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Oil and the short-term predictability of stock return volatility

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  1. Wen, Fenghua & Zhang, Minzhi & Xiao, Jihong & Yue, Wei, 2022. "The impact of oil price shocks on the risk-return relation in the Chinese stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
  2. Chao Liang & Yin Liao & Feng Ma & Bo Zhu, 2022. "United States Oil Fund volatility prediction: the roles of leverage effect and jumps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2239-2262, May.
  3. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhang, Xiaotong & Li, Tingyu, 2023. "Forecasting stock return volatility in data-rich environment: A new powerful predictor," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  4. Xiao, Jihong & Chen, Xian & Li, Yang & Wen, Fenghua, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
  5. Dai, Zhifeng & Chang, Xiaoming, 2021. "Forecasting stock market volatility: Can the risk aversion measure exert an important role?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  6. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
  7. Ayedi Ahmed & Marjène Gana & Stéphane Goutte & Khaled Guesmi, 2023. "Managing Portfolio Risk During the BREXIT Crisis: A Cross-Quantilogram Analysis of Stock Markets and Commodities Across European Countries, the US, and BRICS," Working Papers halshs-04068651, HAL.
  8. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jiqian & Wang, Jianqiong, 2020. "Examining the predictive information of CBOE OVX on China’s oil futures volatility: Evidence from MS-MIDAS models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
  9. Yi, Yongsheng & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Yaojie & Huang, Dengshi, 2019. "Forecasting stock returns with cycle-decomposed predictors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 250-261.
  10. Yin, Libo & Su, Zhi & Lu, Man, 2022. "Is oil risk important for commodity-related currency returns?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
  11. Xu, Yongan & Liang, Chao & Wang, Jianqiong, 2023. "Financial stress and returns predictability: Fresh evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  12. Peng, Lijuan & Pan, Zhigang & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility predictability: A new insight from climate policy uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 688-700.
  13. Yin, Libo & Cao, Hong & Guo, Yumei, 2024. "The information content of Shanghai crude oil futures vs WTI benchmark: Evidence from temporal and spatial dimensions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  14. Wang, Jiqian & Lu, Xinjie & He, Feng & Ma, Feng, 2020. "Which popular predictor is more useful to forecast international stock markets during the coronavirus pandemic: VIX vs EPU?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  15. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhou, Huiting & Wen, Fenghua & He, Shaoyi, 2020. "Efficient predictability of stock return volatility: The role of stock market implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  16. Li, Xiafei & Liao, Yin & Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng, 2022. "An oil futures volatility forecast perspective on the selection of high-frequency jump tests," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
  17. Ding, Hui & Huang, Yisu & Wang, Jiqian, 2023. "Have the predictability of oil changed during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from international stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
  18. Zhang, Yaojie & Wahab, M.I.M. & Wang, Yudong, 2023. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility using variable selection and common factor," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 486-502.
  19. Zhu, Haibin & Bai, Lu & He, Lidan & Liu, Zhi, 2023. "Forecasting realized volatility with machine learning: Panel data perspective," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 251-271.
  20. Liang, Chao & Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Yang, Mo, 2022. "Whether dimensionality reduction techniques can improve the ability of sentiment proxies to predict stock market returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  21. Aganin, Artem & Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2018. "Volatility of ruble exchange rate: Oil and sanctions," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 52, pages 5-21.
  22. Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, 2023. "Tail risks and forecastability of stock returns of advanced economies: evidence from centuries of data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 466-481, March.
  23. Jiqian Wang & Rangan Gupta & Oğuzhan Çepni & Feng Ma, 2023. "Forecasting international REITs volatility: the role of oil-price uncertainty," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(14), pages 1579-1597, September.
  24. Chen, Yan & Qiao, Gaoxiu & Zhang, Feipeng, 2022. "Oil price volatility forecasting: Threshold effect from stock market volatility," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
  25. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Liu, Jing & Yang, Lin, 2020. "Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 684-694.
  26. Mengxi He & Yaojie Zhang & Yudong Wang & Danyan Wen, 2024. "Modelling and forecasting crude oil price volatility with climate policy uncertainty," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
  27. Liang, Chao & Ma, Feng & Li, Ziyang & Li, Yan, 2020. "Which types of commodity price information are more useful for predicting US stock market volatility?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 642-650.
  28. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2023. "Discovering the drivers of stock market volatility in a data-rich world," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  29. Qingjie Zhou & Panpan Zhu & Yinpeng Zhang, 2023. "Contagion Spillover from Bitcoin to Carbon Futures Pricing: Perspective from Investor Attention," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-22, January.
  30. Wei, Yu & Liang, Chao & Li, Yan & Zhang, Xunhui & Wei, Guiwu, 2020. "Can CBOE gold and silver implied volatility help to forecast gold futures volatility in China? Evidence based on HAR and Ridge regression models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
  31. Su, Zhi & Mo, Xuan & Yin, Libo, 2021. "Oil market uncertainty and excess returns on currency carry trade," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  32. He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Zeng, Qing & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Forecasting aggregate stock market volatility with industry volatilities: The role of spillover index," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  33. Chen, Wang & Lu, Xinjie & Wang, Jiqian, 2022. "Modeling and managing stock market volatility using MRS-MIDAS model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 625-635.
  34. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Liang, Chao, 2023. "Global economic policy uncertainty aligned: An informative predictor for crude oil market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1318-1332.
  35. Chen, Zhonglu & Ye, Yong & Li, Xiafei, 2022. "Forecasting China's crude oil futures volatility: New evidence from the MIDAS-RV model and COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  36. Alturki, Sultan & Olson, Eric, 2022. "Oil sentiment and the U.S. inflation premium," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  37. Liang, Chao & Luo, Qin & Li, Yan & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan, 2023. "Global financial stress index and long-term volatility forecast for international stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  38. Zhang, Yaojie & Lei, Likun & Wei, Yu, 2020. "Forecasting the Chinese stock market volatility with international market volatilities: The role of regime switching," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
  39. Li, Dakai, 2024. "Forecasting stock market realized volatility: The role of investor attention to the price of petroleum products," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 115-122.
  40. Jin, Daxiang & He, Mengxi & Xing, Lu & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting China's crude oil futures volatility: How to dig out the information of other energy futures volatilities?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  41. Yin, Libo & Feng, Jiabao & Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "It's not that important: The negligible effect of oil market uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 62-84.
  42. Zhang, Zhikai & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "Realized skewness and the short-term predictability for aggregate stock market volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  43. Xiao, Jihong & Jiang, Jiajie & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Policy uncertainty, investor sentiment, and good and bad volatilities in the stock market: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  44. Liang, Chao & Tang, Linchun & Li, Yan & Wei, Yu, 2020. "Which sentiment index is more informative to forecast stock market volatility? Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  45. Li, Tao & Ma, Feng & Zhang, Xuehua & Zhang, Yaojie, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: Novel evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 24-33.
  46. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhang, Xiaotong & Liang, Chao, 2024. "Efficient predictability of oil price: The role of VIX-based panic index shadow line difference," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  47. Zhang, Yaojie & He, Jiaxin & He, Mengxi & Li, Shaofang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility: A global perspective," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  48. Michael Frömmel & Eyup Kadioglu, 2023. "Impact of trading hours extensions on foreign exchange volatility: intraday evidence from the Moscow exchange," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, December.
  49. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
  50. Su, Zhi & Lu, Man & Yin, Libo, 2018. "Oil prices and news-based uncertainty: Novel evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 331-340.
  51. Avraham Turgeman & Claudiu Botoc & Marilen Pirtea & Octavian Jude, 0000. "Modelling Intraday Realized Volatility: The Role Of Vix, Oil And Gold," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 14115804, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
  52. Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq, 2021. "News-based equity market uncertainty and crude oil volatility," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
  53. He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and the stock return predictability of the oil industry," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  54. Wen, Danyan & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2024. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: A comprehensive look at uncertainty variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1022-1041.
  55. Chao Zhang & Xingyue Pu & Mihai Cucuringu & Xiaowen Dong, 2023. "Graph Neural Networks for Forecasting Multivariate Realized Volatility with Spillover Effects," Papers 2308.01419, arXiv.org.
  56. Ma, Feng & Wang, Jiqian & Wahab, M.I.M. & Ma, Yuanhui, 2023. "Stock market volatility predictability in a data-rich world: A new insight," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1804-1819.
  57. Charalampos Basdekis & Apostolos G. Christopoulos & Ioannis Katsampoxakis & Stylianos Xanthopoulos, 2024. "Trends and Challenges after the Impact of COVID-19 and the Energy Crisis on Financial Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-14, August.
  58. Demirer, Riza & Yuksel, Aydin & Yuksel, Asli, 2020. "Oil price uncertainty, global industry returns and active investment strategies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
  59. Jin, Daxiang & Yu, Jize, 2023. "Predicting cryptocurrency market volatility: Novel evidence from climate policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
  60. Nonejad, Nima, 2023. "Conditional out-of-sample predictability of aggregate equity returns and aggregate equity return volatility using economic variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-122.
  61. Ma, Feng & Guo, Yangli & Chevallier, Julien & Huang, Dengshi, 2022. "Macroeconomic attention, economic policy uncertainty, and stock volatility predictability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
  62. Wang, Jiqian & Ma, Feng & Bouri, Elie & Zhong, Juandan, 2022. "Volatility of clean energy and natural gas, uncertainty indices, and global economic conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  63. Zhang, Li & Li, Yan & Yu, Sixin & Wang, Lu, 2023. "Risk transmission of El Niño-induced climate change to regional Green Economy Index," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 860-872.
  64. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Huan & Dong, Xiaodi, 2020. "Forecasting Chinese industry return volatilities with RMB/USD exchange rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
  65. Liu, Guangqiang & Guo, Xiaozhu, 2022. "Forecasting stock market volatility using commodity futures volatility information," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  66. Lu, Xinjie & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jiqian & Zhu, Bo, 2021. "Oil shocks and stock market volatility: New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  67. Souropanis, Ioannis & Vivian, Andrew, 2023. "Forecasting realized volatility with wavelet decomposition," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  68. Sherif, Mohamed, 2020. "The impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on faith-based investments: An original analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
  69. Zhang, Zhikai & He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wang, Yudong, 2022. "Geopolitical risk trends and crude oil price predictability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
  70. Ji, Qiang & Bouri, Elie & Roubaud, David & Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2019. "Information interdependence among energy, cryptocurrency and major commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1042-1055.
  71. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "Crude oil price volatility and equity return predictability: A comparative out-of-sample study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
  72. Liu, Yuanyuan & Niu, Zibo & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Yin, Libo & Zhang, Hongwei, 2022. "Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures: The role of oil investor attention and its regime switching characteristics under a high-frequency framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
  73. Chao Liang & Yi Zhang & Yaojie Zhang, 2022. "Forecasting the volatility of the German stock market: New evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(9), pages 1055-1070, February.
  74. Guo, Yangli & He, Feng & Liang, Chao & Ma, Feng, 2022. "Oil price volatility predictability: New evidence from a scaled PCA approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  75. Wang, Ping & Han, Wei & Huang, Chengcheng & Duong, Duy, 2022. "Forecasting realised volatility from search volume and overnight sentiment: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  76. Chen, Wang & Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Liu, Jing, 2020. "Forecasting oil price volatility using high-frequency data: New evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
  77. Gao, Shang & Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Forecasting stock market volatility: The sum of the parts is more than the whole," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
  78. Liu, Yiye & Han, Liyan & Wu, You, 2022. "Can skewness predict CNY-CNH spread?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
  79. Cheng, Hang & Shi, Yongdong, 2020. "Forecasting China's stock market variance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  80. Song, Yixuan & He, Mengxi & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: A newspaper-based predictor regarding petroleum market volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  81. He, Mengxi & Zhang, Yaojie & Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil prices: A scaled PCA approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  82. Liu, Bing-Yue & Fan, Ying & Ji, Qiang & Hussain, Nazim, 2022. "High-dimensional CoVaR network connectedness for measuring conditional financial contagion and risk spillovers from oil markets to the G20 stock system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
  83. Guan, Keqin & Gong, Xu, 2023. "A new hybrid deep learning model for monthly oil prices forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  84. Chen, Yan & Liu, Yakun & Zhang, Feipeng, 2024. "Coskewness and the short-term predictability for Bitcoin return," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  85. Das, Debojyoti & Maitra, Debasish & Dutta, Anupam & Basu, Sankarshan, 2022. "Financial stress and crude oil implied volatility: New evidence from continuous wavelet transformation framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  86. Wu, Xi & Wang, Yudong & Tong, Xinle, 2021. "Cash holdings and oil price uncertainty exposures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  87. Yin, Libo & Wang, Yang, 2019. "Forecasting the oil prices: What is the role of skewness risk?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
  88. Nonejad, Nima, 2020. "A comprehensive empirical analysis of the predictive impact of the price of crude oil on aggregate equity return volatility," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
  89. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Rui & Ma, Xiang, 2020. "Heterogeneous dependence between crude oil price volatility and China’s agriculture commodity futures: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
  90. Lu, Botao & Ma, Feng & Wang, Jiqian & Ding, Hui & Wahab, M.I.M., 2021. "Harnessing the decomposed realized measures for volatility forecasting: Evidence from the US stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 672-689.
  91. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Understanding the conditional out-of-sample predictive impact of the price of crude oil on aggregate equity return volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  92. Chen, Zhonglu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Is investor sentiment stronger than VIX and uncertainty indices in predicting energy volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  93. Wang, Jiqian & Huang, Yisu & Ma, Feng & Chevallier, Julien, 2020. "Does high-frequency crude oil futures data contain useful information for predicting volatility in the US stock market? New evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  94. Yin, Libo & Feng, Jiabao & Han, Liyan, 2021. "Systemic risk in international stock markets: Role of the oil market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 592-619.
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