IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb649/sfb649dp2008-038.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic semiparametric factor models in risk neutral density estimation

Author

Listed:
  • Giacomini, Enzo
  • Härdle, Wolfgang Karl
  • Krätschmer, Volker

Abstract

Dimension reduction techniques for functional data analysis model and approximate smooth random functions by lower dimensional objects. In many applications the focus of interest lies not only in dimension reduction but also in the dynamic behaviour of the lower dimensional objects. The most prominent dimension reduction technique - functional principal components analysis - however, does not model time dependences embedded in functional data. In this paper we use dynamic semiparametric factor models (DSFM) to reduce dimensionality and analyse the dynamic structure of unknown random functions by means of inference based on their lower dimensional representation. We apply DSFM to estimate the dynamic structure of risk neutral densities implied by prices of option on the DAX stock index.

Suggested Citation

  • Giacomini, Enzo & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Krätschmer, Volker, 2008. "Dynamic semiparametric factor models in risk neutral density estimation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-038, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2008-038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/25280/1/57174401X.PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rama Cont & Jose da Fonseca, 2002. "Dynamics of implied volatility surfaces," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 45-60.
    2. Matthias R. Fengler & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Enno Mammen, 0. "A semiparametric factor model for implied volatility surface dynamics," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 189-218.
    3. Ralf Brüggemann & Wolfgang Härdle & Julius Mungo & Carsten Trenkler, 2008. "VAR Modeling for Dynamic Loadings Driving Volatility Strings," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 361-381, Summer.
    4. Fengler, Matthias R. & Härdle, Wolfgang & Mammen, Enno, 2003. "Implied volatility string dynamics," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,54, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    5. Hernández-Hernández, Daniel & Schied, Alexander, 2007. "A control approach to robust utility maximization with logarithmic utility and time-consistent penalties," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 117(8), pages 980-1000, August.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:2:p:499-547 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Borak, Szymon & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Mammen, Enno & Park, Byeong U., 2007. "Time series modelling with semiparametric factor dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-023, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. Park, Byeong U. & Mammen, Enno & Härdle, Wolfgang & Borak, Szymon, 2009. "Time Series Modelling With Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 284-298.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-032 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    3. Wolfgang Karl Hardle & Elena Silyakova, 2020. "Implied Basket Correlation Dynamics," Papers 2009.09770, arXiv.org.
    4. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-023 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Xiaofeng Cao & Ostap Okhrin & Martin Odening & Matthias Ritter, 2015. "Modelling spatio-temporal variability of temperature," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 745-766, September.
    6. Grith, Maria & Karl Härdle, Wolfgang & Krätschmer, Volker, 2013. "Reference dependent preferences and the EPK puzzle," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-023, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. Fengler, Matthias & Hin, Lin-Yee, 2011. "Semi-nonparametric estimation of the call price surface under strike and time-to-expiry no-arbitrage constraints," Economics Working Paper Series 1136, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised May 2013.
    8. Horatio Cuesdeanu & Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 2018. "The pricing kernel puzzle: survey and outlook," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 289-329, August.
    9. Stefan Trück & Wolfgang Härdle & Rafal Weron, 2012. "The relationship between spot and futures CO2 emission allowance prices in the EU-ETS," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    10. Ostap Okhrin & Stefan Trück, 2015. "Editorial to the special issue on Applicable semiparametrics of computational statistics," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 641-646, September.
    11. Audrino, Francesco & Meier, Pirmin, 2012. "Empirical pricing kernel estimation using a functional gradient descent algorithm based on splines," Economics Working Paper Series 1210, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    12. Choros-Tomczyk, Barbara & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Ostap, 2013. "CDO surfaces dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-032, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-020 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-038 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Michel van der Wel & Sait R. Ozturk & Dick van Dijk, 2015. "Dynamic Factor Models for the Volatility Surface," CREATES Research Papers 2015-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2010-039 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Song, Song & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Ritov, Ya'acov, 2010. "High dimensional nonstationary time series modelling with generalized dynamic semiparametric factor model," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-039, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    5. Chen, Likai & Wang, Weining & Wu, Wei Biao, 2017. "Dynamic semiparametric factor model with a common break," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2017-026, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    6. Borak, Szymon & Weron, Rafał, 2008. "A semiparametric factor model for electricity forward curve dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2008-050, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. Sergey Nasekin & Wolfgang Karl Hardle, 2020. "Model-driven statistical arbitrage on LETF option markets," Papers 2009.09713, arXiv.org.
    8. Mammen, Enno & Park, Byeong U. & Schienle, Melanie, 2012. "Additive models: Extensions and related models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-045, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    9. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-026 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Giacomini, Enzo & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2007. "Statistics of risk aversion," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-025, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    11. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-045 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Boneva, Lena & Linton, Oliver & Vogt, Michael, 2015. "A semiparametric model for heterogeneous panel data with fixed effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 327-345.
    13. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-025 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2007-023 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Borak, Szymon & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Mammen, Enno & Park, Byeong U., 2007. "Time series modelling with semiparametric factor dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2007-023, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    16. Bernales, Alejandro & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "Can we forecast the implied volatility surface dynamics of equity options? Predictability and economic value tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 326-342.
    17. Choros-Tomczyk, Barbara & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Ostap, 2013. "CDO surfaces dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-032, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    18. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2012-066 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Wallmeier, Martin, 2012. "Smile in Motion: An Intraday Analysis of Asymmetric Implied Volatility," FSES Working Papers 427, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    20. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-050 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-032 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Choroś-Tomczyk, Barbara & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Okhrin, Ostap, 2016. "A semiparametric factor model for CDO surfaces dynamics," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 151-163.
    23. Park, Byeong U. & Mammen, Enno & Härdle, Wolfgang & Borak, Szymon, 2009. "Time Series Modelling With Semiparametric Factor Dynamics," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 104(485), pages 284-298.
    24. Xiaofeng Cao & Ostap Okhrin & Martin Odening & Matthias Ritter, 2015. "Modelling spatio-temporal variability of temperature," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 745-766, September.
    25. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Silyakova, Elena, 2012. "Implied basket correlation dynamics," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2012-066, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    26. Stefan Trück & Wolfgang Härdle & Rafal Weron, 2012. "The relationship between spot and futures CO2 emission allowance prices in the EU-ETS," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    27. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-020 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Kearney, Fearghal & Shang, Han Lin & Sheenan, Lisa, 2019. "Implied volatility surface predictability: The case of commodity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    29. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2017-027 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Mestekemper, Thomas & Windmann, Michael & Kauermann, Göran, 2010. "Functional hourly forecasting of water temperature," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 684-699, October.
    31. Bastien Baldacci, 2020. "High-frequency dynamics of the implied volatility surface," Papers 2012.10875, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic factor models; dimension reduction; risk neutral density;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb649:sfb649dp2008-038. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.