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The Effect of Economic and Fiscal Performance on Incumbency Voting: The Canadian Case

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  • Happy, J. R.

Abstract

This study examines the effect of incorporating taxation into the incumbency voting model using aggregate economic data for Canadian federal elections from 1953 to 1988. Although Canadian election campaigns tend to be dominated by economic performance issues, taxation, as measured by open-ended questions in the national election studies, has not been a salient campaign issue among voters. None the less, voters as consumers in the market economy have an interest in government policies that affect after-tax income. Furthermore, as economic citizens, voters have an interest in taxation as a measure of government efficiency – the costs of providing public services – independent of benefits generated by government. Paralleling American and British results, the economic and fiscal performance variables behave as expected in the incumbency model. Income change has a positive effect, and the rate of inflation and unemployment a negative effect, on incumbency voting. The relationship between taxation and incumbency voting is negative, both through its effect on after-tax income and also directly, independent of income. The results are consistent with an interpretation which suggests that voters, responding to the public agenda for economic performance and to a private agenda for taxation, behave both as politic consumers and as economic citizens.

Suggested Citation

  • Happy, J. R., 1992. "The Effect of Economic and Fiscal Performance on Incumbency Voting: The Canadian Case," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 117-130, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:22:y:1992:i:01:p:117-130_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Nadeau & André Blais & Neil Nevitte & Elisabeth Gidengil, 2000. "It's Unemployment, Stupid! Why Perceptions About the Job Situation Hurt the Liberals in the 1997 Election," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77-94, March.
    2. Geys, Benny & Vermeir, Jan, 2008. "The political cost of taxation: new evidence from German popularity ratings [Besteuerung und Popularität von Politikern: Neue Ergebnisse für die Deutsche Bundesregierung 1978-2003]," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2008-06, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    3. Ionut Cotoc & Alok Johri & Cesar Sosa-Padilla, 2018. "Debt, Defaults and Dogma: politics and the dynamics of sovereign debt markets," 2018 Meeting Papers 1125, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Benny Geys & Jan Vermeir, 2008. "Taxation and presidential approval: separate effects from tax burden and tax structure turbulence?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 301-317, June.
    5. Hyun-Chool Lee & Alexandre Repkine, 2022. "A Spatial Analysis of the Voting Patterns in the South Korean General Elections of 2016," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-24, August.

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