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Forecasting risk with Markov-switching GARCH models:A large-scale performance study

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Cited by:

  1. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios & Stengos, Thanasis, 2022. "On the volatility of cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  2. Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Burkhanov, Aktam Usmanovich & Usmonov, Bunyod & Khajimuratov, Nizomjon Shukurullaevich & Khurramova, Madina Mansur qizi, 2024. "The role of sudden variance shifts in predicting volatility in bioenergy crop markets under structural breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
  3. Ataurima Arellano, Miguel & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2020. "Empirical modeling of high-income and emerging stock and Forex market return volatility using Markov-switching GARCH models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  4. Amaro, Raphael & Pinho, Carlos & Madaleno, Mara, 2022. "Forecasting the Value-at-Risk of energy commodities: A comparison of models and alternative distribution functions," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 65, pages 77-101.
  5. Ardia, David & Bluteau, Keven & Rüede, Maxime, 2019. "Regime changes in Bitcoin GARCH volatility dynamics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 266-271.
  6. Urom, Christian & Onwuka, Kevin O. & Uma, Kalu E. & Yuni, Denis N., 2020. "Regime dependent effects and cyclical volatility spillover between crude oil price movements and stock returns," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 10-29.
  7. Abdulkadir Kaya & İkram Yusuf Yarbaşı, 2021. "Forecasting of Volatility in Stock Exchange Markets by MS-GARCH Approach: An Application of Borsa Istanbul," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 6(1), pages 16-35.
  8. Scarcioffolo, Alexandre R. & Etienne, Xiaoli L., 2021. "Regime-switching energy price volatility: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 336-356.
  9. Ibrahim, Omar, 2019. "Modelling Risk on the Egyptian Stock Market: Evidence from a Markov-Regime Switching GARCH Process," MPRA Paper 98091, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2020. "Non-linearities, cyber attacks and cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
  11. Lu-Tao Zhao & Li-Na Liu & Zi-Jie Wang & Ling-Yun He, 2019. "Forecasting Oil Price Volatility in the Era of Big Data: A Text Mining for VaR Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-20, July.
  12. John Weirstrass Muteba Mwamba & Sutene Mwambetania Mwambi, 2021. "Assessing Market Risk in BRICS and Oil Markets: An Application of Markov Switching and Vine Copula," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, May.
  13. Halkos, George & Tsirivis, Apostolos, 2019. "Using Value-at-Risk for effective energy portfolio risk management," MPRA Paper 91674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Naeem, Muhammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mubashra, Sana & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2019. "Modeling volatility of precious metals markets by using regime-switching GARCH models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  15. Qiu, Zhiguo & Lazar, Emese & Nakata, Keiichi, 2024. "VaR and ES forecasting via recurrent neural network-based stateful models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  16. Carlos Trucíos & James W. Taylor, 2023. "A comparison of methods for forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall of cryptocurrencies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 989-1007, July.
  17. Yu, Xing & Li, Yanyan & Lu, Junli & Shen, Xilin, 2023. "Futures hedging in crude oil markets: A trade-off between risk and return," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  18. Toshiyuki Yam awake & Joseph Sheely & Roberto Serrano & Jiro Hodoshima, 2022. "Comparative Performance of Cryptocurrencies through the Aumann and Serrano Economic Index of Riskiness," Working Papers 2022-007, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  19. Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Shaiban, Mohammed Sharaf & Al-Freedi, Ajab, 2020. "Forecasting volatility in the petroleum futures markets: A re-examination and extension," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  20. Halkos, George & Tzirivis, Apostolos, 2018. "Effective energy commodities’ risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility," MPRA Paper 90781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  21. Hotta, Luiz Koodi & Trucíos Maza, Carlos César & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls & Zevallos Herencia, Mauricio Henrique, 2024. "Forecasting VaR and ES through Markov-switching GARCH models: does the specication matter?," Textos para discussão 567, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
  22. Davoodi, Shayan & Fereydooni, Ali & Rastegar, Mohammad Ali, 2024. "Can portfolio construction considering ESG still gain high profits?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
  23. Tomlinson, Matthew F. & Greenwood, David & Mucha-Kruczyński, Marcin, 2024. "2T-POT Hawkes model for left- and right-tail conditional quantile forecasts of financial log returns: Out-of-sample comparison of conditional EVT models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 324-347.
  24. Leopoldo Catania & Mads Sandholdt, 2019. "Bitcoin at High Frequency," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-20, February.
  25. Abdollahi, Hooman, 2020. "A novel hybrid model for forecasting crude oil price based on time series decomposition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
  26. Rewat Khanthaporn, 2022. "Analysis of Nonlinear Comovement of Benchmark Thai Government Bond Yields," PIER Discussion Papers 183, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  27. Chon, Sora & Kim, Jaeho, 2021. "Does the Financial Leverage Effect Depend on Volatility Regimes?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
  28. R. Rajesh, 2023. "Grey Markov Models for Predicting the Social Sustainability Performances of Firms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 297-351, August.
  29. Amaro, Raphael & Pinho, Carlos, 2022. "Energy commodities: A study on model selection for estimating Value-at-Risk," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 68, pages 5-27.
  30. Leandro Maciel, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies value‐at‐risk and expected shortfall: Do regime‐switching volatility models improve forecasting?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4840-4855, July.
  31. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Francisco Venegas-Martínez & Mᵃ Isabel Martínez-Torre-Enciso, 2021. "Enhancing Portfolio Performance and VIX Futures Trading Timing with Markov-Switching GARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22, January.
  32. Katleho Makatjane & Ntebogang Moroke, 2021. "Predicting Extreme Daily Regime Shifts in Financial Time Series Exchange/Johannesburg Stock Exchange—All Share Index," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, March.
  33. Hayet Ben Haj Hamida & Francesco Scalera, 2019. "Threshold Mean Reversion and Regime Changes of Cryptocurrencies using SETAR-MSGARCH Models," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 9(3), pages 221-229, July.
  34. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Zekokh, Timur, 2019. "Modelling volatility of cryptocurrencies using Markov-Switching GARCH models," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 143-155.
  35. Oscar V. De la Torre-Torres & Evaristo Galeana-Figueroa & José Álvarez-García, 2019. "A Test of Using Markov-Switching GARCH Models in Oil and Natural Gas Trading," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, December.
  36. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2020. "The M4 Competition: 100,000 time series and 61 forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 54-74.
  37. Abdessamad Ouchen, 2022. "Is the ESG portfolio less turbulent than a market benchmark portfolio?," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(1), pages 1-33, March.
  38. Olofsson, Petter & Råholm, Anna & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Troster, Victor & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Ethical and unethical investments under extreme market conditions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  39. Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Mensi, Walid & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Do Islamic stocks outperform conventional stock sectors during normal and crisis periods? Extreme co-movements and portfolio management analysis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  40. Achraf Ghorbel & Ahmed Jeribi, 2021. "Volatility spillovers and contagion between energy sector and financial assets during COVID-19 crisis period," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(3), pages 449-467, September.
  41. Vahidin Jeleskovic & Claudio Latini & Zahid I. Younas & Mamdouh A. S. Al-Faryan, 2023. "Optimization of portfolios with cryptocurrencies: Markowitz and GARCH-Copula model approach," Papers 2401.00507, arXiv.org.
  42. Arian, Hamid & Moghimi, Mehrdad & Tabatabaei, Ehsan & Zamani, Shiva, 2022. "Encoded Value-at-Risk: A machine learning approach for portfolio risk measurement," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 500-525.
  43. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
  44. Guo, Xiaozhu & Huang, Yisu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Forecasting volatility of EUA futures: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  45. Bogdan Dima & Ștefana Maria Dima, 2024. "The non-linear impact of monetary policy on shifts in economic policy uncertainty: evidence from the United States of America," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 755-781, August.
  46. Wu, Chuanzhen, 2021. "Window effect with Markov-switching GARCH model in cryptocurrency market," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  47. Huang, Yujun, 2024. "Do ESG ETFs provide downside risk protection during Covid-19? Evidence from forecast combination models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
  48. Igeland, Philip & Schroeder, Leon & Yahya, Muhammad & Okhrin, Yarema & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "The energy transition: The behavior of renewable energy stock during the times of energy security uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
  49. Huang, Yirong & Luo, Yi, 2024. "Forecasting conditional volatility based on hybrid GARCH-type models with long memory, regime switching, leverage effect and heavy-tail: Further evidence from equity market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
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