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Learning and Complementarities: Implications for Speculative Attacks

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  • Goldstein, Itay
  • Yuan, Kathy
  • Ozdenoren, Emre

Abstract

We study a model where the aggregate trading of currency speculators reveals new information to the central bank and affects its policy decision. We show that the learning process gives rise to coordination motives among speculators leading to large currency attacks and introducing non-fundamental volatility into exchange rates and policy decisions. We show that the central bank can improve the ex-ante effectiveness of its policy by committing to put a lower weight ex-post on the information from the market, and that transparency may either increase or decrease the effectiveness of learning from the market, depending on how it is implemented.

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  • Goldstein, Itay & Yuan, Kathy & Ozdenoren, Emre, 2010. "Learning and Complementarities: Implications for Speculative Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7651, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7651
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    Cited by:

    1. Kováč, Eugen & Steiner, Jakub, 2013. "Reversibility in dynamic coordination problems," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 298-320.
    2. Péter Kondor, 2009. "The more we know, the less we agree: Higher-order expectations and public announcements," 2009 Meeting Papers 1018, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2023. "Wall Street and Silicon Valley: A Delicate Interaction," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1041-1083.
    4. Pablo Kurlat, 2015. "Optimal Stopping in a Model of Speculative Attacks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 212-226, April.
    5. Manzano, Carolina & Vives, Xavier, 2011. "Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 346-369.
    6. Kondor, Péter, 2011. "The more we know on the fundamental, the less we agree on the price," CEPR Discussion Papers 8455, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
    8. Guido Lorenzoni & George-Marios Angeletos, 2010. "Price Making Intermediation," 2010 Meeting Papers 963, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coordination; Currency attacks; Feedback effects; Financial markets; Global games; Heterogenous information; Strategic complementarities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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