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Intuitive Beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Jawwad Noor

    (e Department of Economics, Boston University)

Abstract

Beliefs are intuitive if they rely on associative memory, which can be described as a network of associations between events. A belief-theoretic characterization of the model is provided, its uniqueness properties are established, and the intersection with the Bayesian model is characterized. The formation of intuitive beliefs is modelled after machine learning, whereby the network is shaped by past experience via minimization of the difference from an objective probability distribution. The model is shown to accommodate correlation misperception, the conjunction fallacy, base-rate neglect/conservatism, etc.

Suggested Citation

  • Jawwad Noor, 2019. "Intuitive Beliefs," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2216, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2216
    as

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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d22/d2216.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beliefs; Intuition; Associative memory; Boltzmann machine; Energy-Based Neural Networks; Non-Bayesian updating;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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