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Stabilising the global greenhouse: A simulation model

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  • Michaelis, Peter

Abstract

This paper investigates the economic implications of a comprehensive approach to greenhouse policies that strives to stabilise the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases at an ecologicaliy determined threshold level. In a theoretical optimisation model conditions for an efficient allocation of abatement effort among pollutants and over time are derived. The model is empirically speeified and adapted to a dynamic GAMS-algorithm. By various Simulation runs for the period of 1990 to 2110, the economics of greenhouse gas aecumulation are explored. In particular, the long-run cost associated with the above stabilisation target are evaluated for three different policy scenarios: i) a comprehensive approach that covers all major greenhouse gases simultaneously, ii) a piecemeal approach that is limited to reducing CO2 emissions, and iii) a tenyear moratorium that postpones abatcment effort until new scientific cvidence on the greenhouse effect will become available. Comparing the Simulation results suggests that a piecemeal approach would considerably increase total cost, whercas a ten-year moratorium might be reasonable even if the probability of 'good news' is comparatively small.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaelis, Peter, 1993. "Stabilising the global greenhouse: A simulation model," Kiel Working Papers 604, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:604
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    1. William R. Cline, 1992. "Economics of Global Warming, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 39, January.
    2. Peter Michaelis, 1992. "Global warming: Efficient policies in the case of multiple pollutants," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 2(1), pages 61-77, January.
    3. William D. Nordhaus, 1991. "The Cost of Slowing Climate Change: a Survey," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 37-66.
    4. Nordhaus, William D., 1993. "Rolling the 'DICE': an optimal transition path for controlling greenhouse gases," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 27-50, March.
    5. John Reilly & Kenneth Richards, 1993. "Climate change damage and the trace gas index issue," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 3(1), pages 41-61, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Heister, Johannes & Stähler, Frank, 1994. "Globale Umweltpolitik und joint implementation: Eine ökonomische Analyse für die Volksrepublik China," Kiel Working Papers 644, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Heister, Johannes, 1997. "Ökologie und Marktwirtschaft: Eckpunkte einer zukunftsorientierten Umweltpolitik," Kiel Discussion Papers 291, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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