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Dynamic Forecasts of Qualitative Variables: A Qual VAR Model of U.S. Recessions

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Cited by:

  1. Fornari, Fabio & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2010. "Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons," Working Paper Series 1255, European Central Bank.
  2. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2009. "Inflation, monetary policy and stock market conditions: quantitative evidence from a hybrid latent-variable VAR," Working Papers 2008-012, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2011. "Econometric Analysis and Prediction of Recurrent Events," CREATES Research Papers 2011-33, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  4. Herman O. Stekler & Tianyu Ye, 2017. "Evaluating a leading indicator: an application—the term spread," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 183-194, August.
  5. Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "Unconventional monetary policy and the spillovers to emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-156.
  6. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
  7. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Daniel Soques, 2022. "Contagious switching," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 415-432, March.
  8. Quentin LAJAUNIE, 2021. "Nonlinear Impulse Response Function for Dichotomous Models," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2852, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
  9. Ulrich Volz & Ansgar Belke & Irina Dubova, 2017. "Bond Yield Spillovers from Major Advanced Economies to Emerging Asia," Working Papers 203, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
  10. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Léopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2017. "Nonparametric estimation of dynamic discrete choice models for time series data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 97-120.
  11. Vrontos, Spyridon D. & Galakis, John & Vrontos, Ioannis D., 2021. "Modeling and predicting U.S. recessions using machine learning techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 647-671.
  12. Dalibor Stevanovic, 2013. "Probability and Severity of Recessions," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-43, CIRANO.
  13. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307.
  14. Dalibor Stevanovic & Rachidi Kotchoni, 2016. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions and Economic Activity," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-36, CIRANO.
  15. Andrei Sirchenko, 2019. "A regime-switching model for the federal funds rate target," UvA-Econometrics Working Papers 19-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Dept. of Econometrics.
  16. Tillmann, Peter, 2015. "Estimating the effects of macroprudential policy shocks: A Qual VAR approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-4.
  17. Kim, Kyungmin & Lee, Joo Yong, 2017. "Estimating the effects of FX-related macroprudential policies in Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 23-48.
  18. William W. Chow & Michael K. Fung, 2021. "The effects of macroprudential policy on Hong Kong’s housing market: a multivariate ordered probit-augmented vector autoregressive approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 633-660, February.
  19. Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu & Christophe Hurlin & Franz C. Palm, 2013. "Multivariate Dynamic Probit Models: An Application to Financial Crises Mutation," Advances in Econometrics, in: VAR Models in Macroeconomics – New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims, volume 32, pages 395-427, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  20. Pirschel, Inske, 2015. "Forecasting Euro Area Recessions in real-time with a mixed-frequency Bayesian VAR," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113031, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  21. David, Antonio C. & Guajardo, Jaime & Yepez, Juan F., 2022. "The rewards of fiscal consolidations: Sovereign spreads and confidence effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  22. Dueker, Michael, 2006. "Kalman filtering with truncated normal state variables for Bayesian estimation of macroeconomic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 58-62, October.
  23. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Hernandez-Leal, Juan D. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "When multiple objectives meet multiple instruments: Identifying simultaneous monetary shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-101.
  24. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
  25. Vladimir Dubrovskiy & Inna Golodniuk & Janusz Szyrmer, 2009. "Composite Leading Indicators for Ukraine: An Early Warning Model," CASE Network Reports 0085, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  26. Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Econometric Analysis Of Constructed Binary Time Series," CAMA Working Papers 2005-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  27. Tatiana Cesaroni & Stefano Iezzi, 2017. "The Predictive Content of Business Survey Indicators: Evidence from SIGE," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 75-104, May.
  28. Park, Byeong U. & Simar, Leopold & Zelenyuk, Valentin, 2013. "Non-Parametric Approach to Dynamic Time Series Discrete Choice Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2013052, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
  29. Michael J. Dueker & Charles R. Nelson, 2003. "Business cycle detrending of macroeconomic data via a latent business cycle index," Working Papers 2002-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  30. Michael Dueker & Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche, 2010. "Forecasting macro variables with a Qual VAR business cycle turning point index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(23), pages 2909-2920.
  31. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Sep), pages 419-440.
  32. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph T. McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2022. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 1246-1258, June.
  33. Chen, Hongyi & Chow, Kenneth & Tillmann, Peter, 2017. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 216-231.
  34. Galariotis, Emilios & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2018. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on expectations and sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-20.
  35. Anatolyev Stanislav, 2009. "Multi-Market Direction-of-Change Modeling Using Dependence Ratios," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 1-24, March.
  36. Juan Huang & Geoffrey Qiping Shen, 2017. "Residential housing bubbles in Hong Kong: identification and explanation based on GSADF test and dynamic probit model," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(2), pages 108-128, April.
  37. Meinusch, Annette & Tillmann, Peter, 2016. "The macroeconomic impact of unconventional monetary policy shocks," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 58-67.
  38. Travis J. Berge, 2015. "Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Model Averaging and Selection over the Business Cycle," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 455-471, September.
  39. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  40. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2010. "Business cycle monitoring with structural changes," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 777-793, October.
  41. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
  42. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  43. Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2017. "A Note on the Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks in the US on Emerging Market REITs: A Qual VAR Approach," Working Papers 201736, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  44. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  45. Lazzarini, S. G. & Madalozzo, R. C & Artes, R. & Siqueira, J. O., 2004. "Measuring trust: An experiment in Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_42, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  46. Marcelle, Chauvet & Simon, Potter, 2007. "Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15097, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 31 Apr 2009.
  47. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Rangan Gupta & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2016. "Dynamic Comovements Between Housing and Oil Markets in the US over 1859 to 2013: a Note," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 44(3), pages 377-386, September.
  48. Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307, April.
  49. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
  50. Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and the Spillovers to Emerging Markets," Working Papers 182014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  51. Adrian pagan & Don Harding, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series. Working paper #1," NCER Working Paper Series 1, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  52. Beck, Roland & Duca, Ioana A. & Stracca, Livio, 2019. "Medium term treatment and side effects of quantitative easing: international evidence," Working Paper Series 2229, European Central Bank.
  53. Manner, Hans & Türk, Dennis & Eichler, Michael, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-265.
  54. Huiwen Lai & Eric C. Y. Ng, 2020. "On business cycle forecasting," Frontiers of Business Research in China, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, December.
  55. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 963, The University of Melbourne.
  56. Yang Lu, 2020. "A simple parameter‐driven binary time series model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 187-199, March.
  57. Michael D. Bordo & Michael J. Dueker & David C. Wheelock, 2008. "Inflation, Monetary Policy and Stock Market Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14019, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  58. Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Kaya Tokmakcioglu & Emre Su, 2021. "Revisiting the asymmetric impacts of the exchange market pressure on the inflation, interest rate and foreign trade balance in Eastern Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2517-2538, November.
  59. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
  60. Chen, Guojin & Chen, Lingling & Liu, Yanzhen & Qu, Yuxuan, 2021. "Stock price bubbles, leverage and systemic risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 405-417.
  61. Ryou, Jai Won & Baak, Saang Joon & Kim, Won Joong, 2019. "Effects of Japanese quantitative easing policy on the economies of Japan and Korea," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 241-252.
  62. Thornton, Daniel L., 2016. "Guest editor's introduction: What monetary policy can and cannot do," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA), pages 1-4.
  63. Li, Haixi & Sheng, Xuguang Simon & Yang, Jingyun, 2021. "Monitoring recessions: A Bayesian sequential quickest detection method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 500-510.
  64. Grabowski, Wojciech & Welfe, Aleksander, 2020. "The Tobit cointegrated vector autoregressive model: An application to the currency market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 88-100.
  65. Bertrand Candelon & Elena-Ivona DUMITRESCU & Christophe HURLIN & Franz C. PALM, 2011. "Modelling Financial Crises Mutation," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 1238, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
  66. Breitenlechner, Max & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
  67. Krokida, Styliani-Iris & Makrychoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2020. "Monetary policy and herd behavior: International evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 386-417.
  68. Kaya Tokmakcioglu & Oguzhan Ozcelebi & Ali Sezin Ozdemir, 2019. "The role of asymmetry in the interplay between internal and external factors: Empirical evidence from the US, Brazil, Canada and Mexico," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(1), pages 55-75.
  69. John G. Fernald & Bharat Trehan, 2006. "Is a recession imminent?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov24.
  70. Sameer Khatiwada, 2017. "Quantitative Easing by the Fed and International Capital Flows," IHEID Working Papers 02-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
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