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Determinants of the expected real long-term interest rates in the G7-countries

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  • Krämer, Jörg W.

Abstract

The paper investigates which factors determine the expected real long-term interest rates of the G7-countries as a whole within a single equation error correction model. Inflationary expectations are generated using the low frequency component of inflation provided by the Hodrick-Prescott filter. A comparision of the calculated expected inflation rates with those resulting from index-linked and conventional UK bonds suggests this approach to be appropriate. Expected real long-term interest rates turn out to be influenced positively by real short-term interest rates, capacity utilization and structural public borrowing.

Suggested Citation

  • Krämer, Jörg W., 1996. "Determinants of the expected real long-term interest rates in the G7-countries," Kiel Working Papers 751, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:751
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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