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An econometric model of guest-worker migrations to and from the FRG based on an individual decision theoretical approach

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  • Seifert-Vogt, Hans G.

Abstract

Starting from a sequential decision of international migration under incomplete information (see (1)) a Markov process for the number of in- and out-migrants from country j to country o is modeled. The parameters of this process involve the degree of uncertainty of the migrants about the quality of life in the guest-country before migration and indices of their productivity in the j - and o-economy. Using time series of in- and outmigration from and to the main countries sending guest-workers to the FRG these parameters will be estimated. In the paper the model of the mentioned Markov process is presented, thereby stressing the underlying microeconomic model, and some results of the econometric estimation of the parameters of the model. Finally some hints for the economic implications of the empirical findings will be given.

Suggested Citation

  • Seifert-Vogt, Hans G., 1989. "An econometric model of guest-worker migrations to and from the FRG based on an individual decision theoretical approach," Discussion Papers, Series II 85, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:kondp2:85
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    1. B.P. McCall & J.J. McCall, 1984. "The Economics of Information: A Sequential Model of Capital Mobility," UCLA Economics Working Papers 342, UCLA Department of Economics.
    2. McCall, B P & McCall, J J, 1987. "A Sequential Study of Migration and Job Search," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(4), pages 452-476, October.
    3. Berninghaus, Siegfried K. & Seifert-Vogt, Hans G., 1989. "A temporary equilibrium model of international migration with overlapping generations and incomplete information," Discussion Papers, Series II 86, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
    4. Siegfried Berninghaus & Hans Günther Seifert-Vogt, 1987. "International Migration under Incomplete Information," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 123(II), pages 199-218, June.
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