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The dynamics of hourly electricity prices

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  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Trück, Stefan

Abstract

The dynamics of hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets is an important element of competitive power markets that were only established in the last decade. In electricity markets, the market microstructure does not allow for continuous trading, since operators require advance notice in order to verify that the schedule is feasible and lies within transmission constraints. Instead agents have to submit their bids and offers for delivery of electricity for all hours of the next day before a specified market closing time. We suggest the use of dynamic semiparametric factor models (DSFM) for the behavior of hourly electricity prices. We find that a model with three factors is able to explain already a high proportion of the variation in hourly electricity prices. Our analysis also provides insights into the characteristics of the market, in particular with respect to the driving factors of hourly prices and their dynamic behavior through time.

Suggested Citation

  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Trück, Stefan, 2010. "The dynamics of hourly electricity prices," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-013, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2010-013
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    Cited by:

    1. Cludius, Johanna & Hermann, Hauke & Matthes, Felix Chr. & Graichen, Verena, 2014. "The merit order effect of wind and photovoltaic electricity generation in Germany 2008–2016: Estimation and distributional implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 302-313.
    2. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Majer, Piotr, 2012. "Yield curve modeling and forecasting using semiparametric factor dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-048, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    3. Liebl, Dominik, 2010. "Modeling hourly Electricity Spot Market Prices as non stationary functional times series," MPRA Paper 25017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    5. Liebl, Dominik, 2010. "Estimation of the Semiparametric Factor Model: Application to Modelling Time Series of Electricity Spot Prices," MPRA Paper 26800, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Katarzyna Maciejowska & Rafał Weron, 2015. "Forecasting of daily electricity prices with factor models: utilizing intra-day and inter-zone relationships," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 805-819, September.
    7. Michail I. Seitaridis & Nikolaos S. Thomaidis & Pandelis N. Biskas, 2021. "Fundamental Responsiveness in European Electricity Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    8. Christian Pape & Arne Vogler & Oliver Woll & Christoph Weber, 2017. "Forecasting the distributions of hourly electricity spot prices," EWL Working Papers 1705, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised May 2017.
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-048 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Power Markets; Dynamic Semiparametric Factor Models; Day-ahead Electricity Prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C19 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Other
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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