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Modeling the Change of Paradigm: Non-Bayesian Reactions to Unexpected News

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Larry Samuelson & Jakub Steiner, 2024. "Constrained data-fitters," ECON - Working Papers 460, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
  2. Jeong-Yoo Kim, 2023. "Proposing New Equilibrium Concepts in Dynamic Games with Noisy Signals," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 39, pages 413-443.
  3. Dipjyoti Majumdar & Artyom Shneyerov & Huan Xie, 2010. "How Optimism Leads to Price Discovery and Efficiency in a Dynamic Matching Market," Working Papers 10004, Concordia University, Department of Economics.
  4. De Filippis, Roberta & Guarino, Antonio & Jehiel, Philippe & Kitagawa, Toru, 2022. "Non-Bayesian updating in a social learning experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
  5. Minardi, Stefania & Savochkin, Andrei, 2019. "Subjective contingencies and limited Bayesian updating," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1-45.
  6. Nick Saponara, 2018. "Bayesian optimism," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 375-406, August.
  7. Cheng, Ing-Haw & Hsiaw, Alice, 2022. "Distrust in experts and the origins of disagreement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
  8. Levy, Gilat & Razin, Ronny, 2021. "A maximum likelihood approach to combining forecasts," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 104116, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Skreta, Vasiliki & Giacomini, Raffaella & Turén, Javier, 2015. "Models, Inattention and Expectation Updates," CEPR Discussion Papers 11004, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Françoise Forges & József Sákovics, 2022. "Tenable threats when Nash equilibrium is the norm," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 51(3), pages 589-605, November.
  11. Mark Whitmeyer, 2023. "Blackwell-Monotone Updating Rules," Papers 2302.13956, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
  12. Baillon, Aurélien & Bleichrodt, Han & Li, Chen & Wakker, Peter P., 2021. "Belief hedges: Measuring ambiguity for all events and all models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
  13. Bogaçhan Çelen & Sen Geng & Huihui Li, 2018. "Belief Error and Non-Bayesian Social Learning: An Experimental Evidence," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_022, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  14. Yves Breitmoser & Justin Valasek & Justin Mattias Valasek, 2023. "Why Do Committees Work?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10800, CESifo.
  15. Cuimin Ba, 2021. "Robust Misspecified Models and Paradigm Shifts," Papers 2106.12727, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
  16. Edi Karni & Marie-Louise Vierø, 2015. "Probabilistic sophistication and reverse Bayesianism," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 189-208, June.
  17. Breitmoser, Yves & Valasek, Justin, 2023. "Why do committees work?," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 18/2023, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
  18. Chini, Emilio Zanetti, 2023. "Can we estimate macroforecasters’ mis-behavior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
  19. Esponda, Ignacio & Vespa, Emanuel & Yuksel, Sevgi, 2024. "Mental Models and Learning: The Case of Base-Rate Neglect," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8cb387t8, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  20. Piermont, Evan, 2021. "Unforeseen evidence," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
  21. Christoph K. Becker & Tigran Melkonyan & Eugenio Proto & Andis Sofianos & Stefan T. Trautmann, 2020. "Reverse Bayesianism: Revising Beliefs in Light of Unforeseen Events," CESifo Working Paper Series 8662, CESifo.
  22. Kawakami, Hajime, 2023. "Doob’s consistency of a non-Bayesian updating process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
  23. Dominiak, Adam & Lee, Dongwoo, 2023. "Testing rational hypotheses in signaling games," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  24. He, Xue Dong & Xiao, Di, 2017. "Processing consistency in non-Bayesian inference," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 90-104.
  25. Robert C. Merton & Richard T. Thakor, 2015. "Customers and Investors: A Framework for Understanding Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 21258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Brian Hill, 2022. "Updating confidence in beliefs," Post-Print hal-03503986, HAL.
  27. José Luis Montiel Olea & Pietro Ortoleva & Mallesh Pai & Andrea Prat, 2021. "Competing Models," Working Papers 2021-89, Princeton University. Economics Department..
  28. Hill, Brian, 2022. "Updating confidence in beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
  29. Sun, Lan, 2019. "Hypothesis testing equilibrium in signalling games," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 29-34.
  30. Cheng, Xiaoyu, 2022. "Relative Maximum Likelihood updating of ambiguous beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  31. Gerrit Bauch, 2023. "Underreaction and dynamic inconsistency in communication games under noise," Papers 2311.12496, arXiv.org.
  32. Groneck, Max & Ludwig, Alexander & Zimper, Alexander, 2024. "Who saves more, the naive or the sophisticated agent?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
  33. Sun, Lan, 2016. "Hypothesis testing equilibrium in signaling games," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 557, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
  34. Sinkey, Michael, 2015. "How do experts update beliefs? Lessons from a non-market environment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 55-63.
  35. Riella, Gil, 2013. "Preference for Flexibility and Dynamic Consistency," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2467-2482.
  36. Larbi Alaoui & Antonio Penta, 2018. "Cost-benefit analysis in reasoning," Economics Working Papers 1621, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  37. Satoshi Kasamatsu & Daiki Kishishita, 2020. "Collective Reputation and Learning in Political Agency Problems," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1110, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  38. Adam Dominiak & Matthew Kovach & Gerelt Tserenjigmid, 2022. "Ordered Surprises and Conditional Probability Systems," Papers 2208.02533, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
  39. Chollete, Lorán & Jaffee, Dwight & Mamun, Khawaja A., 2022. "Policy suggestions from a simple framework with extreme outcomes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 374-398.
  40. Wenbo Zou & Xue Xu, 2023. "Ingroup bias in a social learning experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(1), pages 27-54, March.
  41. Mauersberger, Felix, 2021. "Monetary policy rules in a non-rational world: A macroeconomic experiment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
  42. Manzan, Sebastiano, 2021. "Are professional forecasters Bayesian?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
  43. Suehyun Kwon, 2019. "Behavioral Players in a Game," CESifo Working Paper Series 7504, CESifo.
  44. J. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel N. Hauser, 2021. "Learning With Heterogeneous Misspecified Models: Characterization and Robustness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 3025-3077, November.
  45. Fudenberg, Drew & Lanzani, Giacomo, 2023. "Which misspecifications persist?," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 18(3), July.
  46. Ellis, Andrew, 2018. "Foundations for optimal inattention," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 56-94.
  47. Xiaoyu Cheng, 2019. "Relative Maximum Likelihood Updating of Ambiguous Beliefs," Papers 1911.02678, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
  48. Lee, Yong-Ju & Lim, Wooyoung & Zhao, Chen, 2023. "Cheap talk with prior-biased inferences," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 254-280.
  49. Giampaolo Bonomi, 2023. "The Disagreement Dividend," Papers 2308.06607, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2024.
  50. Joshua S. Gans & Peter Landry, 2019. "Self-recognition in teams," International Journal of Game Theory, Springer;Game Theory Society, vol. 48(4), pages 1169-1201, December.
  51. Aislinn Bohren & Daniel Hauser, 2018. "Social Learning with Model Misspeciification: A Framework and a Robustness Result," PIER Working Paper Archive 18-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 01 Jul 2018.
  52. Raffaella Giacomini & Toru Kitagawa & Harald Uhlig, 2019. "Estimation Under Ambiguity," CeMMAP working papers CWP24/19, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  53. Heng Chen & Wing Suen, 2016. "Falling Dominoes: A Theory of Rare Events and Crisis Contagion," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 228-255, February.
  54. Joshua S. Gans & Peter Landry, 2016. "Procrastination in Teams," NBER Working Papers 21891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  55. Zimper, Alexander, 2023. "Unrealized arbitrage opportunities in naive equilibria with non-Bayesian belief processes," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 27-41.
  56. Sun, Sidong, 2023. "Rationalisable belief selection," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
  57. Miguel Angel Ropero, 2019. "Pricing Policies in a Market With Asymmetric Information and Non-Bayesian Firms," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(2), pages 541-563, November.
  58. Chen, Jaden Yang, 2022. "Biased learning under ambiguous information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
  59. Jawwad Noor, 2019. "Intuitive Beliefs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2216, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  60. Basu, Pathikrit, 2019. "Bayesian updating rules and AGM belief revision," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 455-475.
  61. Matthew Kovach, 2021. "Conservative Updating," Papers 2102.00152, arXiv.org.
  62. Rui Tang, 2020. "A Theory of Updating Ambiguous Information," Papers 2012.13650, arXiv.org.
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