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The size effect and the random walk hypothesis: evidence from the London Stock Exchange using Markov Chains

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  • T. C. Mills
  • J. V. Jordanov

Abstract

This paper examines the predictability of size portfolio returns using a new database constructed from the London Stock Exchange for the period 1985-1995. Predictability of returns, both adjusted and unadjusted for risk, are examined and, because evidence of nonlinearity and nonnormality is found in these series, conventional autocorrelation analysis is supplemented with analysis using Markov chain processes. It is found that predictabilities appear for the largest size portfolios rather than the smallest, so that, although a size effect remains in the market, it is rather different to that which is usually thought to hold.

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  • T. C. Mills & J. V. Jordanov, 2003. "The size effect and the random walk hypothesis: evidence from the London Stock Exchange using Markov Chains," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 807-815.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:11:p:807-815
    DOI: 10.1080/0960310032000116224
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Kroll, Yoram & Levy, Haim & Rapoport, Amnon, 1988. "Experimental tests of the mean-variance model for portfolio selection," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 388-410, December.
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    4. repec:bla:econom:v:63:y:1996:i:251:p:369-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Dryden, Myles M, 1969. "Share Price Movements: A Markovian Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 49-60, March.
    6. Terence Mills & J. Andrew Coutts, 1995. "Calendar effects in the London Stock Exchange FT-SE indices," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 79-93.
    7. Fielitz, Bruce D., 1975. "On the Stationarity of Transition Probability Matrices of Common Stocks," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 327-339, June.
    8. Fraser, Patricia, 1996. "UK Excess Share Returns: Firm Size and Volatility," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 71-84, February.
    9. Terence Mills & J. Andrew Coutts, 1996. "Misspecification testing and robust estimation of the market model: estimating betas for the FT-SE industry baskets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 319-331.
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    Cited by:

    1. B. Jirasakuldech & Riza Emekter & Unro Lee, 2008. "Business conditions and nonrandom walk behaviour of US stocks and bonds returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(8), pages 659-672.
    2. Flavio Ivo Riedlinger & João Nicolau, 2020. "The Profitability in the FTSE 100 Index: A New Markov Chain Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(1), pages 61-81, March.
    3. Georgi Nalbantov & Rob Bauer & Ida Sprinkhuizen-Kuyper, 2006. "Equity style timing using support vector regressions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1095-1111.
    4. Claudio Bonilla & Rafael Romero-Meza & Melvin Hinich, 2006. "Episodic nonlinearity in Latin American stock market indices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 195-199.
    5. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Patrick Wai Yin Cheung & Erica Jiajia Ding, 2008. "Intra-metropolitan Office Price and Trading Volume Dynamics: Evidence from Hong Kong," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 11(2), pages 47-74.
    6. Ikram ul Haq & Kashif Rashid, 2014. "Stock Market Efficiency and Size of the Firm: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," Oeconomics of Knowledge, Saphira Publishing House, vol. 6(1), pages 10-31, March.
    7. Alagidede, Paul, 2008. "Month-of-the-year and pre-holiday seasonality in African stock markets," Stirling Economics Discussion Papers 2008-23, University of Stirling, Division of Economics.
    8. Samer Al-Rjoub & Oscar Varela & M. Kabir Hassan, 2005. "The size effect reversal in the USA," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(17), pages 1189-1197.

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