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Antibody Tests: They are More Important than We Thought

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  • Guimaraes, Luis

Abstract

Antibody testing is a non-pharmaceutical intervention - not recognised so far in the literature - to prevent COVID-19 contagion. I show this in a simple economic model of an epidemic in which agents choose social activity under health state uncertainty. In the model, susceptible agents are more socially active when they think they might be immune. And this increased activity escalates infections, deaths, and welfare losses. Antibody testing, however, prevents this escalation by revealing that susceptible agents are not immune. Through this mechanism, in exercises calibrated to the UK, I find that antibody testing can save about 8% of COVID-19 related deaths within 12 months

Suggested Citation

  • Guimaraes, Luis, 2020. "Antibody Tests: They are More Important than We Thought," QBS Working Paper Series 2020/07, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:qmsrps:202007
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3640105
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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