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The Profitability in the FTSE 100 Index: A New Markov Chain Approach

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  • Flavio Ivo Riedlinger

    (Universidade de Lisboa and CEMAPRE ISEG)

  • João Nicolau

    (Universidade de Lisboa and CEMAPRE ISEG)

Abstract

In this paper, we propose a new method to predict stock market trends based on the multivariate Markov chain (MMC) methodology. Our approach consists of forecasting the one-period ahead FTSE 100 Index behavior, using the MTD-Probit model. The MTD-Probit model is a new approach for estimating MMC, based on multiple categorical data sequences that can be used to forecast financial markets. In this context, we propose a simple trading strategy and analyze its profitability using the White “Reality Check” and the Hansen SPA data snooping bias tests. Our empirical results suggest that the MTD-Probit model applied to the FTSE 100 Index cannot significantly out-perform the buy-and-hold benchmark after data-snooping is controlled.

Suggested Citation

  • Flavio Ivo Riedlinger & João Nicolau, 2020. "The Profitability in the FTSE 100 Index: A New Markov Chain Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(1), pages 61-81, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:27:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1007_s10690-019-09282-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-019-09282-4
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