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Compensator-based simulation of correlated defaults

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  • Giesecke, Kay

Abstract

The market for derivatives with payoffs contingent on the credit quality of a number of reference entities has grown considerably over recent years. The risk analysis and valuation of such multi-name structures often relies on simulating the performance of the underlying credits. In this paper we discuss the simulation of correlated unpredictable default arrival times. Our algorithm is based on the compensator of default. We construct this compensator explicitly in a multi-firm structural model with correlated defaults and imperfect asset and default threshold observation. It is shown how the model parameters can be estimated from readily available equity and single-name credit derivatives market data.

Suggested Citation

  • Giesecke, Kay, 2002. "Compensator-based simulation of correlated defaults," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,47, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200247
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Giesecke, Kay, 2002. "An exponential model for dependent defaults," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2002,52, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    2. Duffie, Darrell & Lando, David, 2001. "Term Structures of Credit Spreads with Incomplete Accounting Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 633-664, May.
    3. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    simulation; correlated defaults; default compensator;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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