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Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: The Turkish case

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  1. Luminita Gabriela ISTRATE & Bogdan Stefan IONESCU & Maria-Monica HARALAMBIE, 2016. "Aspects of the impact of interest rate development on the probability of default," The Audit Financiar journal, Chamber of Financial Auditors of Romania, vol. 14(142), pages 1149-1149, October.
  2. Jaizah Othman & Mehmet Asutay, 2018. "Integrated early warning prediction model for Islamic banks: the Malaysian case," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(2), pages 118-130, April.
  3. Tadele, Haileslasie & Roberts, Helen & Whiting, Rosalind H., 2018. "Microfinance institutions' website accessibility," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 279-293.
  4. Isik, Ihsan & Uygur, Ozge, 2021. "Financial crises, bank efficiency and survival: Theory, literature and emerging market evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 952-987.
  5. Fethi, Meryem Duygun & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2010. "Assessing bank efficiency and performance with operational research and artificial intelligence techniques: A survey," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 204(2), pages 189-198, July.
  6. Jos� Eduardo Gómez-González, 2012. "Failing and Merging as Competing Alternatives during Times of Financial Distress: Evidence from the Colombian Financial Crisis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 655-671, October.
  7. Gulcan Yildirim Gungor & Tuba Pelin Sumer, 2020. "Alternative Approaches for Modelling Corporate Sector Credit Risk," CBT Research Notes in Economics 2017, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  8. Douglas, Ella & Lont, David & Scott, Tom, 2014. "Finance company failure in New Zealand during 2006–2009: Predictable failures?," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 277-295.
  9. Ali Diabat & Udaya Shetty & T. Pakkala, 2015. "Improved efficiency measures through directional distance formulation of data envelopment analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 229(1), pages 325-346, June.
  10. San-Martín-Albizuri, Nerea & Rodríguez-Castellanos, Arturo, 2012. "Globalisation And The Unpredictability Of Crisis Episodes: An Empirical Analysis Of Country Risk Indexes / La Imprevisibilidad De Los Episodios De Crisis: Un Análisis Sobre Los Índices De Riesgo País ," Investigaciones Europeas de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa (IEDEE), Academia Europea de Dirección y Economía de la Empresa (AEDEM), vol. 18(2), pages 148-155.
  11. Sevim, Cuneyt & Oztekin, Asil & Bali, Ozkan & Gumus, Serkan & Guresen, Erkam, 2014. "Developing an early warning system to predict currency crises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 1095-1104.
  12. Pham, Xuan T.T. & Ho, Tin H., 2021. "Using boosting algorithms to predict bank failure: An untold story," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 40-54.
  13. Landajo, Manuel & de Andres, Javier & Lorca, Pedro, 2007. "Robust neural modeling for the cross-sectional analysis of accounting information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 1232-1252, March.
  14. Atkins, Philip J. & Cummins, Mark, 2023. "Improved scalability and risk factor proxying with a two-step principal component analysis for multi-curve modelling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1331-1348.
  15. Le, Hong Hanh & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Predicting bank failure: An improvement by implementing a machine-learning approach to classical financial ratios," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 16-25.
  16. Gutiérrez López, Cristina & Abad González, Julio, 2014. "¿Permitían los estados financieros predecir los resultados de los tests de estrés de la banca española? Una aplicación del modelo logit," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 58-70.
  17. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Anna Agrapetidou, 2022. "The resilience of the U.S. banking system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 2819-2835, July.
  18. Aykut Ekinci & Halil İbrahim Erdal, 2017. "Forecasting Bank Failure: Base Learners, Ensembles and Hybrid Ensembles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(4), pages 677-686, April.
  19. Ilyes Abid & Rim Ayadi & Khaled Guesmi & Farid Mkaouar, 2022. "A new approach to deal with variable selection in neural networks: an application to bankruptcy prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 605-623, June.
  20. Zeineb Affes & Rania Hentati-Kaffel, 2016. "Predicting US banks bankruptcy: logit versus Canonical Discriminant analysis," Post-Print halshs-01281948, HAL.
  21. Ahmadian , Azam & Mahsa , Gorji, 2015. "Modeling of Banks Bankruptcy in Iran (Multivariate Statistical Analysis)," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(2), pages 1-24, January.
  22. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
  23. Parnes, Dror & Gormus, Alper, 2024. "Prescreening bank failures with K-means clustering: Pros and cons," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
  24. Zhiyong Li & Chen Feng & Ying Tang, 2022. "Bank efficiency and failure prediction: a nonparametric and dynamic model based on data envelopment analysis," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(1), pages 279-315, August.
  25. Manthoulis, Georgios & Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Galariotis, Emilios, 2020. "An ordinal classification framework for bank failure prediction: Methodology and empirical evidence for US banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 786-801.
  26. Karabag, Solmaz Filiz, 2019. "Factors impacting firm failure and technological development: A study of three emerging-economy firms," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 462-474.
  27. Salvador Marín Hernández & Ester Gras Gil & Marcos Antón Renart, 2011. "Financial information and restructuring of spanish savings banks in a context of crisis. Changes in the regulation; content and evolution of FROB," CIRIEC-España, revista de economía pública, social y cooperativa, CIRIEC-España, issue 73, pages 99-126, October.
  28. Adel Hatami-Marbini & Siavash Hekmat & Per J. Agrell, 2022. "A strategy-based framework for supplier selection: a grey PCA-DEA approach," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 263-297, March.
  29. Zeineb Affes & Rania Hentati-Kaffel, 2019. "Predicting US Banks Bankruptcy: Logit Versus Canonical Discriminant Analysis," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 199-244, June.
  30. John A. Tatom & Reza Houston, 2011. "Predicting Failure in the Commercial Banking Industry," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-27, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
  31. Zeineb Affes & Rania Hentati-Kaffel, 2016. "Predicting US banks bankruptcy: logit versus Canonical Discriminant analysis," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01281948, HAL.
  32. Shih, Victor & Zhang, Qi & Liu, Mingxing, 2007. "Comparing the performance of Chinese banks: A principal component approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 15-34.
  33. Alina Mihaela Dima & Simona Vasilache, 2016. "Credit Risk modeling for Companies Default Prediction using Neural Networks," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 127-143, September.
  34. Javid Iqbal & Khalid Riaz, 2022. "Predicting future financial performance of banks from management’s tone in the textual disclosures," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2691-2721, August.
  35. Loredana Cultrera & Mélanie Croquet & Jérémy Jospin, 2017. "Predicting Bankruptcy of Belgian SMEs: A Hybrid Approach Based on Factorial Analysi," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(3), pages 33-41, March.
  36. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2018. "To be bailed out or to be left to fail? A dynamic competing risks hazard analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-85.
  37. Javid Iqbal, 2019. "Managerial Self-Attribution Bias and Banks’ Future Performance: Evidence from Emerging Economies," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-32, April.
  38. Bitar, Mohammad & Hassan, M. Kabir & Walker, Thomas, 2017. "Political systems and the financial soundness of Islamic banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 18-44.
  39. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2015. "Efficiency of the banking system in Vietnam under financial liberalization," OSF Preprints qsf6d, Center for Open Science.
  40. Федорова Е.А. & Гиленко Е.В., 2013. "Применение Моделей Бинарного Выбора Для Прогнозирования Банкротства Банков," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 49(1), pages 106-118, январь.
  41. Citterio, Alberto, 2024. "Bank failure prediction models: Review and outlook," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
  42. Bitar, Mohammad & Saad, Wadad & Benlemlih, Mohammed, 2016. "Bank risk and performance in the MENA region: The importance of capital requirements," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 398-421.
  43. Vu Thi Phuong Thao & Le Trung Thanh, 2021. "An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic and Bank-Specific Factors Affecting Bank Deposits in Vietnam," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(2), pages 172-183, April.
  44. Monteiro, Carlos M.F. & Dibb, Sally & Almeida, Luis Tadeu, 2010. "Revealing doctors' prescribing choice dimensions with multivariate tools: A perceptual mapping approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 909-920, March.
  45. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2018. "Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 353-370, March.
  46. José Alejandro Fernández Fernández & Virginia Bejarano Vázquez & Juan Antonio Vicente Virseda, 2019. "Evaluación de riesgos con Data Mining: el sistema financiero español," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 14(3), pages 309-328, Julio - S.
  47. Jean Armand Gnagne & Kevin Moran, 2018. "Monitoring Bank Failures in a Data-Rich Environment," Cahiers de recherche 1815, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
  48. Ravi Kumar, P. & Ravi, V., 2007. "Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 1-28, July.
  49. Muhammad Imran Qureshi & Adeela Rustam & Sehrish Rustam & Abdullah Bin Umar & Khalid Zaman, 2012. "Measuring Bank Branch Performance in Pakistan: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)," Oeconomics of Knowledge, Saphira Publishing House, vol. 4(4), pages 25-40, October.
  50. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
  51. Maiya Anokhina & Henry Penikas & Victor Petrov, 2014. "Identifying SIFI Determinants for Global Banks and Insurance Companies: Implications for D-SIFIs in Russia," DEM Working Papers Series 085, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  52. Lenka Papíková & Mário Papík, 2022. "Effects of classification, feature selection, and resampling methods on bankruptcy prediction of small and medium‐sized enterprises," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 254-281, October.
  53. Halil Erdal & Aykut Ekinci, 2013. "A Comparison of Various Artificial Intelligence Methods in the Prediction of Bank Failures," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(2), pages 199-215, August.
  54. Marina Maniati & Evangelos Sambracos, 2017. "Decision-making process in shipping finance: A stochastic approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1317083-131, January.
  55. Demyanyk, Yuliya & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2010. "Financial crises and bank failures: A review of prediction methods," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 315-324, October.
  56. Layla Khoja & Maxwell Chipulu & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2016. "Analysing corporate insolvency in the Gulf Cooperation Council using logistic regression and multidimensional scaling," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 483-518, April.
  57. Kashif Rashid & Adeela Rustam, 2014. "Comparative Analysis of Local and Foreign Banks Efficiency: A Case Study of Pakistan," Oeconomics of Knowledge, Saphira Publishing House, vol. 6(3), pages 7-52, August.
  58. Li Xian Liu & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2021. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Synthesis of Literature and Directions for Future Research," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
  59. Meral Varish Kiefer, 2014. "Bank failures and mergers in Turkey: 1992-2014," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 2(5), pages 31-49, October.
  60. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2009_035 is not listed on IDEAS
  61. Sanjeev Mittal & Pankaj Gupta & K. Jain, 2011. "Neural network credit scoring model for micro enterprise financing in India," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 3(3), pages 224-242, October.
  62. Karina ALVES & Aquiles KALATZIS & Alberto BORGES MATIAS, 2009. "Survival Analysis of Private Banks in Brazil," EcoMod2009 21500002, EcoMod.
  63. Filippopoulou, Chryssanthi & Galariotis, Emilios & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "An early warning system for predicting systemic banking crises in the Eurozone: A logit regression approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 344-363.
  64. Paradi, Joseph C. & Zhu, Haiyan, 2013. "A survey on bank branch efficiency and performance research with data envelopment analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 61-79.
  65. Psillaki, Maria & Tsolas, Ioannis E. & Margaritis, Dimitris, 2010. "Evaluation of credit risk based on firm performance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 873-881, March.
  66. Bitar, Mohammad & Madiès, Philippe & Taramasco, Ollivier, 2017. "What makes Islamic banks different? A multivariate approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 215-235.
  67. Vadlamani Ravi & Vadlamani Madhav, 2020. "Optimizing the reliability of a bank with Logistic Regression and Particle Swarm Optimization," Papers 2004.11122, arXiv.org.
  68. Ioannidis, Christos & Pasiouras, Fotios & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2010. "Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 345-357, October.
  69. Bitar, Mohammad & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Walker, Thomas, 2018. "The effect of capital ratios on the risk, efficiency and profitability of banks: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 227-262.
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