IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/iad/wpaper/0514.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Un modelo SVAR para la economía Boliviana

Author

Listed:
  • Martín Palmero Pantoja

Abstract

Bolivia es una economía pequeña, abierta, parcialmente dolarizada y con un esquema de tipo de cambio muy cercano a fijo. Bajo estas características la teoría económica keynesiana sustentaría que la política fiscal debería tener un efecto más importante, como instrumento de estabilización económica, en comparación con la política monetaria y que, al ser un país pequeño los choques externos debieran ser relevantes. En este trabajo se analiza cómo se propagan los shocks fiscales, monetarios y externos en la economía boliviana utilizando un modelo SVAR. Los resultados más relevantes indican que, efectivamente los shocks fiscales tienen mayor efecto sobre la actividad económica que los monetarios y, los choques externos, medidos como cambios en los precios de la energía, repercuten de manera importante sobre la inflación y en menor medida en el crecimiento

Suggested Citation

  • Martín Palmero Pantoja, 2014. "Un modelo SVAR para la economía Boliviana," Investigación & Desarrollo, Universidad Privada Boliviana, vol. 1(1), pages 82-99.
    • Handle: RePEc:iad:wpaper:0514
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www1.upb.edu/RePEc/iad/wpaper/0514.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    2. Rómulo A. Chumacero, 2005. "A Toolkit for Analyzing Alternative Policies in the Chilean Economy," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rómulo A. Chumacero & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (S (ed.),General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy, edition 1, volume 9, chapter 8, pages 261-302, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    5. Jemio M., Luis Carlos & Wiebelt, Manfred, 2002. "Macroeconomic impacts of external shocks and anti-shock policies in Bolivia: a CGE analysis," Kiel Working Papers 1100, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    7. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    8. Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Are forecasting models usable for policy analysis?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 10(Win), pages 2-16.
    9. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-144, January.
    10. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Troug, Haytem & Murray, Matt, 2015. "The Effects of Asymmetric Shocks in Oil Prices on the Performance of the Libyan Economy," MPRA Paper 68705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Galadima, Mukhtar Danladi & Aminu, Abubakar Wambai, 2019. "Shocks effects of macroeconomic variables on natural gas consumption in Nigeria: Structural VAR with sign restrictions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 135-144.
    3. Derek W. Bunn & Carlo Fezzi, 2007. "Interaction of European Carbon Trading and Energy Prices," Working Papers 2007.63, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    4. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    5. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2013. "L’apport de la représentation VAR de Christopher A. Sims à la science économique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 309-319, Décembre.
    6. Dickinson, David & Liu, Jia, 2007. "The real effects of monetary policy in China: An empirical analysis," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 87-111.
    7. Kenneth F. Wallis & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs, 2005. "Comparing SVARs and SEMs: two models of the UK economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 209-228.
    8. Gahn, Santiago José, 2021. "On the adjustment of capacity utilisation to aggregate demand: Revisiting an old Sraffian critique to the Neo-Kaleckian model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 325-360.
    9. Peter Englund & Anders Vredin, 1990. "The current account, supply shocks and accommodative fiscal policy : interpretations of Swedish post-war data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 89-107, Autumn.
    10. Elbourne, Adam, 2008. "The UK housing market and the monetary policy transmission mechanism: An SVAR approach," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 65-87, March.
    11. Ugur Soytas, 2006. "Long run relationship between entry and exit: time series evidence from Turkish manufacturing industry," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 12(11), pages 1-12.
    12. Roman Hušek & Tomáš Formánek, 2014. "Alternative specification, estimation and identification of vector autoregressions [Alternativní specifikace, odhad a identifikace vektorových autoregresí]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(4), pages 52-72.
    13. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    14. Inayat U. Mangla & Kalim Hyder, 2017. "Global Uncertainty and Monetary Policy Effectiveness in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 22(Special E), pages 111-134, September.
    15. Dan S. Rickman, 2010. "Modern Macroeconomics And Regional Economic Modeling," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 23-41, February.
    16. Carlos J. García & Andrés Sagner, 2011. "Crédito, Exceso de toma de Riesgo, Costo de Crédito y ciclo Económico en Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 645, Central Bank of Chile.
    17. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2011. "Thomas J. Sargent and Christopher A. Sims: Empirical Macroeconomics," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2011-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    18. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    19. Fujiwara, Ippei, 2006. "Evaluating monetary policy when nominal interest rates are almost zero," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 434-453, September.
    20. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Floros, Christos, 2015. "Dynamic Connectedness of UK Regional Property Prices," MPRA Paper 68421, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Vectores autorregresivos estructurales; política monetaria; política fiscal; choques externos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C39 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Other

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iad:wpaper:0514. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ricardo Nogales C. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ciupbbo.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.