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Predicting failure in the commercial banking industry

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  • Tatom, John

Abstract

The ability to predict bank failure has become much more important since the mortgage foreclosure crisis began in 2007. The model proposed in this study uses proxies for the regulatory standards embodied in the so-called CAMELS rating system, as well as several local or national economic variables to produce a model that is robust enough to forecast bank failure for the entire commercial bank industry in the United States. This model is able to predict failure (survival) accurately for commercial banks during both the Savings and Loan crisis and the mortgage foreclosure crisis. Other important results include the insignificance of several factors proposed in the literature, including total assets, real price of energy, currency ratio and the interest rate spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Tatom, John, 2011. "Predicting failure in the commercial banking industry," MPRA Paper 34608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34608
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    17. Canbas, Serpil & Cabuk, Altan & Kilic, Suleyman Bilgin, 2005. "Prediction of commercial bank failure via multivariate statistical analysis of financial structures: The Turkish case," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 528-546, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Musdholifah Musdholifah & Ulil Hartono & Yulita Wulandari, 2020. "Banking Crisis Prediction: Emerging Crisis Determinants in Indonesian Banks," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 124-131.
    2. Yulita Wulandari & Musdholifah & Suhal Kusairi, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic and Internal Factors on Banking Distress," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 429-436.
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    4. Li Xian Liu & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2021. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Synthesis of Literature and Directions for Future Research," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    5. Meral Varish Kiefer, 2014. "Bank failures and mergers in Turkey: 1992-2014," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 2(5), pages 31-49, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank failure; banking crises; CAMELS ratings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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