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Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence
[Besteuerung und Popularität von Politikern: Gibt es unterscheidbare Wirkungen aufgrund der Steuerlast und aufgrund von Veränderungen der Steuerstruktur?]

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  • Geys, Benny
  • Vermeir, Jan

Abstract

Previous research has established that taxation may entail significant electoral costs to politicians. This literature, however, focuses exclusively on the effect of the tax burden. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that both the level of the tax burden and the change in the tax structure affect the US president’s approval ratings (over the period 1959-2006). Our results support this proposition. Specifically, we find a negative impact from the levels of the tax burden and the deficit as well as from changes in the tax structure on presidential approval ratings.

Suggested Citation

  • Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2007. "Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence [Besteuerung und Popularität von Politikern: Gibt es unterscheidbare Wirkungen aufgrund der Steuerl," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2007-09, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:wzbmpg:spii200709
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Benny Geys & Federico Revelli, 2011. "Economic and Political Foundations of Local Tax Structures: An Empirical Investigation of the Tax Mix of Flemish Municipalities," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 29(3), pages 410-427, June.
    2. Kristien Werck & Bruno Heyndels & Benny Geys, 2008. "The impact of ‘central places’ on spatial spending patterns: evidence from Flemish local government cultural expenditures," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 32(1), pages 35-58, March.
    3. Berlemann, Michael & Enkelmann, Sören, 2014. "The economic determinants of U.S. presidential approval: A survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-54.
    4. Lukáš Moravec & Gabriela Kukalová & Jakub Ječmínek & Luboš Žáček, 2018. "Czech Household Tax Burden Estimation," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 66(6), pages 1557-1564.
    5. Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2008. "The political cost of taxation: new evidence from German popularity ratings [Besteuerung und Popularität von Politikern: Neue Ergebnisse für die Deutsche Bundesregierung 1978-2003]," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2008-06, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    6. Benny Geys, 2013. "Election Cycles in MPs' Outside Interests? The UK House of Commons, 2005–2010," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 61(2), pages 462-472, June.
    7. Christian Elmelund-Præstekær & David Nicolas Hopmann, 2013. "Understanding Differences in Voter Perceptions of Campaign Agendas: The Case of Local Elections in Denmark," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 31(4), pages 571-584, August.
    8. Elizabeth Lyon & J. R. Catlin, 2020. "Consumer Misconceptions about Tax Laws: Results from a Survey in the United States," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 43(4), pages 807-828, December.
    9. Sunjoo Kwak & Jongmin Shon, 2022. "Tax Salience and Cyclical Asymmetry in Tax Rate Adjustments: Testing the Indirect Tax Hypothesis," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 240(1), pages 3-29, March.
    10. Ji Won Jung & Jinhwan Oh, 2020. "Determinants of presidential approval ratings: Cross-country analyses with reference to Latin America," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 23(3), pages 251-267, September.
    11. Geys, Benny, 2009. "Wars, presidents and popularity: The political cost(s) of war re-examined," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship & Project "The Future of Fiscal Federalism" SP II 2009-11, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    12. Witte, Kristof De & Geys, Benny, 2011. "Evaluating efficient public good provision: Theory and evidence from a generalised conditional efficiency model for public libraries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 319-327, May.
    13. Hyungon Kim & Chang Kwon, 2015. "The Effects of Fiscal Consolidation and Welfare Composition of Spending on Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from US Gubernatorial Elections between 1978 and 2006," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 228-253, April.
    14. Geys, Benny & Moesen, Wim, 2008. "Exploring sources of local government technical inefficiency: evidence from Flemish municipalities [Ursachenforschung zur technischen Ineffizienz kommunaler Verwaltungen: Evidenz von flämischen Gem," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2008-18, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    15. Sedef Sen & Murat Donduran, 2017. "Does stock market performance affect the government satisfaction rating in the UK?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 999-1009, November.
    16. Geys, Benny, 2010. "War casualties and US presidential popularity: A comparison of the Korean, Vietnam and Iraq war," Discussion Papers, Research Professorship & Project "The Future of Fiscal Federalism" SP II 2010-05, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    17. Douglas Kriner & Breanna Lechase & Rosella Cappella Zielinski, 2018. "Self-interest, partisanship, and the conditional influence of taxation on support for war in the USA," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 35(1), pages 43-64, January.

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