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Additive models and robust aggregation for GEFCom2014 probabilistic electric load and electricity price forecasting

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  1. Vijay, Avinash & Fouquet, Nicolas & Staffell, Iain & Hawkes, Adam, 2017. "The value of electricity and reserve services in low carbon electricity systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 111-123.
  2. Grzegorz Marcjasz, 2020. "Forecasting Electricity Prices Using Deep Neural Networks: A Robust Hyper-Parameter Selection Scheme," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-18, September.
  3. Jasiński, Tomasz, 2020. "Use of new variables based on air temperature for forecasting day-ahead spot electricity prices using deep neural networks: A new approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
  4. Andersson, Jonas & Sheybanivaziri, Samaneh, 2023. "Probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices using an augmented LMARX-model," Discussion Papers 2023/11, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
  5. Yuri S. Popkov & Alexey Yu. Popkov & Yuri A. Dubnov & Dimitri Solomatine, 2020. "Entropy-Randomized Forecasting of Stochastic Dynamic Regression Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-20, July.
  6. Florian Ziel & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate models," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  7. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
  8. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2018. "Probabilistic mid- and long-term electricity price forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-266.
  9. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2016. "Electricity price forecasting using sale and purchase curves: The X-Model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 435-454.
  10. Shao, Zhen & Zheng, Qingru & Yang, Shanlin & Gao, Fei & Cheng, Manli & Zhang, Qiang & Liu, Chen, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the electricity clearing price: A novel BELM based pattern classification framework and a comparative analytic study on multi-layer BELM and LSTM," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  11. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2018. "The influence of renewables on electricity price forecasting: a robust approach," Working Papers 2018/10, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
  12. Jeong, Dongyeon & Park, Chiwoo & Ko, Young Myoung, 2021. "Short-term electric load forecasting for buildings using logistic mixture vector autoregressive model with curve registration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PB).
  13. Arkadiusz Jędrzejewski & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafał Weron, 2021. "Importance of the Long-Term Seasonal Component in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Revisited: Parameter-Rich Models Estimated via the LASSO," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
  14. Fhulufhelo Walter Mugware & Caston Sigauke & Thakhani Ravele, 2024. "Evaluating Wind Speed Forecasting Models: A Comparative Study of CNN, DAN2, Random Forest and XGBOOST in Diverse South African Weather Conditions," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-28, August.
  15. Giancarlo Aquila & Lucas Barros Scianni Morais & Victor Augusto Durães de Faria & José Wanderley Marangon Lima & Luana Medeiros Marangon Lima & Anderson Rodrigo de Queiroz, 2023. "An Overview of Short-Term Load Forecasting for Electricity Systems Operational Planning: Machine Learning Methods and the Brazilian Experience," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(21), pages 1-35, November.
  16. Katarzyna Hubicka & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafal Weron, 2018. "A note on averaging day-ahead electricity price forecasts across calibration windows," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  17. Sheybanivaziri, Samaneh & Le Dréau, Jérôme & Kazmi, Hussain, 2024. "Forecasting price spikes in day-ahead electricity markets: techniques, challenges, and the road ahead," Discussion Papers 2024/1, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
  18. Olivares, Kin G. & Challu, Cristian & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał & Dubrawski, Artur, 2023. "Neural basis expansion analysis with exogenous variables: Forecasting electricity prices with NBEATSx," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 884-900.
  19. Berrisch, Jonathan & Ziel, Florian, 2024. "Multivariate probabilistic CRPS learning with an application to day-ahead electricity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1568-1586.
  20. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  21. Haben, Stephen & Giasemidis, Georgios & Ziel, Florian & Arora, Siddharth, 2019. "Short term load forecasting and the effect of temperature at the low voltage level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1469-1484.
  22. Stephen Haben & Julien Caudron & Jake Verma, 2021. "Probabilistic Day-Ahead Wholesale Price Forecast: A Case Study in Great Britain," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-37, August.
  23. Claudio Monteiro & Ignacio J. Ramirez-Rosado & L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez, 2018. "Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Models by Aggregation of Competitive Predictors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, April.
  24. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2023. "LASSO principal component averaging: A fully automated approach for point forecast pooling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1839-1852.
  25. Tomasz Serafin & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2019. "Averaging Predictive Distributions Across Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-12, July.
  26. Gunnhildur H. Steinbakk & Alex Lenkoski & Ragnar Bang Huseby & Anders L{o}land & Tor Arne {O}ig{aa}rd, 2018. "Using published bid/ask curves to error dress spot electricity price forecasts," Papers 1812.02433, arXiv.org.
  27. Monika Zimmermann & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Efficient mid-term forecasting of hourly electricity load using generalized additive models," Papers 2405.17070, arXiv.org.
  28. Wang, Shengjie & Kang, Yanfei & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2024. "Combining probabilistic forecasts of intermittent demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 315(3), pages 1038-1048.
  29. Zhang, Wenjie & Quan, Hao & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2018. "Parallel and reliable probabilistic load forecasting via quantile regression forest and quantile determination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 810-819.
  30. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting: Part II — Probabilistic forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 171-182.
  31. Aneeque A. Mir & Mohammed Alghassab & Kafait Ullah & Zafar A. Khan & Yuehong Lu & Muhammad Imran, 2020. "A Review of Electricity Demand Forecasting in Low and Middle Income Countries: The Demand Determinants and Horizons," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(15), pages 1-35, July.
  32. Liu, Luyao & Zhao, Yi & Chang, Dongliang & Xie, Jiyang & Ma, Zhanyu & Sun, Qie & Yin, Hongyi & Wennersten, Ronald, 2018. "Prediction of short-term PV power output and uncertainty analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 700-711.
  33. Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2023. "Multivariate Probabilistic CRPS Learning with an Application to Day-Ahead Electricity Prices," Papers 2303.10019, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
  34. Brégère, Margaux & Huard, Malo, 2022. "Online hierarchical forecasting for power consumption data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 339-351.
  35. Nikolaos Kolokas & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dimitrios Tzovaras, 2021. "Multi-Step Energy Demand and Generation Forecasting with Confidence Used for Specification-Free Aggregate Demand Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-36, May.
  36. Caston Sigauke & Murendeni Maurel Nemukula & Daniel Maposa, 2018. "Probabilistic Hourly Load Forecasting Using Additive Quantile Regression Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, August.
  37. Muniain, Peru & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Probabilistic forecasting in day-ahead electricity markets: Simulating peak and off-peak prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1193-1210.
  38. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2020. "Probabilistic electricity price forecasting with NARX networks: Combine point or probabilistic forecasts?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 466-479.
  39. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2024. "Regularization for electricity price forecasting," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 34(3), pages 267-286.
  40. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2016. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 228-235.
  41. Xinyi Wang & Qing Zhao & Lang Tong, 2024. "Probabilistic Forecasting of Real-Time Electricity Market Signals via Interpretable Generative AI," Papers 2403.05743, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
  42. Xu, Xiuqin & Chen, Ying & Goude, Yannig & Yao, Qiwei, 2021. "Day-ahead probabilistic forecasting for French half-hourly electricity loads and quantiles for curve-to-curve regression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120774, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  43. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2017. "Forecasting electricity prices through robust nonlinear models," Working Papers 06/2017, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  44. González Ordiano, Jorge Ángel & Gröll, Lutz & Mikut, Ralf & Hagenmeyer, Veit, 2020. "Probabilistic energy forecasting using the nearest neighbors quantile filter and quantile regression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 310-323.
  45. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Weronika Nitka, 2024. "Multiple split approach -- multidimensional probabilistic forecasting of electricity markets," Papers 2407.07795, arXiv.org.
  46. Bartosz Uniejewski & Jakub Nowotarski & Rafał Weron, 2016. "Automated Variable Selection and Shrinkage for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, August.
  47. Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2022. "Distributional modeling and forecasting of natural gas prices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(6), pages 1065-1086, September.
  48. Daniel Manfre Jaimes & Manuel Zamudio López & Hamidreza Zareipour & Mike Quashie, 2023. "A Hybrid Model for Multi-Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting considering Price Spikes," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-23, July.
  49. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafal Weron, 2017. "Importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting revisited: Neural network models," HSC Research Reports HSC/17/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  50. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
  51. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  52. Ziel, Florian, 2019. "Quantile regression for the qualifying match of GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1400-1408.
  53. Florian Ziel, 2020. "Load Nowcasting: Predicting Actuals with Limited Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-15, March.
  54. Avci, Ezgi & Ketter, Wolfgang & van Heck, Eric, 2018. "Managing electricity price modeling risk via ensemble forecasting: The case of Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 390-403.
  55. Tschora, Léonard & Pierre, Erwan & Plantevit, Marc & Robardet, Céline, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
  56. Norman Maswanganyi & Caston Sigauke & Edmore Ranganai, 2021. "Prediction of Extreme Conditional Quantiles of Electricity Demand: An Application Using South African Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-21, October.
  57. Grzegorz Marcjasz & Tomasz Serafin & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Selection of Calibration Windows for Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-20, September.
  58. Wang, Lin & Lv, Sheng-Xiang & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2018. "Effective sparse adaboost method with ESN and FOA for industrial electricity consumption forecasting in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 1013-1031.
  59. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "To combine or not to combine? Recent trends in electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/01, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology.
  60. Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafał Weron, 2018. "Efficient Forecasting of Electricity Spot Prices with Expert and LASSO Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-26, August.
  61. Lebotsa, Moshoko Emily & Sigauke, Caston & Bere, Alphonce & Fildes, Robert & Boylan, John E., 2018. "Short term electricity demand forecasting using partially linear additive quantile regression with an application to the unit commitment problem," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C), pages 104-118.
  62. Cornell, Cameron & Dinh, Nam Trong & Pourmousavi, S. Ali, 2024. "A probabilistic forecast methodology for volatile electricity prices in the Australian National Electricity Market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1421-1437.
  63. Keck, Felix & Lenzen, Manfred, 2021. "Drivers and benefits of shared demand-side battery storage – an Australian case study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  64. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: A new approach to probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
  65. Yang, Changhui & Meng, Chen & Zhou, Kaile, 2018. "Residential electricity pricing in China: The context of price-based demand response," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2870-2878.
  66. Brusaferri, Alessandro & Matteucci, Matteo & Spinelli, Stefano & Vitali, Andrea, 2022. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting through Bayesian Mixture Density Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
  67. van der Meer, D.W. & Widén, J. & Munkhammar, J., 2018. "Review on probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic power production and electricity consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1484-1512.
  68. Halužan, Marko & Verbič, Miroslav & Zorić, Jelena, 2020. "Performance of alternative electricity price forecasting methods: Findings from the Greek and Hungarian power exchanges," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
  69. Christopher Kath & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Optimal Order Execution in Intraday Markets: Minimizing Costs in Trade Trajectories," Papers 2009.07892, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2020.
  70. Jonathan Berrisch & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Distributional Modeling and Forecasting of Natural Gas Prices," Papers 2010.06227, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
  71. Díaz, Guzmán & Coto, José & Gómez-Aleixandre, Javier, 2019. "Prediction and explanation of the formation of the Spanish day-ahead electricity price through machine learning regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 610-625.
  72. VandenHeuvel, Daniel & Wu, Jinran & Wang, You-Gan, 2023. "Robust regression for electricity demand forecasting against cyberattacks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1573-1592.
  73. Xu, Xiuqin & Chen, Ying & Goude, Yannig & Yao, Qiwei, 2021. "Day-ahead probabilistic forecasting for French half-hourly electricity loads and quantiles for curve-to-curve regression," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
  74. Richard Bean, 2023. "Forecasting the Monash Microgrid for the IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-23, January.
  75. Marcjasz, Grzegorz & Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2019. "On the importance of the long-term seasonal component in day-ahead electricity price forecasting with NARX neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1520-1532.
  76. Yvenn Amara-Ouali & Yannig Goude & Pascal Massart & Jean-Michel Poggi & Hui Yan, 2021. "A Review of Electric Vehicle Load Open Data and Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-35, April.
  77. Antonio Bracale & Guido Carpinelli & Pasquale De Falco, 2019. "Developing and Comparing Different Strategies for Combining Probabilistic Photovoltaic Power Forecasts in an Ensemble Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-16, March.
  78. Smyl, Slawek & Hua, N. Grace, 2019. "Machine learning methods for GEFCom2017 probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1424-1431.
  79. Monika Zimmermann & Florian Ziel, 2024. "Spatial Weather, Socio-Economic and Political Risks in Probabilistic Load Forecasting," Papers 2408.00507, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.
  80. Micha{l} Narajewski & Florian Ziel, 2020. "Ensemble Forecasting for Intraday Electricity Prices: Simulating Trajectories," Papers 2005.01365, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
  81. Ziel, Florian & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting with high-dimensional structures: Univariate vs. multivariate modeling frameworks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 396-420.
  82. Narajewski, Michał & Ziel, Florian, 2020. "Ensemble forecasting for intraday electricity prices: Simulating trajectories," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
  83. Sigauke, Caston & Bere, Alphonce, 2017. "Modelling non-stationary time series using a peaks over threshold distribution with time varying covariates and threshold: An application to peak electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 152-166.
  84. Moreno-Carbonell, Santiago & Sánchez-Úbeda, Eugenio F. & Muñoz, Antonio, 2020. "Rethinking weather station selection for electric load forecasting using genetic algorithms," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 695-712.
  85. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Bartosz Uniejewski & Rafa{l} Weron, 2022. "Forecasting Electricity Prices," Papers 2204.11735, arXiv.org.
  86. Zhang, Shu & Wang, Yi & Zhang, Yutian & Wang, Dan & Zhang, Ning, 2020. "Load probability density forecasting by transforming and combining quantile forecasts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
  87. Uniejewski, Bartosz & Weron, Rafał, 2021. "Regularized quantile regression averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  88. Thorey, J. & Chaussin, C. & Mallet, V., 2018. "Ensemble forecast of photovoltaic power with online CRPS learning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 762-773.
  89. Léonard Tschora & Erwan Pierre & Marc Plantevit & Céline Robardet, 2022. "Electricity price forecasting on the day-ahead market using machine learning," Post-Print hal-03621974, HAL.
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