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Are currency crises predictable?

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
  2. Tassos Anastasatos & Constantina Manou, 2008. "Speculative Attacks on the Drachma and the Changeover to the Euro," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 31, pages 49-77, November.
  3. Tejada, César A. O. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2002. "Credibility and Reputation: An Application of the External Circumstances Model for the Real Plan," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 56(4), October.
  4. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Magdalena Tomczynska, 2000. "Early Indicators of Currency Crises. Review of some literature," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0208, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
  7. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
  8. David Fernando LOPEZ ANGARITA, 2006. "Nivel óptimo de Reservas Internacionales y crisis cambiaria en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 3273, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
  9. Frait, Jan & Komarek, Lubos, 2002. "Theoretical and empirical analysis of the debt-adjusted real exchange rate in selected transition economies during 1994 - 2001," Economic Research Papers 269459, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  10. Ivo Krznar, 2004. "Currency Crisis: Theory and Practice with Application to Croatia," Working Papers 12, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
  11. Christofides, Charis & Eicher, Theo S. & Papageorgiou, Chris, 2016. "Did established Early Warning Signals predict the 2008 crises?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 103-114.
  12. I.Igal Magendzo, 2002. "Are Devaluations Really Contractionary?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 182, Central Bank of Chile.
  13. Zhang, Xun & He, Zongyue & Zhu, Jiali & Li, Jing, 2018. "Quantity of finance and financial crisis: A non-monotonic investigation☆," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 129-139.
  14. Marc Flandreau & Juan H. Flores & Norbert Gaillard & Sebastián Nieto-Parra, 2010. "The End of Gatekeeping: Underwriters and the Quality of Sovereign Bond Markets, 1815–2007," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 53-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
  16. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June.
  17. Thomas Sattler & Stefanie Walter, 2010. "Monetary Credibility Vs. Voter Approval: Political Institutions And Exchange‐Rate Stabilization During Crises," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 392-418, November.
  18. Alexis Cruz-Rodríguez, 2014. "Is there a relationship between fiscal sustainability and currency crises? International evidence based on causality tests," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 7(1), pages 69-87, April.
  19. Karl Whelan, 2013. "Sovereign default and the euro," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 478-501, AUTUMN.
  20. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  21. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Camille Cornand, 2006. "The pros and cons of higher transparency: the case of speculative attacks," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 72(3), pages 215-246.
  22. Franz R. Hahn & Markus Marterbauer & Stephan Schulmeister & Jan Stankovsky, 1998. "Finanzkrise in Südostasien – Auswirkungen auf Österreich," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 71(3), pages 141-153, March.
  23. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1-5.
  24. Irfan Civcir, 2003. "Before the Fall, Was the Turkish Lira Overvalued?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 69-99, March.
  25. Ilene GRABEL, 2004. "Trip Wires And Speed Bumps: Managing Financial Risks And Reducing The Potential For Financial Crises In Developing Economies," G-24 Discussion Papers 33, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
  26. Tremblay, Rodrigue, 2000. "Les facteurs déclencheurs des crises financières internationales," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 76(3), pages 423-436, septembre.
  27. Krzysztof Spirzewski, 2008. "Exchange Crisis in Mexico in 1994–1995," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 21.
  28. Ryuzo Miyao, 2004. "Economic Fundamentals or Financial Panic? An Empirical Study on the Origins of the Asian Crisis," Discussion Paper Series 151, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  29. Gerardo Esquivel & Felipe Larrain B., 1999. "Currency Crises: Is Central America Different?," CID Working Papers 26A, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  30. Fazio, Giorgio, 2007. "Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1261-1291, December.
  31. Mustapha Djennas & Mohamed Benbouziane & Meriem Djennas, 2011. "An Approach of Combining Empirical Mode Decomposition and Neural Network Learning for Currency Crisis Forecasting," Working Papers 627, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jan 2011.
  32. Michael Bleaney & F. Gulcin Ozkan, 2011. "The structure of public debt and the choice of exchange rate regime," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(1), pages 325-339, February.
  33. Holtemöller, Oliver & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Exchange rate regime, real misalignment and currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 5-14.
  34. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou, 2016. "Currency Misalignments in emerging and developing countries: reassessing the role of Exchange Rate Regimes," Post-Print hal-01549901, HAL.
  35. Tassos G. Anastasatos & Ian R. Davidson, 2006. "How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study Using Multiple-Response Models," Working Papers 52, Bank of Greece.
  36. Sotiris Staikouras, 2004. "A chronicle of the banking and currency crises," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(14), pages 873-878.
  37. Carl Grekou, 2016. "Does the exchange rate regime shape currency misalignments in emerging and developing countries?," Working Papers hal-04141583, HAL.
  38. Gustav A. Horn & Mechthild Schrooten, 1999. "Twin Crisis in Asia: The Failure of Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes and Delayed Institutional Adjustment," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 68(1), pages 10-21.
  39. Galindo, Arturo J. & Maloney, William F., 2002. "Second moments in speculative attack models: panel evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 97-129, January.
  40. Carl Grekou, 2016. "Does the exchange rate regime shape currency misalignments in emerging and developing countries?," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-26, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  41. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
  42. Kaufmann, Daniel & Mehrez, Gil & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2005. "Predicting currency fluctuations and crises: Do resident firms have an informational advantage?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 1012-1029, October.
  43. Jane Sneddon Little & Giovanni P. Olivei, 1999. "Why the interest in reforming the International Monetary System?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 53-84.
  44. Cruz-Rodríguez Alexis, 2013. "The Relationship between Fiscal Sustainability and Currency Crises in Some Selected Countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 13(4), pages 176-194, December.
  45. Marek Dabrowski, 2002. "Currency Crises in Emerging - Market Economis: Causes, Consequences and Policy Lessons," CASE Network Reports 0051, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  46. Michael Chui, 2002. "Leading indicators of balance-of-payments crises: a partial review," Bank of England working papers 171, Bank of England.
  47. Pozo, Susan & Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, 2003. "Statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 591-609, August.
  48. Jeffrey A. Frankel & George Saravelos, 2010. "Are Leading Indicators of Financial Crises Useful for Assessing Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 Global Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Klaus Abberger & Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Chang Woon Nam & Gernot Nerb & Siegfried Schönherr, 2014. "How Can the Crisis Vulnerability of Emerging Economies Be Reduced?," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
  50. Mr. Seung M Choi & Ms. Laura E. Kodres & Jing Lu, 2018. "Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Linkages, Contagious Banking Crises, and “Coordinated” Macroprudential Policies," IMF Working Papers 2018/009, International Monetary Fund.
  51. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2007. "Estimating systemic risk in the international financial system," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 835-869, December.
  52. Komarek, Lubos & Melecky, Martin, 2005. "Currency Crises, Current Account Reversals and Growth: The Compounded Effect for Emerging Markets," Economic Research Papers 269628, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
  53. Lee J. Alston & Andres Gallo, 2000. "Evolution and Revolution in the Argentine Banking System under Convertibility: The Roles of Crises and Path Dependence," NBER Working Papers 8008, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  54. Jon Frost & Ayako Saiki, 2014. "Early Warning for Currency Crises: What Is the Role of Financial Openness?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 722-743, September.
  55. Franz R. Hahn & Markus Marterbauer & Stephan Schulmeister & Jan Stankovsky, 1998. "The Financial Crisis in South-East Asia – Its Impact on Austria," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 3(2), pages 71-83, April.
  56. Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, Maria, 2000. "Periods of Currency Pressure: Stylized Facts and Leading Indicators," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 125-158, January.
  57. Gerardo Esquivel & Felipe Larraín, 2003. "¿Qué Sabemos Realmente sobre las Crisis Cambiarias?," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(121), pages 656-667.
  58. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Mishra, Sagarika, 2013. "Has the structural break slowed down growth rates of stock markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 595-601.
  59. MIYAO Ryuzo, 2002. "Another Look at Origins of the Asian Crisis: Tests of External Borrowing Constraints," ESRI Discussion paper series 011, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  60. Marina Halac & Sergio Schmukler, 2003. "Distributional effects of crises : the role of financial transfers," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3173, The World Bank.
  61. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
  62. Mr. Ranil M Salgado & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 2000/055, International Monetary Fund.
  63. André Cartapanis & Vincent Dropsy & Sophie Mametz, 2002. "The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 79-91, February.
  64. Fu, Junhui & Zhou, Qingling & Liu, Yufang & Wu, Xiang, 2020. "Predicting stock market crises using daily stock market valuation and investor sentiment indicators," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
  65. Beckmann, Daniela & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sawischlewski, Katja, 2006. "Robust lessons about practical early warning systems," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 163-193, February.
  66. Sell, Friedrich L., 1999. "Risiken für die Emerging Markets in Mittel- und Osteuropa vor dem Hintergrund der Erfahrungen Thailands, Mexikos und Tschechiens," Working Papers in Economics 1999,3, Bundeswehr University Munich, Economic Research Group.
  67. Alexis Cruz Rodriguez, 2011. "Prediction of Currency Crises Using a Fiscal Sustainability Indicator," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 26(2), pages 39-60, December.
  68. Kirrane, Chris, 2018. "What Caused the Asian Currency?," MPRA Paper 93643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  69. Bacha, Obiyathulla I., 1997. "The Asian Currency Crisis - A Fait Accompli?," MPRA Paper 12756, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  70. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2003. "A simple model of international capital flows, exchange rate risk, and portfolio choice," Working Papers 2000-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  71. Tassos Anastasatos & Ian R. Davidson, 2004. "How Homogenous are Currency Crises? A Panel Study using Multiple-Response Models," Discussion Paper Series 2004_23, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Dec 2004.
  72. Seung Mo Choi & Laura E. Kodres & Jing Lu, 2021. "Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Links, Contagious Banking Crises, and Joint Use of Macroprudential Policies," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 55-79, August.
  73. Marcin Sasin, 2002. "Predicting Currency Crises, the Ultimate Significance of Macroeconomic Fundamentals in Linear Specifications with Nonlinear Extensions," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0224, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  74. S. DeVicerte & P. Alvarez & J. Perez & C. Caso, 2008. "Does currency crisis identification matter?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(5), pages 387-395.
  75. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2015. "Sostenibilidad fiscal y crisis cambiarias: Un análisis empírico [Fiscal sustainability and currency crises: An empirical analysis]," MPRA Paper 67741, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  76. Josef C. Brada & Vladimír Tomšík, 2004. "Zahraniční investice a náchylnost k měnovým krizím: zkušenosti tranzitivních ekonomik [Foreign investment and perceptions of vulnerability to foreign exchange crises: evidence from transition econo," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2004(3), pages 313-329.
  77. Shimpalee, Pattama L. & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2006. "Currency crises and institutions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 125-145, February.
  78. Brana, Sophie & Chenaf-Nicet, Dalila, 2001. "Indicateurs avancés de crise de change : un examen critique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 77(4), pages 569-592, décembre.
  79. André Cartapanis & Vincent Dropsy & Sophie Mametz, 1999. "Indicateurs d'alerte et crises de change. Analyse comparée des économies d'Europe centrale et orientale (1990-1997) et d'Amérique latine et d'Asie de l'Est (1971-1997)," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1237-1254.
  80. Cruz-Rodriguez, Alexis, 2014. "¿Puede un índice de sostenibilidad fiscal predecir la ocurrencia de crisis cambiarias? Evidencias para algunos países seleccionados [Can a fiscal sustainability indicator predict the occurrence of ," MPRA Paper 54103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  81. Sever, Can, 2021. "Political booms and currency crises," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  82. Kirrane, Christopher, 2018. "The Causes of Asian Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 89103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  83. Ilene Grabel, 2003. "Predicting Financial Crisis in Developing Economies: Astronomy or Astrology?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 243-258, Spring.
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