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Niedrige Zinsen und rasche monetäre Expansion: Was soll die Finanzpolitik tun?

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens

Abstract

Der vorliegende Policy Brief basiert auf einem Gutachten, das das IfW für das Bundesministerium der Finanzen erstellt hat, und soll die Gefahren eines von der Geldpolitik induzierten Boom-Bust-Zyklus für die öffentlichen Haushalte in Deutschland skizzieren und Handlungsempfehlungen erarbeiten, wie diesen Gefahren am besten begegnet werden kann. Dabei wird zunächst auf die bereits schon eingetretenen Konsequenzen des Niedrigzinsumfelds eingegangen (Abschnitt 2). Es werden die Gefahren eines Boom-Bust-Zyklus vor dem Hintergrund der Schuldenbremse dargestellt (Abschnitt 3) und anhand der Erfahrungen des jüngsten Boom-Bust-Zyklus in Irland und Spanien illustriert (Abschnitt 4). Schließlich werden Handlungsempfehlungen abgeleitet (Abschnitt 5).

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2014. "Niedrige Zinsen und rasche monetäre Expansion: Was soll die Finanzpolitik tun?," Kiel Policy Brief 75, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:75
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    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2012. "Die Zinslast des Bundes in der Schuldenkrise: Wie lukrativ ist der „sichere Hafen“?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13, pages 81-91, May.
    3. Claudio BorioBy & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2017. "Rethinking potential output: embedding information about the financial cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 655-677.
    4. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan, 2012. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Winter 2012," Kiel Discussion Papers 514/515, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kappler, Marcus & Sachs, Andreas, 2012. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Frühjahr 2012," Kiel Discussion Papers 504/505, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    7. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & Schwarzmüller, Tim & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2014. "Finanz- und Wirtschaftspolitik bei einer anhaltenden monetären Expansion," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 5, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kappler, Marcus & Sachs, Andreas, 2012. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Herbst 2012," Kiel Discussion Papers 512/513, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Plödt, Martin & Van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Kooths, Stefan, 2012. "Weltkonjunktur und deutsche Konjunktur im Sommer 2012," Kiel Discussion Papers 506/507, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Kempkes, Gerhard, 2012. "Cyclical adjustment in fiscal rules: Some evidence on real-time bias for EU-15 countries," Discussion Papers 15/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2014. "Konjunkturbereinigung der Länder: Eine Quasi-Echtzeitanalyse am Beispiel Schleswig-Holsteins," Kiel Discussion Papers 538, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. Siemers Lars-H. & Gebhardt Heinz, 2020. "Die strukturelle Besserung der Länderfinanzen in der Niedrigzinsphase: die trügerische Leichtigkeit des Scheins," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 54-78, April.

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