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An Exact and Robust Conformal Inference Method for Counterfactual and Synthetic Controls

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Cited by:

  1. Giovanni Peri & Derek Rury & Justin C. Wiltshire, 2024. "The Economic Impact of Migrants from Hurricane Maria," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 59(6), pages 1795-1829.
  2. Masahiro Kato & Akari Ohda & Masaaki Imaizumi, 2023. "Asymptotically Unbiased Synthetic Control Methods by Distribution Matching," Papers 2307.11127, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
  3. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2023. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross‐Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2125-2154, November.
  4. Jianfei Cao & Connor Dowd, 2019. "Estimation and Inference for Synthetic Control Methods with Spillover Effects," Papers 1902.07343, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
  5. Eli Ben-Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2021. "The Augmented Synthetic Control Method," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1789-1803, October.
  6. Eli Ben‐Michael & Avi Feller & Jesse Rothstein, 2022. "Synthetic controls with staggered adoption," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(2), pages 351-381, April.
  7. Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Populist Constitutional Backsliding and Judicial Independence: Evidence from Turkiye," Papers 2410.02439, arXiv.org.
  8. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
  9. Billy Ferguson & Brad Ross, 2020. "Assessing the Sensitivity of Synthetic Control Treatment Effect Estimates to Misspecification Error," Papers 2012.15367, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
  10. Michael Funke & Kadri Männasoo & Helery Tasane, 2023. "Regional Economic Impacts of the Øresund Cross-Border Fixed Link: Cui Bono?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10557, CESifo.
  11. Nicolaj N. Mühlbach, 2020. "Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US Embassy," CREATES Research Papers 2020-04, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  12. Achille Nazaret & Claudia Shi & David M. Blei, 2023. "On the Misspecification of Linear Assumptions in Synthetic Control," Papers 2302.12777, arXiv.org.
  13. Lucke, Bernd, 2022. "Growth Effects of European Monetary Union: A Synthetic Control Approach," MPRA Paper 115373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Charotti, Carlos Javier & Palma, Nuno & dos Santos, Joao Pereira, 2022. "American treasure and the decline of Spain," CEPR Discussion Papers 17020, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Doerr, Luisa & Dorn, Florian & Gaebler, Stefanie & Potrafke, Niklas, 2020. "How new airport infrastructure promotes tourism: evidence from a synthetic control approach in German regions," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 54(10), pages 1402-1412.
  16. Jiafeng Chen, 2022. "Synthetic Control As Online Linear Regression," Papers 2202.08426, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2022.
  17. Bruno Ferman, 2023. "Inference in difference‐in‐differences: How much should we trust in independent clusters?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 358-369, April.
  18. Zongwu Cai & Ying Fang & Ming Lin & Zixuan Wu, 2023. "A Quasi Synthetic Control Method for Nonlinear Models With High-Dimensional Covariates," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202305, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2023.
  19. Priscila Espinosa & Daniel Aparicio-Pérez & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2023. "On the Impact of Next Generation EU Funds: A Regional Synthetic Control Method Approach," Working Papers 2023/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
  20. Giovanni Mellace & Alessandra Pasquini, 2022. "Mediation Analysis Synthetic Control," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1389, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  21. Simon Freyaldenhoven & Christian Hansen & Jorge Pérez Pérez & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2021. "Visualization, Identification, and Estimation in the Linear Panel Event-Study Design," NBER Working Papers 29170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Erick Lahura & Rosario Sabrera, 2023. "The effect of infrastructure investment on tourism demand: a synthetic control approach for the case of Kuelap, Peru," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 443-478, July.
  23. Ignacio Martinez & Jaume Vives-i-Bastida, 2022. "Bayesian and Frequentist Inference for Synthetic Controls," Papers 2206.01779, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  24. Barber, Andrew & West, Jeremy, 2022. "Conditional cash lotteries increase COVID-19 vaccination rates," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
  25. Davide Viviano & Jelena Bradic, 2019. "Synthetic learner: model-free inference on treatments over time," Papers 1904.01490, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
  26. Peter Backus & Thien Nguyen, 2021. "The Effect of the Sex Buyer Law on the Market for Sex, Sexual Health and Sexual Violence," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2106, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  27. Alberto Abadie & Jaume Vives-i-Bastida, 2022. "Synthetic Controls in Action," Papers 2203.06279, arXiv.org.
  28. Luis A. F. Alvarez & Bruno Ferman, 2024. "On “Imputation of Counterfactual Outcomes when the Errors are Predictable'': Discussions on Misspecification and Suggestions of Sensitivity Analyses," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2024_16, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
  29. Kuosmanen, Timo & Zhou, Xun & Eskelinen, Juha & Malo, Pekka, 2021. "Design Flaw of the Synthetic Control Method," MPRA Paper 106328, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  30. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wüthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2018. "Exact and robust conformal inference methods for predictive machine learning with dependent data," CeMMAP working papers CWP16/18, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  31. Ferman, Bruno, 2021. "Matching estimators with few treated and many control observations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 295-307.
  32. Cao, Jing & Ho, Mun S. & Ma, Rong & Teng, Fei, 2021. "When carbon emission trading meets a regulated industry: Evidence from the electricity sector of China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  33. Debdeep Chattopadhyay, 2023. "Did the Massachusetts Health Reform Program increase self-employment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(3), pages 1309-1344, September.
  34. Joseph Fry, 2023. "A Method of Moments Approach to Asymptotically Unbiased Synthetic Controls," Papers 2312.01209, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
  35. Guido W. Imbens & Davide Viviano, 2023. "Identification and Inference for Synthetic Controls with Confounding," Papers 2312.00955, arXiv.org.
  36. Nicolaj S{o}ndergaard Muhlbach & Mikkel Slot Nielsen, 2019. "Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US Embassy," Papers 1909.03968, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2021.
  37. Ruiz, Miguel Haro & Schult, Christoph & Wunder, Christoph, 2024. "The effects of the Iberian exception mechanism on wholesale electricity prices and consumer inflation: A synthetic-controls approach," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2024, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  38. Roberta Di Stefano & Giovanni Mellace, 2020. "The inclusive synthetic control method," Working Papers 21/20, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
  39. Alberto Abadie & Jinglong Zhao, 2021. "Synthetic Controls for Experimental Design," Papers 2108.02196, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
  40. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
  41. Lionel Fontagn'e & Francesca Micocci & Armando Rungi, 2024. "The heterogeneous impact of the EU-Canada agreement with causal machine learning," Papers 2407.07652, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  42. Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor, 2015. "Synthesizing Cash for Clunkers: Stabilizing the Car Market, Hurting the Environment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113207, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  43. Justin Wiltshire, 2021. "allsynth: Synthetic control bias-corrections utilities for Stata," 2021 Stata Conference 15, Stata Users Group.
  44. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
  45. Viviano, Davide & Bradic, Jelena, 2023. "Synthetic Learner: Model-free inference on treatments over time," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 691-713.
  46. Melissa Dell, 2024. "Deep Learning for Economists," Papers 2407.15339, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
  47. Douglas Kiarelly Godoy de Araujo, 2024. "Synthetic controls with machine learning: application on the effect of labour deregulation on worker productivity in Brazil," BIS Working Papers 1181, Bank for International Settlements.
  48. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & David Hirshberg, 2023. "Large-Sample Properties of the Synthetic Control Method under Selection on Unobservables," Papers 2311.13575, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
  49. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wuthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2018. "A $t$-test for synthetic controls," Papers 1812.10820, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
  50. Rong J. B. Zhu, 2023. "Synthetic Regressing Control Method," Papers 2306.02584, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  51. Hideki Shimada & Kenji Asano & Yu Nagai & Akito Ozawa, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of Offshore Wind Power Deployment on Fishery: A Synthetic Control Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(3), pages 791-829, November.
  52. Claudia Shi & Dhanya Sridhar & Vishal Misra & David M. Blei, 2021. "On the Assumptions of Synthetic Control Methods," Papers 2112.05671, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
  53. Li, Xingyu & Shen, Yan & Zhou, Qiankun, 2024. "Confidence intervals of treatment effects in panel data models with interactive fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
  54. Bruno Ferman, 2021. "On the Properties of the Synthetic Control Estimator with Many Periods and Many Controls," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 116(536), pages 1764-1772, October.
  55. Demirci, Murat, 2023. "Youth responses to political populism: Education abroad as a step toward emigration," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 653-673.
  56. Jason Poulos, 2019. "State-Building through Public Land Disposal? An Application of Matrix Completion for Counterfactual Prediction," Papers 1903.08028, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
  57. David M. Ritzwoller & Joseph P. Romano & Azeem M. Shaikh, 2024. "Randomization Inference: Theory and Applications," Papers 2406.09521, arXiv.org.
  58. Matias D. Cattaneo & Yingjie Feng & Filippo Palomba & Rocio Titiunik, 2022. "scpi: Uncertainty Quantification for Synthetic Control Methods," Papers 2202.05984, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
  59. Yinchu Zhu, 2019. "How well can we learn large factor models without assuming strong factors?," Papers 1910.10382, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2019.
  60. Lucke, Bernd, 2022. "Growth Effects of European Monetary Union: A Synthetic Control Approach," MPRA Paper 120662, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Mar 2024.
  61. Lea Bottmer & Guido Imbens & Jann Spiess & Merrill Warnick, 2021. "A Design-Based Perspective on Synthetic Control Methods," Papers 2101.09398, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2023.
  62. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto, 2021. "Synthetic controls with imperfect pretreatment fit," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1197-1221, November.
  63. Silvia Goncalves & Serena Ng, 2024. "Imputation of Counterfactual Outcomes when the Errors are Predictable," Papers 2403.08130, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
  64. Shosei Sakaguchi & Hayato Tagawa, 2024. "Identification and Inference for Synthetic Control Methods with Spillover Effects: Estimating the Economic Cost of the Sudan Split," Papers 2408.00291, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
  65. Cong Wang, 2024. "Counterfactual and Synthetic Control Method: Causal Inference with Instrumented Principal Component Analysis," Papers 2408.09271, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
  66. Luis Alvarez & Bruno Ferman, 2023. "Extensions for Inference in Difference-in-Differences with Few Treated Clusters," Papers 2302.03131, arXiv.org.
  67. Robert Messerle & Jonas Schreyögg, 2024. "Country-level effects of diagnosis-related groups: evidence from Germany’s comprehensive reform of hospital payments," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 25(6), pages 1013-1030, August.
  68. Isaiah Andrews & Drew Fudenberg & Lihua Lei & Annie Liang & Chaofeng Wu, 2022. "The Transfer Performance of Economic Models," Papers 2202.04796, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  69. Yan Zhang & Zudi Lu, 2024. "A Time Series Synthetic Control Causal Evaluation of the UK’s Mini-Budget Policy on Stock Market," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-25, October.
  70. Victor Chernozhukov & Kaspar Wüthrich & Yinchu Zhu, 2019. "Inference on average treatment effects in aggregate panel data settings," CeMMAP working papers CWP32/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  71. Jiafeng Chen, 2023. "Synthetic Control as Online Linear Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(2), pages 465-491, March.
  72. Sandro Heiniger, 2024. "Data-driven model selection within the matrix completion method for causal panel data models," Papers 2402.01069, arXiv.org.
  73. Vivek F. Farias & Andrew A. Li & Tianyi Peng, 2021. "Learning Treatment Effects in Panels with General Intervention Patterns," Papers 2106.02780, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
  74. Luis Costa & Vivek F. Farias & Patricio Foncea & Jingyuan (Donna) Gan & Ayush Garg & Ivo Rosa Montenegro & Kumarjit Pathak & Tianyi Peng & Dusan Popovic, 2023. "Generalized Synthetic Control for TestOps at ABI: Models, Algorithms, and Infrastructure," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 336-349, September.
  75. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
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