IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/ifwkwp/1100.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic impacts of external shocks and anti-shock policies in Bolivia: a CGE analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Jemio M., Luis Carlos
  • Wiebelt, Manfred

Abstract

Bolivia's mid-term growth prospects are promising but these prospects could be lost, due to social unrest and political instability, if the country does not solve its short-term economic problems, resulting from both external shocks and internal factors. Against this background, this paper analyzes whether the Bolivian economy has any possibility at all to apply anti-shock policies in order to cushion the short-term effects of shocks. For this purpose, a recursive-dynamic CGE model is described which includes both real and financial sectors and which captures the particular features that characterize the functioning of the Bolivian economy. The model is then used to evaluate the effects of external shocks and to test the effectiveness of different policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jemio M., Luis Carlos & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2002. "Macroeconomic impacts of external shocks and anti-shock policies in Bolivia: a CGE analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1100, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/2730/1/kap1100.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:idb:brikps:publication-detail,7101.html?id=68558 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Wiebelt, Manfred, 1996. "Anpassung und Einkommensverteilung in Entwicklungsländern: Eine angewandte allgemeine Gleichgewichtsanalyse für Malaysia," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 890, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    3. Schweickert, Rainer, 2001. "Macroeconomic constraints on economic development and poverty reduction: the case of Bolivia," Kiel Working Papers 1060, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Faris, Robert, 2001. "Reducing Volatility due to Natural Gas Exports: Is the Answer a Stabilization Fund?," Documentos de trabajo 11/2001, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    5. Jemio M., Luis Carlos, 2001. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Bolivia since the 1970s: Adjustment to What, By Whom, and How? Analytical Insights from a SAM Model," Kiel Working Papers 1031, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Francois Bourguignon & William H. Branson & Jaime de Melo, 1989. "Adjustment and Income Distribution: A Counterfactual Analysis," NBER Working Papers 2943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Government of Bolivia & Gobierno de Bolivia, 2001. "Bolivia: Poverty Reduction Strategy," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 80367, Inter-American Development Bank.
    8. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Meza, Mauricio, 2001. "The Natural Gas Sector in Bolivia: An Overview," Documentos de trabajo 1/2001, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    9. Andersen, Lykke Eg & Nina, Osvaldo, 2000. "The HIPC Initiative In Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 4/2000, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Martín Palmero Pantoja, 2014. "Un modelo SVAR para la economía Boliviana," Investigación & Desarrollo, Universidad Privada Boliviana, vol. 1(1), pages 82-99.
    2. Michael FEIL, 2010. "Forecasting Medium-Term Distributional Effects of the Economic Crisis: A CGE-Microsimulation Approach," EcoMod2010 259600056, EcoMod.
    3. Mora Barrenechea, Mauricio, 2020. "Time-varying effects of commodities prices in the Bolivian economy," MPRA Paper 104706, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Theile, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "Attacking Poverty in Bolivia – Past Evidence and Future Prospects: Lessons from a CGE Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 6/2003, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    2. Heylen, Fanny, 2010. "Analyzing the poverty impact of the enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative in Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 1/2010, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    3. Aliaga Lordemann, Jevier & Villegas Quino, Horacio, 2011. "Poverty, Indigence and Public Investment in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 5/2011, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    4. Mora Barrenechea, Mauricio, 2020. "Time-varying effects of commodities prices in the Bolivian economy," MPRA Paper 104706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Haider A. Khan, 2007. "Social Accounting Matrix: A Very Short Introduction for Economic Modeling," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-477, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    6. Spatz, Julius & Steiner, Susan, 2002. "Post-Reform Trends in Wage Inequality: The Case of Urban Bolivia," Documentos de trabajo 9/2002, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    7. Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada & Nowak-Lehmann D., Felicitas, 2004. "MERCOSUR-European Union Trade: How important is EU Trade Liberalisation for MERCOSUR's Exports?," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 30, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    8. Rainer Thiele, 2003. "The social impact of structural adjustment in Bolivia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 299-319.
    9. Peter Walkenhorst, 2004. "HIPC and Trade Policy Reform: Some Early Observations," International Trade 0401009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Wiebelt, Manfred, 2004. "GEM-PIA: A real-financial general equilibrium model for poverty impact analysis technical description," Kiel Working Papers 1230, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Sahn, David E. & Dorosh, Paul & Younger, Stephen, 1996. "Exchange rate, fiscal and agricultural policies in Africa: Does adjustment hurt the poor?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 719-747, April.
    12. Daniela López, 2003. "Assessing Bolivia´s debt relief under the heavily, indebted poor countries initiative," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 6(2-1), pages 89-138, December.
    13. Lay, Jann & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2001. "Towards a dual education system - a labour market perspective on poverty reduction in Bolivia," Kiel Working Papers 1073, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Maasland, Anne, 1990. "Methods for measuring the effect of adjustment policies on income distribution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 474, The World Bank.
    15. Christian Velasquez-Donaldson, 2007. "Analysis of the Hydrocarbon Sector in Bolivia: How are the Gas and Oil Revenues Distributed?," Development Research Working Paper Series 06/2007, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    16. Stela Cani, 2009. "Resource Abundance, Mineral Funds and Institutional Quality," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2009-04, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    17. Schweickert, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 1996. "Finanzpolitik im Aufholprozeß: Lehren aus Europa, Lateinamerika und Asien," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1689, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Klasen, Stephan & Harttgen, Kenneth & Grosse, Melanie, 2005. "Measuring Pro-Poor Growth with Non-Income Indicators," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 22, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    19. Barja, Gover & McKenzie, David & Urquiola, Miguel, 2004. "Bolivian capitalization and privatization: Approximation to an evaluation," MPRA Paper 23878, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2005.
    20. Arnoldo Matus Kramer, 2007. "Adaptation to Climate Change in Poverty Reduction Strategies," Human Development Occasional Papers (1992-2007) HDOCPA-2007-34, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    CGE model; Bolivia; macroeconomic adjustment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iwkiede.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.