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The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields

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Cited by:

  1. Corrado Macchiarelli, 2013. "On the Joint Test of the Uncovered Interest Parity and the Ex-ante Purchasing Power Parity," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 519-535, August.
  2. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis with survey forecasts: The impacts of consumer sentiment and the zero lower bound in an I(2) CVAR," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 85-101.
  3. Sowmya, Subramaniam & Prasanna, Krishna & Bhaduri, Saumitra, 2016. "Linkages in the term structure of interest rates across sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 118-139.
  4. Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2007. "Expectations Hypothesis Tests in the Presence of Model Uncertainty," Discussion Paper Series 0703, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
  5. Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Revisiting the predictability of bond risk premia," Working Papers 2009-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. James McNeil, 2020. "Estimation of Impulse response functions with term structure local projections," Working Papers daleconwp2020-05, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
  7. Marfatia, Hardik A., 2015. "Monetary policy's time-varying impact on the US bond markets: Role of financial stress and risks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 103-123.
  8. Sarno, Lucio & Schneider, Paul & Wagner, Christian, 2016. "The economic value of predicting bond risk premia," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 247-267.
  9. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  10. Karsten Schweikert, 2022. "Detecting Multiple Structural Breaks in Systems of Linear Regression Equations with Integrated and Stationary Regressors," Papers 2201.05430, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
  11. Thornton, Daniel L., 2014. "Monetary policy: Why money matters (and interest rates don’t)," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 202-213.
  12. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we need to go to now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 94(Jan), pages 65-81.
  13. Silva Lopes, Artur C. & Monteiro, Olga Susana, 2007. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Some Empirical Evidence for Portugal," MPRA Paper 6310, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Dec 2007.
  14. Lassaâd Mbarek & Hardik A. Marfatia & Sonja Juko, 2018. "Time-varying Response of Treasury Yields to Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Tunisian Bond Market," Working Papers 1243, Economic Research Forum, revised 23 Oct 2018.
  15. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2013. "The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 24-34.
  16. Guidolin, Massimo & Thornton, Daniel L., 2018. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 636-664.
  17. Daniel L. Thornton, 2018. "Greenspan's Conundrum and the Fed's Ability to Affect Long‐Term Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 513-543, March.
  18. Dong Heon Kim, 2008. "Another Look at Yield Spreads: The Role of Liquidity," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(4), pages 952-970, April.
  19. Grzegorz Wesoƚowski, 2018. "Do long-term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6174-6192, December.
  20. Ronald Lange, 2010. "Sources of regime switching in short-term interest rates for Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 439-454.
  21. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 158-174, July.
  22. Claus, Edda & Dungey, Mardi, 2016. "Can monetary policy surprises affect the term structure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 68-83.
  23. Bekiros, Stelios & Avdoulas, Christos & Hassapis, Christis, 2018. "Nonlinear equilibrium adjustment dynamics and predictability of the term structure of interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 140-155.
  24. Palandri, Alessandro, 2024. "Reconciling interest rates evidence with theory: Rejecting unit roots when the HD(1) is a competing alternative," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  25. Lange, Ronald H., 2010. "Regime-switching monetary policy in Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 782-796, September.
  26. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The predictive content of the term premium for GDP growth in Canada: Evidence from linear, Markov-switching and probit estimations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 80-91.
  27. Kopchak, Seth J., 2013. "The realized forward term premium in the repo market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278.
  28. Dušan Staniek, 2018. "The Expectations Hypothesis in the Theory and Practice of Current Interest Rate Instruments [Hypotéza očekávání v teorii a praxi současných úrokových instrumentů]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(2), pages 61-79.
  29. Dimitris A. Georgoutsos & Petros M. Migiakis, 2012. "Benchmark Bonds Interactions under Regime Shifts," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(3), pages 389-409, June.
  30. Kavita Sirichand & Stephen G. Hall, 2016. "Decision‐Based Forecast Evaluation of UK Interest Rate Predictability," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 93-112, March.
  31. Queijo von Heideken, Virginia, 2008. "Monetary Policy Regimes and the Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 220, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  32. Marcin Dec, 2021. "Parsimonious yield curve modeling in less liquid markets," GRAPE Working Papers 52, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
  33. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in India: Evidence from the Post-Liberalization Period (1996-2013). -La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse in India: una analisi empirica sul recente perio," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(2), pages 275-295.
  34. Shuo Cao, 2018. "Learning about Term Structure Predictability under Uncertainty," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_006, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  35. Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2017. "Asymmetries in Yield Curves: Some Empirical Evidence from Ghana," MPRA Paper 79155, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "The expectations hypothesis and decoupling of short- and long-term US interest rates: A pairwise approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 301-313.
  37. Goda, Thomas & Lysandrou, Photis & Stewart, Chris, 2013. "The contribution of US bond demand to the US bond yield conundrum of 2004–2007: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 113-136.
  38. Edda Claus & Mardi Dungey, 2015. "Can monetary policy surprise the market?," CAMA Working Papers 2015-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  39. Mizrach, Bruce & Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Information shares in the US Treasury market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1221-1233, July.
  40. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-71, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  41. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.
  42. Olga Susana M. Monteiro & Artur C. B. da Silva Lopes, 2010. "Short- and Long-Run Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: The Portuguese Case," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(3), pages 257-280.
  43. K. Cuthbertson & D. Nitzsche & S. Hyde, 2007. "Monetary Policy And Behavioural Finance," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 935-969, December.
  44. Suzan Hol, 2006. "Determinants of long-term interest rates in the Scandinavian countries," Discussion Papers 469, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  45. Ranaldo, Angelo & Rupprecht, Matthias, 2016. "The Forward Premium in Short-Term Rates," Working Papers on Finance 1619, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Sep 2019.
  46. Osmani Teixeira De Carvalho Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2009. "Characterising the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114.
  47. Andrade, Sandro C. & Barrett, W. Brian, 2011. "Can broker-dealer client surveys provide signals for debt investing?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1170-1178, May.
  48. N. K. Kishor & H. A. Marfatia, 2013. "Does federal funds futures rate contain information about the treasury bill rate?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(16), pages 1311-1324, August.
  49. Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco & Nersisyan, Liana, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Bond Risk Premia: Evidence from a Panel of 15 Countries," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023002, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
  50. Daniel L. Thornton, 2005. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Working Papers 2004-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  51. Dison, Will & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2017. "Do macro shocks matter for equities?," Bank of England working papers 692, Bank of England.
  52. Stephen Hall & Kavita Sirichand, 2010. "Economic Value of Stock and Interest Rate Predictability in the UK," Discussion Papers in Economics 10/13, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
  53. Daniel L. Thornton, 2009. "How did we get to inflation targeting and where do we go now? a perspective from the U.S. experience," Working Papers 2009-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  54. Samih Antoine Azar, 2018. "Forward Unbiasedness in the Short End of the Interest Rate Market," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(2), pages 70-78, February.
  55. Azar, Samih Antoine, 2010. "Testing the Expectations Hypothesis on Corporate Bond Yields," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 6(1-2), pages 1-11, April.
  56. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.
  57. Kakali Kanjilal, 2014. "Rational expectation hypothesis: empirical evidence from government debt market in India," International Journal of Indian Culture and Business Management, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 353-370.
  58. K. Azim Özdemir & Özgür Özel, 2011. "Regime changes in monetary policy and the Expectation Hypothesis of the term structure in Turkey," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 261-274, May.
  59. David Gabauer & Sowmya Subramaniam & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "On the transmission mechanism of Asia‐Pacific yield curve characteristics," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 473-488, January.
  60. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Evidence on the portfolio balance channel of quantitative easing," Working Papers 2012-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  61. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure: Further Empirical Evidence for India (1996-2013) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse: ulteriore evidenza empirica per l’India (1996-2013)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(3), pages 401-421.
  62. Lange, Ronald Henry, 2018. "The term structure of liquidity premia and the macroeconomy in Canada: A dynamic latent-factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 164-182.
  63. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite & Michael Lamla, 2019. "Treasuries variance decomposition and the impact of monetary policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 1506-1519, October.
  64. Li, Jing & Davis, George, 2017. "Rethinking cointegration and the expectation hypothesis of the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 177-189.
  65. Nicholas Addai Boamah, 2016. "Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rate: the case of Ghana," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-15, January.
  66. Guo, Bin & Huang, Fuzhe & Li, Kai, 2022. "Time to build and bond risk premia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
  67. Jesper Lindé, 2018. "DSGE models: still useful in policy analysis?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 269-286.
  68. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite, 2015. "Always and Everywhere Inflation? Treasuries Variance Decomposition and the Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  69. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure in Emerging Financial Markets: Some Evidence from Malaysia (1999-2015) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse nei paesi emergenti: alcune evi," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(4), pages 521-550.
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