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News Shocks and the Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns

Author

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  • Hengjie Ai
  • Mariano Max Croce
  • Anthony M Diercks
  • Kai Li

Abstract

We propose a production-based general equilibrium model to study the link between timing of cash flows and expected returns, both in the cross-section of stocks and along the aggregate equity term structure. Our model incorporates long-run growth news with time-varying volatility and slow learning about the exposure that firms have with respect to these shocks. Our framework provides a unified explanation of the stylized features of the slope of the term structure of equity returns, its variations over the business cycle, and the negative relationship between cash-flow duration and expected returns in the cross-section of book-to-market-sorted portfolios. Received May 27, 2017; editorial decision October 12, 2017 by Editor Itay Goldstein.

Suggested Citation

  • Hengjie Ai & Mariano Max Croce & Anthony M Diercks & Kai Li, 2018. "News Shocks and the Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2423-2467.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:31:y:2018:i:7:p:2423-2467.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhy015
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrei S. Gonçalves, 2021. "Reinvestment Risk and the Equity Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2153-2197, October.
    2. Liu, Hao & Chen, Yue & Wan, Wei & Zhang, Qun, 2021. "A novel explanation for idiosyncratic volatility anomaly: An asset decomposition perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    3. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
    4. Li, Kai & Tsou, Chi-Yang & Xu, Chenjie, 2023. "Learning and the capital age premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 76-90.
    5. Eric T. Swanson, 2020. "Implications of Labor Market Frictions for Risk Aversion and Risk Premia," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 194-240, April.
    6. Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 626, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
      • Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Working Papers 2020:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    7. Niels Joachim Gormsen, 2021. "Time Variation of the Equity Term Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 1959-1999, August.
    8. Jun Li & Huijun Wang & Jianfeng Yu, 2021. "The expected investment growth premium," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 905-933, December.
    9. Doerr, S. & Erdem, M. & Franco, G. & Gambacorta, L. & Illes, A., 2021. "Technological capacity and firms’ recovery from Covid-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    10. Breugem, Matthijs & Marfè, Roberto, 2020. "Long-run versus short-run news and the term structure of equity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    11. Michael Hasler & Mariana Khapko & Roberto Marfè, 2020. "Rational Learning and the Term Structures of Value and Growth Risk Premia," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 622, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    12. Zhiting Wu, 2024. "The sensitivity of risk premiums to the elasticity of intertemporal substitution," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 53(2), pages 353-390, June.
    13. Davide E. Avino & Andrei Stancu & Chardin Wese Simen, 2021. "Dissecting Macroeconomic News," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1047-1077, August.
    14. Kim, Yongjin & Kuehn, Lars-Alexander & Li, Kai, 2024. "Learning about the consumption risk exposure of firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    15. Hiroatsu Tanaka, 2022. "Equilibrium Yield Curves with Imperfect Information," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-086, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Babiak, Mykola & Kozhan, Roman, 2024. "Parameter learning in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Pier dup Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2015. "Nominal Rigidities and the Term Structures of Equity and Bond Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Jeffrey L. Callen & Matthew R. Lyle, 2020. "The term structure of implied costs of equity capital," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 342-404, March.
    19. Patricia M. Dechow & Ryan D. Erhard & Richard G. Sloan & And Mark T. Soliman, 2021. "Implied Equity Duration: A Measure of Pandemic Shutdown Risk," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 243-281, March.
    20. Lin, Xiaoji & Palazzo, Berardino & Yang, Fan, 2020. "The risks of old capital age: Asset pricing implications of technology adoption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-161.
    21. Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 626, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    22. Pierlauro Lopez, 2021. "Welfare Implications of Asset Pricing Facts: Should Central Banks Fill Gaps or Remove Volatility?," Working Papers 21-16R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 16 May 2023.
    23. Croce, Mariano M. & Marchuk, Tatyana & Schlag, Christian, 2022. "The leading premium," SAFE Working Paper Series 371, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    24. Ye Li & Chen Wang, 2023. "Valuation Duration of the Stock Market," Papers 2310.07110, arXiv.org.

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