IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zrh/wpaper/357.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Importance of Suspense and Surprise in Entertainment Demand: Evidence from Wimbledon

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Bizzozero

    (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich)

  • Raphael Flepp

    (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich)

  • Egon Franck

    (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich)

Abstract

This paper empirically examines how suspense and surprise affect the demand for entertainment. We use a tennis tournament, the Wimbledon Championships, as a natural laboratory. This setting allows us to both operationalize suspense and surprise by using the audience's beliefs regarding the outcome of the match and observe the demand for live entertainment using TV audience figures. Our match fixed effects estimates of 8,563 minute-by-minute observations from 80 men's singles matches between 2009 and 2014 show that both suspense and surprise are drivers of media entertainment demand. In general, surprise seems to be more important in this regard than suspense, and both factors matter more during a match's later moments. We discuss important implications for the design of entertainment content to maximize entertainment demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Bizzozero & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2016. "The Importance of Suspense and Surprise in Entertainment Demand: Evidence from Wimbledon," Working Papers 357, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    • Handle: RePEc:zrh:wpaper:357
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.business.uzh.ch/RePEc/zrh/wpaper/357_IBW_full.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Walker, Mark & Wooders, John & Amir, Rabah, 2011. "Equilibrium play in matches: Binary Markov games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 487-502, March.
    2. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. "Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
    3. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    4. Jeffery Borland, 2003. "Demand for Sport," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 19(4), pages 478-502, Winter.
    5. César Rodríguez & Levi Pérez & Víctor Puente & Plácido Rodríguez, 2015. "The Determinants of Television Audience for Professional Cycling," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(1), pages 26-58, January.
    6. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, April.
    7. Jeffrey Ely & Alexander Frankel & Emir Kamenica, 2015. "Suspense and Surprise," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(1), pages 215-260.
    8. Karen Croxson & J. James Reade, 2014. "Information and Efficiency: Goal Arrival in Soccer Betting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 62-91, March.
    9. Jarrod Olson & Daniel F. Stone, 2014. "Suspense-Optimal College Football Play-Offs," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 15(5), pages 519-540, October.
    10. Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2006. "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities," IZA Discussion Papers 2092, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2011. "Sentimental Preferences and the Organizational Regime of Betting Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(2), pages 502-518, October.
    12. David Forrest & Robert Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2005. "Outcome Uncertainty And The Couch Potato Audience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 641-661, September.
    13. Newton Paul K & Aslam Kamran, 2009. "Monte Carlo Tennis: A Stochastic Markov Chain Model," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-44, July.
    14. O'Malley A. James, 2008. "Probability Formulas and Statistical Analysis in Tennis," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-23, April.
    15. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    16. Klaassen, Franc & Magnus, Jan R., 2014. "Analyzing Wimbledon: The Power of Statistics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199355969.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Raphael Flepp & Oliver Merz & Egon Franck, 2024. "When the league table lies: Does outcome bias lead to informationally inefficient markets?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(1), pages 414-429, January.
    2. Egon Franck, 2024. "The proponents of the European Football Super League have switched from a proposal suggesting that permanent members self-govern their (almost) closed competition to a proposal maintaining the concept," Working Papers 403, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    3. Ge, Qi, 2018. "Sports sentiment and tipping behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 95-113.
    4. Meier, Philippe & Flepp, Raphael & Ruedisser, Maximilian & Franck, Egon, 2020. "Separating psychological momentum from strategic momentum: Evidence from men’s professional tennis," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Egon Franck, 2018. "European Club Football after “Five Treatments” with Financial Fair Play—Time for an Assessment," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-19, December.
    6. Dietl, Helmut & Özdemir, Anil & Rendall, Andrew, 2020. "The role of facial attractiveness in tennis TV-viewership," Sport Management Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 521-535.
    7. Georgios Nalbantis & Tim Pawlowski, 2019. "U.S. Demand for European Soccer Telecasts: A Between-Country Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(6), pages 797-818, August.
    8. Scarf, Phil & Parma, Rishikesh & McHale, Ian, 2019. "On outcome uncertainty and scoring rates in sport: The case of international rugby union," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(2), pages 721-730.
    9. Pawlowski, Tim & Rambaccussing, Dooruj & Ramirez, Philip & Reade, J. James & Rossi, Giambattista, 2024. "Exploring entertainment utility from football games," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 185-198.
    10. Travis Richardson & Georgios Nalbantis & Tim Pawlowski, 2023. "Emotional Cues and the Demand for Televised Sports: Evidence from the UEFA Champions League," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 993-1025, December.
    11. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Are sports betting markets semistrong efficient? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 387, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    12. Paolo Figini & Veronica Leoni & Laura Vici, 2023. "And suddenly, the rain! How surprises shape experienced utility," Working Papers wp1185, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    13. Helmut Dietl & Anil Özdemir & Andrew Rendall, 2018. "The Role of Physical Attractiveness in Tennis TV-Viewership," Working Papers 376, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    14. Russell S. Sobel & Reagan N. Sobel & Douglas M. Walker & Peter T. Calcagno, 2019. "How Effective Are Expert Tv Hosts At Saving Failing Businesses?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 9-24, January.
    15. Martín González Eiras & Nikolaj A. Harmon & Martín Rossi, 2017. "Fundamentals and Optimal Institutions: The case of US sports leagues," Working Papers 128, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Jan 2017.
    16. Babatunde Buraimo & David Forrest & Ian G. McHale & J.D. Tena, 2020. "Unscripted Drama: Soccer Audience Response To Suspense, Surprise, And Shock," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 881-896, April.
    17. Selçuk Özaydın & Thomas Könecke, 2024. "Match-Level Uncertainty in Professional Tennis Revisited—A Novel Approach Applied for the Time Between 2010 and 2019," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(4), pages 507-532, May.
    18. Philippe Meier & Maximilian Rüdisser & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2019. "Investigating the conditions for psychological momentum in the field: Evidence from men’s professional tennis," Working Papers 383, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Juergen Bitzer & Erkan Goeren, 2018. "Foreign Aid and Subnational Development: A Grid Cell Analysis," Working Papers V-407-18, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2018.
    2. Sarma, Sisira & Zaric, Gregory S. & Campbell, M. Karen & Gilliland, Jason, 2014. "The effect of physical activity on adult obesity: Evidence from the Canadian NPHS panel," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 1-21.
    3. Schreyer & Torgler Benno & Schmidt Sascha L., 2018. "Game Outcome Uncertainty and Television Audience Demand: New Evidence from German Football," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 140-161, May.
    4. de Souza, Joao Paulo A., 2015. "Evidence of growth complementarity between agriculture and industry in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-18.
    5. Scott D. Grimshaw & Jeffrey S. Larson, 2021. "Effect of Star Power on NBA All-Star Game TV Audience," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(2), pages 139-163, February.
    6. Joseph L. Dieleman & Michael Hanlon, 2014. "Measuring The Displacement And Replacement Of Government Health Expenditure," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 129-140, February.
    7. Raul Caruso & Francesco Addesa & Marco Di Domizio, 2019. "The Determinants of the TV Demand for Soccer: Empirical Evidence on Italian Serie A for the Period 2008-2015," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(1), pages 25-49, January.
    8. Shanti Gamper-Rabindran & Stephen Finger, 2013. "Does industry self-regulation reduce pollution? Responsible Care in the chemical industry," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 1-30, January.
    9. Anna Long & Matthew S. Wood & Daniel L. Bennett, 2023. "Entrepreneurial organizing activities and nascent venture performance," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 60(2), pages 433-461, February.
    10. Armey, Laura E. & McNab, Robert M., 2018. "Expenditure decentralization and natural resources," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 52-61.
    11. Umut Oguzoglu, 2016. "Disability and Multi-State Labour Force Choices with State Dependence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(296), pages 28-46, March.
    12. Jiatao Li & Haoyuan Ding & Yichuan Hu & Guoguang Wan, 2021. "Dealing with dynamic endogeneity in international business research," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 52(3), pages 339-362, April.
    13. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Green, Christopher J. & Jiang, Fei & Murinde, Victor, 2023. "Mobile money, ICT, financial inclusion and growth: How different is Africa?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    14. Frondel, Manuel & Kaestner, Kathrin & Sommer, Stephan & Vance, Colin, 2022. "Photovoltaics and the solar rebound: Evidence for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 954, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Ejike Udeogu (a) , Uzochukwu Amakom (b) and Shampa Roy-Mukherjee (a), 2021. "Empirical Analysis of an Augmented Schumpeterian Endogenous Growth Model," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 46(1), pages 53-84, March.
    16. Mayer, Alexander, 2022. "On the local power of some tests of strict exogeneity in linear fixed effects models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 49-74.
    17. Andrés J. Picazo-Tadeo & Francisco González-Gómez & Marta Suárez-Varela, 2020. "Electoral opportunism and water pricing with incomplete transfer of control rights," Local Government Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 1015-1038, November.
    18. Isaac Ketu & Jules-Eric Tchapchet Tchouto & Arsene Mouongue Kelly, 2022. "Does infrastructure development drive economic complexity in African countries?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(4), pages 2043-2053.
    19. Ahsan Kibria & Reza Oladi & Sherzod B. Akhundjanov, 2020. "Foreign direct investment and civil violence in Sub‐Saharan Africa," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 948-981, April.
    20. Braun, Martin & Verdier, Valentin, 2023. "Estimation of spillover effects with matched data or longitudinal network data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 689-714.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Suspense; Surprise; Entertainment; TV Audience; Betting Odds; Tennis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zrh:wpaper:357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniela Koller (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ibuzhch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.