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Predicting cryptocurrency market volatility: Novel evidence from climate policy uncertainty

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  • Jin, Daxiang
  • Yu, Jize

Abstract

This study employs two mixed-frequency volatility models to examine the impact of climate policy uncertainty on cryptocurrency price volatility. The empirical findings reveal that climate policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on cryptocurrency price volatility and that this effect is mainly driven by extreme climate policy shocks. That is, abrupt and substantial shifts in climate policy lead to increased volatility in cryptocurrency prices. Moreover, different cryptocurrencies exhibit different responses to climate policy uncertainty. In addition, the predictive performance of the model that accounts for extreme shocks to climate policy uncertainty outperforms the basic GARCH-MIDAS-CPU model for all three cryptocurrencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Daxiang & Yu, Jize, 2023. "Predicting cryptocurrency market volatility: Novel evidence from climate policy uncertainty," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pc:s1544612323008929
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104520
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate policy uncertainty; Cryptocurrency market; GARCH-MIDAS;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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