IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jfinqa/v44y2009i03p719-744_99.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probability Judgment Error and Speculation in Laboratory Asset Market Bubbles

Author

Listed:
  • Ackert, Lucy F.
  • Charupat, Narat
  • Deaves, Richard
  • Kluger, Brian D.

Abstract

In 12 sessions conducted in a typical bubble-generating experimental environment, we design a pair of assets that can detect both irrationality and speculative behavior. The specific form of irrationality we investigate is the probability judgment error associated with low-probability, high-payoff outcomes. Independently, we test for speculation by comparing prices of identically paying assets in multiperiod versus single-period markets. We establish that aggregate irrationality measured in one dimension (probability judgment error) is associated with aggregate irrationality measured in another (bubble formation).

Suggested Citation

  • Ackert, Lucy F. & Charupat, Narat & Deaves, Richard & Kluger, Brian D., 2009. "Probability Judgment Error and Speculation in Laboratory Asset Market Bubbles," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 719-744, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:44:y:2009:i:03:p:719-744_99
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022109009990019/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Asako, Yasushi & Funaki, Yukihiko & Ueda, Kozo & Uto, Nobuyuki, 2020. "(A)symmetric information bubbles: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    2. Cueva, Carlos & Rustichini, Aldo, 2015. "Is financial instability male-driven? Gender and cognitive skills in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 330-344.
    3. Michailova, Julija, 2010. "Overconfidence and bubbles in experimental asset markets," MPRA Paper 26388, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. John Duffy & Janet Hua Jiang & Huan Xie, 2024. "Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(12), pages 8772-8790, December.
    5. Rosas-Martinez, Victor H., 2016. "On Monetary Policy, Unemployment, and Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 70980, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Schoenberg, Eric J. & Haruvy, Ernan, 2012. "Relative performance information in asset markets: An experimental approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1143-1155.
    7. Chmura, Thorsten & Le, Hang & Nguyen, Kim, 2022. "Herding with leading traders: Evidence from a laboratory social trading platform," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 93-106.
    8. Victor H. ROSAS MARTINEZ, 2016. "On Monetary Policy, Unemployment, and Economic Growth," Journal of Economics Bibliography, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 298-311, June.
    9. John Duffy & Jean Paul Rabanal & Olga A. Rud, 2022. "Market experiments with multiple assets: A survey," Chapters, in: Sascha Füllbrunn & Ernan Haruvy (ed.), Handbook of Experimental Finance, chapter 18, pages 213-224, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. John Duffy & Janet Hua Jiang & Huan Xie, 2021. "Pricing Indefinitely Lived Assets: Experimental Evidence," CIRANO Working Papers 2021s-32, CIRANO.
    11. Rosas-Martinez, Victor H., 2016. "Expectations Over Durable Assets: How to Avoid the Formation of Value Bubbles," MPRA Paper 75350, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Owen Powell & Natalia Shestakova, 2017. "The robustness of mispricing results in experimental asset markets," Vienna Economics Papers 1702, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    13. Owen Powell & Natalia Shestakova, 2017. "The robustness of mispricing results in experimental asset markets," Vienna Economics Papers vie1702, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
    14. Lucy F. Ackert & Lei Jiang & Li Qi, 2016. "Experiments on Electronic Double Auctions and Abnormal Trades," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(1), pages 87-104, July.
    15. repec:grz:wpsses:2014-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:grz:wpsses:2013-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Charles-Cadogan, G., 2021. "Market Instability, Investor Sentiment, And Probability Judgment Error in Index Option Prices," CRETA Online Discussion Paper Series 71, Centre for Research in Economic Theory and its Applications CRETA.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:44:y:2009:i:03:p:719-744_99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/jfq .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.