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Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models

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  • Nalewaik, Jeremy J.

Abstract

This paper incorporates vintage differences and forecasts into the Markov switching models described by Hamilton (1994). The vintage differences and forecasts induce parameter breaks close to the end of the sample, too close for standard maximum likelihood techniques to produce precise parameter estimates. A supplementary procedure estimates the statistical properties of the end-of-sample observations that behave differently from the rest, allowing inferred probabilities to reflect the breaks. Empirical results using real-time data show that these techniques improve the ability of a Markov switching model based on GDP and GDI to recognize the start of the 2001 recession.

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  • Nalewaik, Jeremy J., 2011. "Incorporating vintage differences and forecasts into Markov switching models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 281-307.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:27:y:2011:i:2:p:281-307
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.05.017
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    Cited by:

    1. Davig, Troy & Hall, Aaron Smalter, 2019. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 848-867.
    2. Valentina Raponi & Cecilia Frale, 2014. "Revisions in official data and forecasting," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(3), pages 451-472, August.
    3. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2012. "Estimating Probabilities of Recession in Real Time Using GDP and GDI," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 235-253, February.
    4. de Bruijn, L.P. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2015. "Stochastic levels and duration dependence in US unemployment," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI2015-20, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.

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