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The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation

Author

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  • Alp Simsek

    (Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142, USA)

Abstract

I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a macroeconomics perspective. To highlight unifying themes, I develop a stylized macroeconomic model that embeds several mechanisms. With short-selling constraints, speculation can generate overvaluation and speculative bubbles. Leverage can substantially inflate speculative bubbles, and leverage limits depend on perceived downside risks. Shifts in beliefs about downside tail scenarios can explain the emergence and the collapse of leveraged speculative bubbles. Speculative bubbles are related to rational bubbles, but they match better the empirical evidence on the predictability of asset returns. Even without short-selling constraints, speculation induces procyclical asset valuation. When speculation affects the price of aggregate assets, it also influences macroeconomic outcomes such as aggregate consumption, investment, and output. Speculation in the boom years reduces asset prices, aggregate demand, and output in the subsequent recession. Macroprudential policies that restrict speculation in the boom can improve macroeconomic stability and social welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Alp Simsek, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Financial Speculation," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 335-369, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:anr:reveco:v:13:y:2021:p:335-369
    DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-092120-050543
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Dávila, 2023. "Optimal Financial Transaction Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 5-61, February.
    2. Chroufa, Mohamed Ali & Chtourou, Nouri, 2023. "Financial development threshold effect on wealth inequality-economic growth nexus: Evidence from MENA economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    3. Florian Schuster & Marco Wysietzki & Jonas Zdrzalek, 2023. "How Heterogeneous Beliefs Trigger Financial Crises," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 238, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    4. Haddad, Valentin & Ho, Paul & Loualiche, Erik, 2022. "Bubbles and the value of innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 69-84.
    5. Rıdvan Karacan & Mehmet Emin Yardımcı, 2024. "Free market economy: Is the market or prices free? Theory and evidence from the United States," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 83(1), pages 59-74, January.
    6. Timo Ehrig & Todd Zenger, 2024. "Competing with Theories: Using Awareness and Confidence to secure Resources and Rents," Working Papers TIMES² 2024-078, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    7. Alaminos, David & Guillén-Pujadas, Miguel & Vizuete-Luciano, Emili & Merigó, José María, 2024. "What is going on with studies on financial speculation? Evidence from a bibliometric analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 429-445.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial speculation; belief disagreements; short selling; leverage; speculative bubbles; rational bubbles; countercyclical risk premium; business cycles; aggregate demand recessions; macroprudential policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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