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An Empirical Analysis of Behavioral Finance in the Saudi Stock Market: Evidence of Overconfidence Behavior

Author

Listed:
  • Soleman Alsabban

    (Department of Economic Research, Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, Saudi Arabia.)

  • Omar Alarfaj

    (Department of Economic Research, Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, Saudi Arabia.)

Abstract

Theoretically, investors are considered to be rational decision makers in regards to trading in stock markets, however, some empirical studies have statistically discredited this believe. Evidence shows that investors seem to act irrationally in the financial markets. This research, therefore, aims to empirically investigate investor's irrational behavior, specifically, overconfidence behavior in the Saudi stock market, Tadawul. The data under investigation is from 2007 to 2018, monthly based. According to previous research, positive past market returns influence the level of investors' overconfidence leading to higher trading turnover in stock markets. To test for overconfidence behavior, a market-wide Vector autoregression (VAR) model is designed to investigate the lead-lag relationship between market returns and market turnover. The results obtained in this research suggest that investors in the Saudi stock market are overconfident.

Suggested Citation

  • Soleman Alsabban & Omar Alarfaj, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Behavioral Finance in the Saudi Stock Market: Evidence of Overconfidence Behavior," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 73-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2020-01-10
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Bouteska, Ahmed & Harasheh, Murad & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "Revisiting overconfidence in investment decision-making: Further evidence from the U.S. market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    3. Bouteska, Ahmed & Kabir Hassan, M. & Gider, Zeynullah & Bataineh, Hassan, 2024. "The role of investor sentiment and market belief in forecasting V-shaped disposition effect: Evidence from a Bayesian learning process with DSSW model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Ali Shaddady & Mohammed Alsaggaf, 2020. "Issues that Matter When Behavioral Finance Factors Drive the Largest Initial Public Offering in the Saudi Financial Market," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 106-117.
    5. Esra Alp Coşkun & Hakan Kahyaoglu & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2023. "Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior? Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Behavioral Finance; overconfidence bias; stock market; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G4 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance

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