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Indicateurs d'alerte et crises de change. Analyse comparée des économies d'Europe centrale et orientale (1990-1997) et d'Amérique latine et d'Asie de l'Est (1971-1997)

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  • André Cartapanis
  • Vincent Dropsy
  • Sophie Mametz

Abstract

[fre] Indicateurs d'alerte et crises de change Analyse comparée des économies d'Europe centrale et orientale ( 1990-1997) et d'Amérique latine et d'Asie de l'Est (1971-1997). . Cet article a pour objet d'évaluer la fiabilité d'un ensemble d'indicateurs de vulnérabilité à une crise de change en s'appuyant sur l'expérience des pays émergents d'Amérique latine et d'Asie entre 1970 et 1997, et des pays d'Europe centrale et orientale (1990-1998). On s'intéresse plus particulièrement à la Russie et à la République tchèque dont la politique d'ancrage nominal du taux de change a dû être abandonnée, en mai 1997, face à la perte de confiance des investisseurs internationaux. [eng] Leading indicators and currency crisis in central europe, latin america and East Asia countries. . The objective of this paper is to estimate the significance of various economic indicators of vulnerability to a currency crisis in a model based on the experience of Latin America and East Asia, and of eastern countries over the last two decades. The leading indicators models are then applied to the Czech Republic and Russia to infer whether their respective currency crises in 1997 and 1998 are related to financial fragility or strong macroeconomic imbalances.

Suggested Citation

  • André Cartapanis & Vincent Dropsy & Sophie Mametz, 1999. "Indicateurs d'alerte et crises de change. Analyse comparée des économies d'Europe centrale et orientale (1990-1997) et d'Amérique latine et d'Asie de l'Est (1971-1997)," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(6), pages 1237-1254.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1999_num_50_6_410144
    DOI: 10.3406/reco.1999.410144
    Note: DOI:10.3406/reco.1999.410144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaminsky, Graciela L & Reinhart, Carmen M, 1998. "Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 444-448, May.
    2. Takatoshi Ito & Peter Isard & Steven Symansky, 1999. "Economic Growth and Real Exchange Rate: An Overview of the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Asia," NBER Chapters, in: Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries: Theory, Practice, and Policy Issues, pages 109-132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    5. Takatoshi Ito & Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Mr. Peter Isard & Mr. Steven A. Symansky, 1996. "Exchange Rate Movements and Their Impact on Trade and Investment in the APEC Region," IMF Occasional Papers 1996/011, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Assaf Razin & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 1996. "Current Account Sustainability: Selected East Asian and Latin American Experiences," IMF Working Papers 1996/110, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Milesi-Ferretti, G-M & Razin, A, 1996. "Current-Account Sustainability," Princeton Studies in International Economics 81, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    8. Goldfajn, Ilan & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 1998. "Are currency crises predictable?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 873-885, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lendjoungou, Francis, 2009. "Competitiveness and the real exchange rate: the standpoint of countries in the CEMAC zone," MPRA Paper 17053, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Andre Cartapanis, 2004. "Le declenchement des crises de change : qu'avons-nous appris depuis dix ans ?," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 97, pages 5-48.
    3. Thierry Apoteker, 2001. "Transformation of the Polish, Czech and Hungarian Banking Systems: are there Systemic Fragilities?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 6(1), pages 415-426.

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