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Predicting Failure in the Commercial Banking Industry

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  • John A. Tatom
  • Reza Houston

Abstract

The ability to predict bank failure has become much more important since the mortgage foreclosure crisis began in 2007. The model proposed in this study uses proxies for the regulatory standards embodied in the so-called CAMELS rating system, as well as several local or national economic variables to produce a model that is robust enough to forecast bank failure for the entire commercial bank industry in the United States. This model is able to predict failure (survival) accurately for commercial banks during both the savings and loan and the mortgage foreclosure crises. Other important results include the insignificance of several factors proposed in the literature, including total assets, real price of energy, currency ratio and the interest rate spread.

Suggested Citation

  • John A. Tatom & Reza Houston, 2011. "Predicting Failure in the Commercial Banking Industry," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-27, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:nfi:nfiwps:2011-wp-27
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    2. Yulita Wulandari & Musdholifah & Suhal Kusairi, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic and Internal Factors on Banking Distress," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 429-436.
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    5. Meral Varish Kiefer, 2014. "Bank failures and mergers in Turkey: 1992-2014," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 2(5), pages 31-49, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank failure; banking crises; CAMELS ratings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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