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Are Stock Returns Predictable? A Test Using Markov Chains

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Emekter, Riza & Jirasakuldech, Benjamas & Snaith, Sean M., 2009. "Nonlinear dynamics in foreign exchange excess returns: Tests of asymmetry," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 179-192, July.
  2. Paul Zimmerman & John Yun & Christopher Taylor, 2013. "Edgeworth Price Cycles in Gasoline: Evidence from the United States," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 42(3), pages 297-320, May.
  3. João Nicolau, 2014. "A New Model for Multivariate Markov Chains," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1124-1135, December.
  4. T. C. Mills & J. V. Jordanov, 2003. "The size effect and the random walk hypothesis: evidence from the London Stock Exchange using Markov Chains," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 807-815.
  5. Tan, Baris & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2002. "Markov chain test for time dependence and homogeneity: An analytical and empirical evaluation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 137(3), pages 524-543, March.
  6. João Nicolau & Flavio Riedlinger, 2015. "Estimation and inference in multivariate Markov chains," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1163-1173, November.
  7. B. Jirasakuldech & Riza Emekter & Unro Lee, 2008. "Business conditions and nonrandom walk behaviour of US stocks and bonds returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 659-672.
  8. Flavio Ivo Riedlinger & João Nicolau, 2020. "The Profitability in the FTSE 100 Index: A New Markov Chain Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(1), pages 61-81, March.
  9. Dimingo, Roselyn & Muteba Mwamba, John W. & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2021. "Prediction of Stock Market Direction: Application of Machine Learning Models," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 74(4), pages 499-536.
  10. Yang, Jian & Cabrera, Juan & Wang, Tao, 2010. "Nonlinearity, data-snooping, and stock index ETF return predictability," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(2), pages 498-507, January.
  11. Chiang, Raymond & Liu, Peter & Okunev, John, 1995. "Modelling mean reversion of asset prices towards their fundamental value," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1327-1340, November.
  12. Nelson Manuel Areal & Manuel Jose Da Rocha Armada, 2002. "The long-horizon returns behaviour of the Portuguese stock market1," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 93-122.
  13. Wang, Tao & Yang, Jian, 2010. "Nonlinearity and intraday efficiency tests on energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 496-503, March.
  14. Behrendt, Simon & Peter, Franziska J. & Zimmermann, David J., 2020. "An encyclopedia for stock markets? Wikipedia searches and stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  15. Riccardo De Blasis, 2020. "The price leadership share: a new measure of price discovery in financial markets," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 381-405, September.
  16. Dmitry Kulikov, 2012. "Testing for Rational Speculative Bubbles on the Estonian Stock Market," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 4(1).
  17. David Conaly Martínez Vázquez & Christian Bucio Pacheco & Alejandra Cabello Rosales, 2021. "Proyección Markoviana para 2020 y 2021 de las Calificaciones Corporativas en México," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, Enero - M.
  18. Chen, Son-Nan & Jeon, Kisuk, 1998. "Mean reversion behavior of the returns on currency assets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 185-200.
  19. Conlin Lizieri & Steven Satchell & Elaine Worzala & Roberto Dacco', 1998. "Real Interest Regimes and Real Estate Performance: A Comparison of UK and US Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 16(3), pages 339-356.
  20. López-Herrera, Francisco & Ortiz-Arango, Francisco & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2011. "Modelado de la volatilidad del Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores con cambios markovianos de régimen," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio (ed.), Crecimiento y Desarrollo Económico en México, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 153-164, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
  21. N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2004. "Causality and error correction in Markov chain: Inflation in India revisited," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 366, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
  22. Steve Beveridege & Cyril Oickle, 1997. "Long memory in the Canadian stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 667-672.
  23. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Riza Emekter & Thuy Bui, 2023. "Non-linear structures, chaos, and bubbles in U.S. regional housing markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 63-93, March.
  24. Ser‐Huang Poon, 1996. "Persistence and mean reversion in UK stock returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 2(2), pages 169-196, July.
  25. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Patrick Wai Yin Cheung & Erica Jiajia Ding, 2008. "Intra-metropolitan Office Price and Trading Volume Dynamics: Evidence from Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 47-74.
  26. Park, Jin Suk & Shi, Yukun, 2017. "Hedging and speculative pressures and the transition of the spot-futures relationship in energy and metal markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 176-191.
  27. Chiang, Raymond & Davidson, Ian & Okunev, John, 1997. "Some further theoretical and empirical implications regarding the relationship between earnings, dividends and stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 17-35, January.
  28. Juan Reboredo & José Matías & Raquel Garcia-Rubio, 2012. "Nonlinearity in Forecasting of High-Frequency Stock Returns," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 40(3), pages 245-264, October.
  29. Baur, Robert Frederick, 1992. "Overreaction in futures markets," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000010973, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  30. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Miranda, José G.V. & García-Rubio, Raquel, 2013. "How fast do stock prices adjust to market efficiency? Evidence from a detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(7), pages 1631-1637.
  31. Brett Olsen & Jeffrey Stokes, 2015. "Is Farm Real Estate The Next Bubble?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 355-376, April.
  32. David Conaly Martínez Vázquez & Christian Bucio Pacheco & Alejandra Cabello Rosales, 2021. "Proyección Markoviana para 2020 y 2021 de las Calificaciones Corporativas en México," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(1), pages 1-21, Enero - M.
  33. Khurshid M. Kiani, 2006. "Predictability in Stock Returns in an Emerging Market: Evidence from KSE 100 Stock Price Index," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 369-381.
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