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Chronicle of a War Foretold: The Macroeconomic Effects of Anticipated Defense Spending Shocks

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Cited by:

  1. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2019. "Episodes of war and peace in an estimated open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 203-249.
  2. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2022. "Are government spending shocks inflationary at the zero lower bound? New evidence from daily data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  3. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News-Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 993-1074, December.
  4. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
  5. Regis Barnichon & Davide Debortoli & Christian Matthes, 2022. "Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It’s in the Sign," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 87-117.
  6. Brianti, Marco & Gáti, Laura, 2023. "Information and communication technologies and medium-run fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
  7. Laurent Ferrara & Luca Metelli & Filippo Natoli & Daniele Siena, 2020. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation," Working papers 752, Banque de France.
  8. Fritsche, Jan Philipp & Klein, Mathias & Rieth, Malte, 2021. "Government spending multipliers in (un)certain times," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
  9. Furceri, Davide & Loungani, Prakash & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2018. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on inequality," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 168-186.
  10. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
  11. Boug, Pål & Brasch, Thomas von & Cappelen, Ådne & Hammersland, Roger & Hungnes, Håvard & Kolsrud, Dag & Skretting, Julia & Strøm, Birger & Vigtel, Trond C., 2023. "Fiscal policy, macroeconomic performance and industry structure in a small open economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  12. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko & Schabert, Andreas, 2022. "Why are fiscal multipliers moderate even under monetary accommodation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  13. João Tovar Jalles, 2020. "The impact of financial crises on the environment in developing countries," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 281-306, June.
  14. Ascari, Guido & Beck-Friis, Peder & Florio, Anna & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2023. "Fiscal foresight and the effects of government spending: It’s all in the monetary-fiscal mix," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 1-15.
  15. Haroon Mumtaz & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2023. "The Federal Reserve'S Implicit Inflation Target And Macroeconomic Dynamics: An Svar Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1749-1775, November.
  16. Kjell Hausken & John F. Moxnes, 2019. "Innovation, Development and National Indices," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 1165-1188, February.
  17. Tovar Jalles, João & Park, Donghyun & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Public and Private Investment as Catalysts for Growth: An analysis of emerging markets and developing economies with a focus on Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  18. Simona Lorena Comi & Elena Cottini & Claudio Lucifora, 2020. "The effect of retirement on social relationships: new evidence from SHARE," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def088, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
  19. Emilio Colombo & Davide Furceri & Pietro Pizzuto & Patrizio Tirelli, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers and Informality," DISEIS - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo dis2201, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimento di Economia internazionale, delle istituzioni e dello sviluppo (DISEIS).
  20. Abiad (ADB), Abdul & Furceri (IMF and University of Palermo), Davide & Topalova (IMF), Petia, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-240.
  21. Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou & Andromachi Partheniou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2022. "A functional classification analysis of government spending multipliers," Working Papers 298, Bank of Greece.
  22. Jalles, João Tovar & Park , Donghyun & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Public versus Private Investment Multipliers in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Cross-Country Analysis with a Focus on Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 737, Asian Development Bank.
  23. Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2019. "Mood Swings and Business Cycles: Evidence from Sign Restrictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1623-1649, September.
  24. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2019. "What Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 52(1), pages 78-93, March.
  25. Aloui, Rym, 2024. "Habit formation and the government spending multiplier," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  26. Nadav Ben Zeev & Christopher Gunn & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "Monetary News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1793-1820, October.
  27. Antonello D'Alessandro & Giulio Fella & Leonardo Melosi, 2019. "Fiscal Stimulus With Learning‐By‐Doing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1413-1432, August.
  28. Ben Zeev, Nadav & Pappa, Evi, 2015. "Multipliers of unexpected increases in defense spending: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 205-226.
  29. Latifi, Albina & Naboka-Krell, Viktoriia & Tillmann, Peter & Winker, Peter, 2024. "Fiscal policy in the Bundestag: Textual analysis and macroeconomic effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
  30. Désirée I. Christofzik & Angela Fuest & Robin Jessen, 2022. "Macroeconomic Effects of the Anticipation and Implementation of Tax Changes in Germany: Evidence from a Narrative Account," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(353), pages 62-81, January.
  31. Christian Bredemeier & Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2021. "Why Are Fiscal Multipliers Moderate Even Under Monetary Accommodation?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 074, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  32. Ansgar Belke & Pascal Goemans, 2021. "Uncertainty and nonlinear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: a SEIVAR-based analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 623-646, May.
  33. Markus Brückner & Evi Pappa, 2015. "News Shocks in the Data: Olympic Games and Their Macroeconomic Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(7), pages 1339-1367, October.
  34. Rodriguez-Lopez, Jesus & Solis-Garcia, Mario, 2018. "Defense spending and fiscal multipliers: it's all in the variance," MPRA Paper 86911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Goemans, Pascal & Belke, Ansgar, 2019. "Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: A SEIVAR-based analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203538, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  36. Dake Li & Mikkel Plagborg-M{o}ller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections vs. VARs: Lessons From Thousands of DGPs," Papers 2104.00655, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
  37. Ansgar Belke & Steffen Elstner & Svetlana Rujin, 2022. "Growth Prospects and the Trade Balance in Advanced Economies," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(5), pages 1209-1234, October.
  38. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  39. Melosi, Leonardo & Morita, Hiroshi & Rogantini Picco, Anna & Zanetti, Francesco, 2024. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1512, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  40. Gregory E. Givens, 2022. "Unemployment, Partial Insurance, And The Multiplier Effects Of Government Spending," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(2), pages 571-599, May.
  41. Romain Duval & Davide Furceri, 2018. "The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 31-69, March.
  42. Karamysheva, Madina & Skrobotov, Anton, 2022. "Do we reject restrictions identifying fiscal shocks? identification based on non-Gaussian innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  43. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi & Chiara Punzo, 2022. "Nonlinearities and expenditure multipliers in the Eurozone [Tales of fiscal adjustment]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 552-575.
  44. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2016. "Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 107-118.
  45. Lee, Eun Kyung & Park, Kwangyong, 2021. "Identifying government spending shocks and multipliers in Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  46. Härtl, Tilmann, 2022. "Identifying Proxy VARs with Restrictions on the Forecast Error Variance," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264071, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  47. Stéphane Auray & Aurélien Eyquem, 2014. "War, Taxes and Trade," Working Papers 2014-29, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
  48. Jalles, Joao Tovar, 2019. "Crises and emissions: New empirical evidence from a large sample," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 880-895.
  49. Ricardo Duque Gabriel & Mathias Klein & Ana Sofia Pessoa, 2023. "The Effects of Government Spending in the Eurozone," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1397-1427.
  50. Masten, Igor & Grdović Gnip, Ana, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of public investment in South-East Europe," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1179-1194.
  51. Ricco, Giovanni, 2015. "A new identification of fiscal shocks based on the information flow," Working Paper Series 1813, European Central Bank.
  52. Olejnik, Łukasz Wiktor, 2023. "Short-run multiplier effects of military expenditures in NATO's Eastern Flank countries in 1999–2021," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1344-1355.
  53. Masataka Eguchi & Yuhki Hosoya & Mai Yamada, 2023. "The Consumption Multiplier of Government Spending: The Role of Substitutability between Government Spending and Leisure," ISER Discussion Paper 1211, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  54. Syed M. Hussain & Lin Liu, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of discretionary tax changes in Canada: Evidence from a new narrative measure of tax shocks," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(1), pages 78-107, February.
  55. Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban, 2023. "Time-varying stock return correlation, news shocks, and business cycles," Discussion Papers 05/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  56. Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay & Rui Sun, 2020. "Size matters: measuring the effects of inequality and growth shocks," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-177, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  57. Konstantinou, Panagiotis Th. & Partheniou, Andromachi, 2021. "The Effects of Government Spending Over the Business Cycle: A Disaggregated Analysis for OECD and Non-OECD Countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 809-822.
  58. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2022. "How do income and the debt position of households propagate fiscal stimulus into consumption?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  59. Laumer, Sebastian, 2020. "Government spending and heterogeneous consumption dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
  60. Huang, Kevin X.D. & Liu, Fengqi & Meng, Qinglai & Xue, Jianpo, 2022. "Keeping up with the Joneses and the consumption response to government spending," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
  61. Leonardo Melosi & Hiroshi Morita & Anna Rogantini Picco & Francesco Zanetti, 2024. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," Economics Series Working Papers 1053, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  62. Kang, Jihye & Kim, Soyoung, 2022. "Government spending news and surprise shocks: It’s the timing and persistence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
  63. Jørgensen, Peter L. & Ravn, Søren H., 2022. "The inflation response to government spending shocks: A fiscal price puzzle?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
  64. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  65. Shingo Watanabe, 2019. "What Do British Historical Data Tell Us About Government Spending Multipliers?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1141-1162, April.
  66. Alvaro Fernandez-Gallardo & Ivan Paya, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy in the Euro Area," Working Papers 307121127, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  67. Favero, Carlo A. & Karamysheva, Madina, 2015. "What Do We Know About Fiscal Multipliers?," CEPR Discussion Papers 10986, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  68. Michal Hlavacek & Ilgar Ismayilov, 2022. "Meta-analysis: Fiscal Multiplier," Working Papers IES 2022/07, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2022.
  69. Jesús Rodríguez-López & Mario Solís-García, 2020. "On the Magnitude of the Expenditure Multiplier," Working Papers 20.05, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  70. Nelimarkka, Jaakko, 2017. "The effects of government spending under anticipation: the noncausal VAR approach," MPRA Paper 81303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  71. Colombo, Emilio & Furceri, Davide & Pizzuto, Pietro & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2024. "Public expenditure multipliers and informality," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
  72. Francesco Zanetti & Leonardo Melosi & Hiroshi Morita & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2024. "The Signaling Effects of Fiscal Announcements," CIGS Working Paper Series 24-017E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
  73. Byung Ho Lee & Kwangyong Park, 2023. "External Information and Fiscal Multipliers," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 39, pages 347-379.
  74. Aragón, Edilean Kleber da Silva Bejarano & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2023. "Shock-based inference on the Phillips curve with the cost channel," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  75. Montiel Olea, José L. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2021. "Inference in Structural Vector Autoregressions identified with an external instrument," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(1), pages 74-87.
  76. Yong, Chen & Dingming, Liu, 2019. "How does government spending news affect interest rates? Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
  77. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2022. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9678, CESifo.
  78. NAM, Deokwoo & LI, Xiaole, 2024. "The Stimulative Effects of Anticipated Government Spending Expansions : Evidence from Survey Forecasts," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 65(1), pages 1-31, June.
  79. Rüth, Sebastian K. & Simon, Camilla, 2020. "How Do Income and the Debt Position of Households Propagate Public into Private Spending?," Working Papers 0676, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  80. Takumah, Wisdom, 2021. "Effects of government spending on consumption Dynamics," MPRA Paper 109171, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jul 2021.
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