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Keine strukturelle Verbesserung der Haushaltslage – Zu den Ergebnissen der Steuerschätzung vom November 2012

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  • Christian Breuer

Abstract

Das günstige Steueraufkommen am aktuellen Rand hat den Arbeitskreis »Steuerschätzungen« bei seiner 141. Sitzung Ende Oktober 2012 dazu veranlasst, die Schätzung für das Jahr 2012 nach oben zu korrigieren. Für das laufende Jahr wird nunmehr mit einem Steueraufkommen in Höhe von 602,4 Mrd. Euro gerechnet. Noch im Mai wurden 596,5 Mrd. Euro erwartet. Die positive Schätzungskorrektur im laufenden Jahr ist vor allem dem laufenden Kassenergebnis zu verdanken. Für die Folgejahre sind die Revisionen der Schätzergebnisse verhaltener. Für das Jahr 2013 wird mit einem Gesamtsteueraufkommen in Höhe von 618,0 Mrd. Euro nahezu exakt das gleiche Ergebnis erwartet wie im Mai. Im Jahr 2016 kommt es im Vergleich zur Schätzung vom Mai sogar zu Mindereinnahmen. Am Ende des Projektionszeitraums im Jahr 2017 liegen die prognostizierten Steuereinnahmen insgesamt bei 706,6 Mrd. Euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Breuer, 2012. "Keine strukturelle Verbesserung der Haushaltslage – Zu den Ergebnissen der Steuerschätzung vom November 2012," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(22), pages 13-18, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:22:p:13-18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nathalie Girouard & Christophe André, 2005. "Measuring Cyclically-adjusted Budget Balances for OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 434, OECD Publishing.
    2. Koester, Gerrit B. & Priesmeier, Christoph, 2012. "Estimating dynamic tax revenue elasticities for Germany," Discussion Papers 23/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Christian Breuer, 2012. "Strukturelle Konsolidierung ohne Finanzpolitik – Zu den Ergebnissen der Steuerschätzung vom Mai 2012," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 38-43, May.
    4. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2012. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufwind – Europäische Schuldenkrise schwelt weiter," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(08), pages 03-72, April.
    5. Kempkes, Gerhard, 2012. "Cyclical adjustment in fiscal rules: Some evidence on real-time bias for EU-15 countries," Discussion Papers 15/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Breuer, 2013. "Gefährden die aktuellen Mindereinnahmen den Konsolidierungskurs? Zu den Ergebnissen der Steuerschätzung vom Mai 2013," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(10), pages 68-74, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Steuerschätzung; Steueraufkommen; Öffentlicher Haushalt; Länderhaushalt; Finanzpolitik; Prognose; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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