IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/iisecd/2003_006.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Attacking Poverty in Bolivia – Past Evidence and Future Prospects: Lessons from a CGE Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Theile, Rainer

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

  • Wiebelt, Manfred

    (IISEC, Universidad Católica Boliviana)

Abstract

This paper reviews Bolivia’s economic and social development over the period 1985-99, and investigates the country’s future prospects for pro-poor growth using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. It turns our that past economic growth cannot be called pro-poor. Model simulations show that under optimistic assumptions the growth and poverty goals envisaged in the Bolivian poverty reduction strategy may be achieved, but that performance wick fall short of expectations once external shocks are taken into account. The evolution of poverty is likely to remain uneven, with considerable improvements in urban areas and a high persistence is rural areas. Instituto de Investigaciones Socio - Económicas; IISEC

Suggested Citation

  • Theile, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "Attacking Poverty in Bolivia – Past Evidence and Future Prospects: Lessons from a CGE Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 6/2003, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2003_006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iisec.ucb.edu.bo/assets_iisec/publicacion/2003-6.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Woden, Q.T. & Ayres, W. & Barenstein, M. & Hicks, N. & Lee, K. & Maloney, W. & Peeters, P. & Siaens, C. & Yitzjaki, S., 2000. "Poverty and Policy in Latin America and Caribeean," Papers 467, World Bank - Technical Papers.
    2. Rainer Thiele & Daniel Piazolo, 2003. "A Social Accounting Matrix for Bolivia Featuring Formal and Informal Activities," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 285-318.
    3. Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2000. "Sind die Anpassungsprogramme von IWF und Weltbank gescheitert? Eine Bilanz der Erfahrungen von zwei Jahrzehnten," Kiel Discussion Papers 357, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Dollar, David & Kraay, Aart, 2002. "Growth Is Good for the Poor," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 195-225, September.
    5. Jemio M., Luis Carlos, 2001. "Macroeconomic Adjustment in Bolivia since the 1970s: Adjustment to What, By Whom, and How? Analytical Insights from a SAM Model," Kiel Working Papers 1031, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Government of Bolivia & Gobierno de Bolivia, 2001. "Bolivia: Poverty Reduction Strategy," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 80367, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Rainer Thiele, 2003. "The social impact of structural adjustment in Bolivia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 299-319.
    8. Schweickert, Rainer & Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2003. "Makroökonomische Reformen und Armutsbekämpfung in Bolivien: ebnet die HIPC-Initiative den Weg zu sozialverträglicher Anpassung?," Kiel Discussion Papers 398, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tellería, Roberto & Fernández, Soraya & Ludeña, Carlos, 2011. "Policy alternatives and strategies for the Plurinational State of Bolivia following the end of trade preferences," Documentos de Proyectos 3922, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    2. Unknown, 2009. "Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Volume 5, Issue 1," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 5(1), pages 180-180, June.
    3. Barja Daza, Gover & Monterrey Arce, Javier & Villarroel Böhrt, Sergio, 2006. "Bolivia: Impact of shocks and poverty policy on household welfare," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 6, pages 63-123, Abril.
    4. Jann Lay & Rainer Thiele & Manfred Wiebelt, 2008. "Shocks, Policy Reforms and Pro‐Poor Growth in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(1), pages 37-56, February.
    5. Carlos Gustavo Machicado, 2006. "Welfare Gains from Optimal Policy in a Partially Dollarized Economy," Development Research Working Paper Series 10/2006, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    6. Aliaga Lordemann, Jevier & Villegas Quino, Horacio, 2011. "Poverty, Indigence and Public Investment in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 5/2011, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephan Klasen & Melanie Grosse & Rainer Thiele & Jann Lay & Julius Spatz & Manfred Wiebelt, 2004. "Operationalizing Pro-Poor Growth - Country Case Study: Bolivia," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 101, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Rainer Thiele, 2003. "The social impact of structural adjustment in Bolivia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 299-319.
    3. Schweickert, Rainer & Thiele, Rainer, 2004. "From Washington to post-Washington? Consensus policies and divergent developments in Latin America and Asia," Kiel Discussion Papers 408, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Lay, Jann & Thiele, Rainer & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2004. "Pro-poor growth in Bolivia: accounting for external shocks and policy reforms," Kiel Working Papers 1231, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Schweickert, Rainer, 2003. "Vom Washington-Konsens zum Post-Washington-Dissens? Glaubwürdigkeit, Timing und Sequencing wirtschaftlicher Reformen," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3082, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Shibasaki, Ryuichi & Ma, Liqiang & Kadono, Takashi & Ishikura, Tomoki & Ieda, Hitoshi, 2005. "An Estimation of International Maritime Container Volume Among Asian Countries by GTAP Model and Simulation on FTA And Transport Improvement Scenario," Conference papers 331384, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Jemio M., Luis Carlos & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2002. "Macroeconomic impacts of external shocks and anti-shock policies in Bolivia: a CGE analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1100, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Adams, Richard Jr. & Page, John, 2003. "Poverty, Inequality and Growth in Selected Middle East and North Africa Countries, 1980-2000," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 2027-2048, December.
    9. Nunnenkamp, Peter & Thiele, Rainer, 2004. "Strategien zur Bekämpfung der weltweiten Armut: Irrwege, Umwege und Auswege," Kiel Discussion Papers 407, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Leonardo Gasparini & Federico Gutiérrez & Leopoldo Tornarolli, 2007. "Growth And Income Poverty In Latin America And The Caribbean: Evidence From Household Surveys," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 53(2), pages 209-245, June.
    11. Aliaga Lordemann, Jevier & Villegas Quino, Horacio, 2011. "Poverty, Indigence and Public Investment in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis," Documentos de trabajo 5/2011, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC), Universidad Católica Boliviana.
    12. Marta Moratti, 2010. "Consumption Poverty and Pro-Poor Growth in Bolivia," Working Paper Series 1310, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    13. Fiess, Norbert M. & Verner, Dorte, 2004. "The dynamics of poverty and its determinants - the case of the Northeast of Brazil and its states," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3259, The World Bank.
    14. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2004. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Issues and Cross‐Country Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 351-408, July.
    15. Xiaowen Xie, 2023. "Analyzing the Impact of Digital Inclusive Finance on Poverty Reduction: A Study Based on System GMM in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-20, September.
    16. Rodriguez-Alvarez, Ana & Llorca, Manuel & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2021. "Alleviating energy poverty in Europe: Front-runners and laggards," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    17. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2009. "Inequality and the Impact of Growth on Poverty: Comparative Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 726-745.
    18. Brambilla, Irene & Porto, Guido, 2016. "Trade, Poverty Eradication, and the Sustainable Development Goals," ADBI Working Papers 629, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    19. Fallon, Peter & Hon, Vivian & Qureshi, Zia & Ratha, Di, 2001. "Middle-income countries - development challenges and growing global role," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2657, The World Bank.
    20. Shinhye Chang & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "Causality Between Per Capita Real GDP and Income Inequality in the U.S.: Evidence from a Wavelet Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 269-289, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth; Poverty Income Distribution CGE Analysis Bolivia; Instituto de Investigaciones Socio - Económicas; IISEC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:iisecd:2003_006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tirza Aguilar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iisecbo.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.