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Recent Advances in Credit Risk Modeling

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Giancarlo Gasha
  • Mr. Andre O Santos
  • Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
  • Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros
  • Mr. Marcos R Souto
  • Christian Capuano

Abstract

As is well known, most models of credit risk have failed to measure the credit risks in the context of the global financial crisis. In this context, financial industry representatives, regulators and academics worldwide have given new impetus to efforts to improve credit risk modeling for countries, corporations, financial institutions, and financial instruments. The paper summarizes some of the recent advances in this regard. It considers modifications of structural models, including of the classical Merton model, and efforts to reconcile the structural and the reduced-form models. It also discusses the reassessment of the default correlations using copulas, the pricing of credit index options, and the determination of the prices of distressed debt and estimation of recovery values.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Giancarlo Gasha & Mr. Andre O Santos & Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Mr. Carlos I. Medeiros & Mr. Marcos R Souto & Christian Capuano, 2009. "Recent Advances in Credit Risk Modeling," IMF Working Papers 2009/162, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2009/162
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    Cited by:

    1. Eleftherios Vlachostergios, 2020. "An Emerging Credit Risk Framework," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(5), pages 1-68, May.
    2. Şaban Çelik, 2013. "Micro Credit Risk Metrics: A Comprehensive Review," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 233-272, October.
    3. Emmanuel Mamatzakis & Panos Remoundos, 2012. "What are the Driving Factors Behind the Rise of Spreads and CDS of Eurozone Sovereign Bonds? A Panel VAR Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Risk Management Institute, Singapore (ed.), Global Credit Review, chapter 5, pages 79-94, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Sokolov, Yuri, 2010. "Business cycle effects on portfolio credit risk: A simple FX Adjustment for a factor model," MPRA Paper 27222, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Božović, Miloš & Ivanović, Jelena, 2017. "Adverse risk interaction: An integrated approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 67-74.
    6. Bachmair,Fritz Florian, 2016. "Contingent liabilities risk management : a credit risk analysis framework for sovereign guarantees and on-lending?country experiences from Colombia, Indonesia, Sweden, and Turkey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7538, The World Bank.
    7. Lang, William W. & Jagtiani, Julapa, 2010. "The Mortgage Financial Crises: The Role of Credit Risk Management and Corporate Governance," Working Papers 10-12, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    8. William Lang & Julapa Jagtiani, 2010. "The Mortgage and Financial Crises: The Role of Credit Risk Management and Corporate Governance," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(3), pages 295-316, September.
    9. Miloš Božović & Branko Urošević & Boško Živković, 2009. "On The Spillover Of Exchangerate Risk Into Default Risk," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 54(183), pages 32-55, October -.

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    Keywords

    WP; index option; market price;
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