matthew R.
  • Elliott, Robert J.

Abstract

This paper presents a method for valuing power derivatives using a supply-demand approach. Our method extends work in the field by incorporating randomness into the base load portion of the supply stack function and equating it with a noisy demand process. We obtain closed form solutions for European option prices written on average spot prices considering two different supply models: a mean-reverting model and a Markov chain model. The results are extensions of the classic Black-Scholes equation. The model provides a relatively simple approach to describe the complicated price behaviour observed in electricity spot markets and also allows for computationally efficient derivatives pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Lyle, Matthew R. & Elliott, Robert J., 2009. "A 'simple' hybrid model for power derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 757-767, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:31:y:2009:i:5:p:757-767
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:dui:wpaper:1502 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2015. "Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 34-57.
    3. Andreas Wagner, 2014. "Residual Demand Modeling and Application to Electricity Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Niall Farrell & Mel T. Devine & William T. Lee & James P. Gleeson & Seán Lyons, 2017. "Specifying An Efficient Renewable Energy Feed-in Tariff," The Energy Journal, , vol. 38(2), pages 53-76, March.
    5. Fiuza de Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo & Daglish, Toby, 2016. "Can market power in the electricity spot market translate into market power in the hedge market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 11-26.
    6. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme & Lu, Andrea, 2013. "The role of storage in a competitive electricity market and the effects of climate change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 405-418.
    7. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19161 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Thomas Deschatre & Olivier F'eron & Pierre Gruet, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Papers 2103.16918, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    9. Damir Filipovic & Martin Larsson & Tony Ware, 2017. "Polynomial processes for power prices," Papers 1710.10293, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2018.
    10. Wieger Hinderks & Andreas Wagner & Ralf Korn, 2018. "A structural Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework for consistent intraday, spot, and futures electricity prices," Papers 1803.08831, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
    11. Füss, Roland & Mahringer, Steffen & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "Electricity Spot and Derivatives Pricing when Markets are Interconnected," Working Papers on Finance 1323, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    12. Evans, Lewis & lu, Yinjia (Andrea) & Guthrie, Graeme, 2010. "A New Zealand Electricity Market Model: Assessment of the effect of climate change on electricity production and consumption," Working Paper Series 19161, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    13. Coulon, Michael & Powell, Warren B. & Sircar, Ronnie, 2013. "A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 976-988.
    14. René Aïd & Luciano Campi & Nicolas Langrené, 2010. "A structural risk-neutral model for pricing and hedging power derivatives," Working Papers hal-00525800, HAL.
    15. de Braganca, Gabriel Fiuza & Daglish, Toby, 2012. "Can market power in the electricity spot market translate into market power in the hedge market?," Working Paper Series 4130, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    16. Lewis Evans & Greame Guthrie & Andrea Lu, 2010. "A New Zealand Electricity Market Model: Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Electricity Production and Consumption," Working Papers 10_09, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    17. Rene Carmona & Michael Coulon & Daniel Schwarz, 2012. "Electricity price modeling and asset valuation: a multi-fuel structural approach," Papers 1205.2299, arXiv.org.
    18. Pape, Christian & Hagemann, Simon & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "Are fundamentals enough? Explaining price variations in the German day-ahead and intraday power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 376-387.
    19. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19239 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. de Braganca, Gabriel Fiuza & Daglish, Toby, 2012. "Can market power in the electricity spot market translate into market power in the hedge market?," Working Paper Series 19239, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    21. Elliott, Robert J. & Lyle, Matthew R. & Miao, Hong, 2010. "A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 838-847, July.

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