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Leere Regale made in China: Wenn China beim Handel mauert

Author

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  • Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai
  • Stamer, Vincent
  • Wendorff, Falk
  • Gans, Steffen

Abstract

In ihrem Kiel Policy Brief zeigen die Autoren einige der Abhängigkeiten Deutschlands von China auf, um mögliche Auswirkungen eines Exportstopps chinesischer Produkte nach Deutschland besser verstehen zu können. Sie stellen fest, dass direkt aus China bezogene Vorprodukte einen Anteil von 0,6 Prozent an der deutschen Produktion haben und der chinesische Anteil am deutschen Endverbrauch 1,4 Prozent beträgt. Der deutsche Konsum ist daher abhängiger von China als die Produktion. Da unter Berücksichtigung indirekter Verflechtungen der Anteil chinesischer Wertschöpfung an der deutschen Produktion 1,5 Prozent und am deutschen Konsum 2,7 Prozent beträgt, sollte nach Ansicht der Autoren eine Strategie für eine größere Unabhängigkeit von China auch diese indirekten Verflechtungen berücksichtigen. Langfristig würde eine Entkopplung der EU von China die deutsche Wirtschaftsleistung dauerhaft um 1 Prozent reduzieren, was gemessen am Bruttoinlandsprodukt des Jahres 2021 einer entgangenen Wertschöpfung von 36 Mrd. EUR pro Jahr entspräche. Bei einzelnen, zum Teil essentiellen Produkten sind die Abhängigkeiten von China noch wesentlich größer: So importierte Deutschland im Jahr 2021 mehr als 80 Prozent seiner Laptops und fast 70 Prozent seiner Mobiltelefone aus China. Da dies von ökonomischen Modellen nur unzureichend berücksichtigt werden kann, könnten die Kosten einer Abkopplung von China daher noch höher sein. Vor diesem Hintergrund empfehlen die Autoren aus Gründen der Versorgungssicherheit, die Beschaffung essentieller Produkte zu diversifizieren - beispielsweise durch den Abschluss weiterer Freihandelsabkommen.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai & Stamer, Vincent & Wendorff, Falk & Gans, Steffen, 2023. "Leere Regale made in China: Wenn China beim Handel mauert," Kiel Policy Brief 164, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:164
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    as
    1. ., 2022. "Criticisms of participation income," Chapters, in: Participation Income, chapter 7, pages 89-100, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Gabriel Felbermayr & Hendrik Mahlkow & Alexander Sandkamp, 2023. "Cutting through the value chain: the long-run effects of decoupling the East from the West," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 50(1), pages 75-108, February.
    3. Gabriel Felbermayr & Moritz Goldbeck & Alexander-Nikolai Sandkamp, 2019. "Feindliche Übernahme? Chinas Auslandsinvestitionen unter der Lupe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(08), pages 27-39, April.
    4. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Stamern, Vincent, 2021. "Transatlantic restart: Proposals for trade cooperation between the EU and the United States," Studien, Stiftung Familienunternehmen / Foundation for Family Businesses, number 250017, March.
    5. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:08:p: is not listed on IDEAS
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    1. Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Exporte ausgebremst: China ersetzt "Made in Germany"," Kiel Policy Brief 167, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    Keywords

    China; Deutschland; internationaler Handel; globale Wertschöpfungsketten; China; Germany; international trade; global value chains;
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