IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2012-31.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Episodes of large exchange rate appreciations and reserves accumulations in selected Asian economies: Is fear of appreciations justified?

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Pontines
  • Reza Siregar

Abstract

The objective of our paper is to provide an empirical platform to the debate on the macroeconomic consequences of large currency appreciations. Observing the experiences of six major Asian economies (the ASEAN-5 (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore) and Korea) during the past two decades, the primary aim of this study is to ascertain the consequences of strong currencies, on the one hand, and reserves accumulation, on the other, for a set of vital macroeconomic indicators, namely, exports, growth and price. We then deal squarely, in retrospect, with the question of whether there is any justification to the so-called fear of appreciation phenomenon among the policy makers of these Asian economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Episodes of large exchange rate appreciations and reserves accumulations in selected Asian economies: Is fear of appreciations justified?," CAMA Working Papers 2012-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-31
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2021-06/31_pontines_siregar_2012.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, February.
    2. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    3. Terasvirta, T & Anderson, H M, 1992. "Characterizing Nonlinearities in Business Cycles Using Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 119-136, Suppl. De.
    4. Bussière, Matthieu & Saxena, Sweta C. & Tovar, Camilo E., 2012. "Chronicle of currency collapses: Re examining the effects on output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 680-708.
    5. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2008. "Fundamental pitfalls of exchange market pressure-based approaches to identification of currency crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-365.
    6. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    7. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    8. Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 24(3), pages 471-494.
    9. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open- Economy Macroeconomics," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 23-46, December.
    10. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-216, April.
    12. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783.
    14. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2010. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 231-271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Kwack, Sung Yeung & Ahn, Choong Y. & Lee, Young S. & Yang, Doo Y., 2007. "Consistent estimates of world trade elasticities and an application to the effects of Chinese Yuan (RMB) appreciation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 314-330, April.
    16. Gupta, Poonam & Mishra, Deepak & Sahay, Ratna, 2007. "Behavior of output during currency crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 428-450, July.
    17. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 2003. "A multi-country comparison of the linkages between inflation and exchange rate competitiveness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 167-184.
    18. Jane E. Ihrig & Mario Marazzi & Alexander D. Rothenberg, 2006. "Exchange-rate pass-through in the G-7 countries," International Finance Discussion Papers 851, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate, Mercantilism And The Learning By Doing Externality," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 324-335, August.
    20. Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 451-469, December.
    21. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2007. "The Yen, the US dollar, and the trade weighted basket of currencies: Does the choice of anchor currencies matter in identifying incidences of speculative attacks?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 214-235, March.
    22. Hong, Kiseok & Tornell, Aaron, 2005. "Recovery from a currency crisis: some stylized facts," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 71-96, February.
    23. Pozo, Susan & Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, 2003. "Statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 591-609, August.
    24. Jan P. A. M. Lestano, 2007. "Dating currency crises with ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds: East Asia 1970-2002 [Dating currency crises]," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 371-388.
    25. Barry Eichengreen, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 28013.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcus Kappler & Helmut Reisen & Moritz Schularick & Edouard Turkisch, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 471-494, July.
    2. Bussière, Matthieu & Saxena, Sweta C. & Tovar, Camilo E., 2012. "Chronicle of currency collapses: Re examining the effects on output," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 680-708.
    3. Arabinda Basistha & Sheida Teimouri, 2015. "Currency Crises and Output Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 139-153, February.
    4. Erler, Alexander & Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard, 2015. "To intervene, or not to intervene: Monetary policy and the costs of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 432-456.
    5. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Erler, Alexander & Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard, 2014. "Defending against speculative attacks – It is risky, but it can pay off," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 309-330.
    7. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel Voia, 2015. "Identifying extreme values of exchange market pressure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1055-1078, May.
    8. Pontines, Victor, 2015. "How useful is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index for surveillance in East Asia?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 269-287.
    9. Barthélémy, Sylvain & Binet, Marie-Estelle & Pentecôte, Jean-Sébastien, 2020. "Worldwide economic recoveries from financial crises through the decades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Teimouri, Sheida & Zietz, Joachim, 2017. "Economic costs of alternative monetary policy responses to speculative currency attacks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 419-434.
    11. Ryota Nakatani, 2019. "Output Costs of Currency Crisis and Banking Crisis: Shocks, Policies and Cycles," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(1), pages 83-102, March.
    12. Qin, Xiao & Liu, Liya, 2014. "Extremes, return level and identification of currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 439-450.
    13. Mahdi Yazdani & Mohammad Nikzad, 2021. "Output Losses from Currency Crises and the Role of Central Bank," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 79-97.
    14. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    15. Sheida Teimouri & Taggert J Brooks, 2015. "Output Recovery After Currency Crises," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 57(1), pages 75-102, March.
    16. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    17. Cumperayot, Phornchanok & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2013. "Early warning systems for currency crises: A multivariate extreme value approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 151-171.
    18. Matthieu Bussière & Claude Lopez & Cédric Tille, 2015. "Do real exchange rate appreciations matter for growth?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 5-45.
    19. José Antonio Rodríguez-López, 2011. "Prices and Exchange Rates: A Theory of Disconnect," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(3), pages 1135-1177.
    20. Goossens, Roman & Mori, Rogério & Teles, Vladimir Kuhl, 2014. "Do capital controls boost EME´s resilience to financial crises?," Textos para discussão 370, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-31. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Cama Admin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.