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Deutsche Exporte ausgebremst: China ersetzt "Made in Germany"

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  • Stamer, Vincent

Abstract

Deutschland exportiert deutlich weniger Waren nach China als das Wirtschaftswachstum der Länder vermuten lässt. Die Studie legt nahe, dass erwartete Handelswerte 28 Prozent höher gelegen hätten als tatsächlich beobachtete Warenströme. Dies entspricht einer potenziellen Exportlücke von bis zu 30 Mrd. Euro. Der sprunghafte Anstieg der Primäreinkommen aus China und die reinvestierten Gewinne deutscher Unternehmen deuten darauf hin, dass deutsche Firmen vermehrt in China produzieren, statt dorthin zu exportieren. China steigert zudem seinen Anteil an heimischer Wertschöpfung an Gütern, was die Importquote Chinas im Beobachtungszeitraum um die Hälfte verringert hat. Deutschland konnte lange seinen Anteil an chinesischen Importen aufrechterhalten, im Gegensatz zu Südkorea und Japan. Andere Länder wie Vietnam hingegen liefern zunehmend Vorprodukte nach China und profitierten von neuen Importtrends der Volksrepublik weg von Kapitalgütern hin zu Vorleistungen. Deutschlands komparativer Vorteil in der Produktion von Maschinen entspricht nicht mehr dem Bedarf Chinas, daher liegen zukünftige Wachstumsmärkte für deutsche Exportfirmen eher in Südostasien und Indien.

Suggested Citation

  • Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Exporte ausgebremst: China ersetzt "Made in Germany"," Kiel Policy Brief 167, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:167
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/276246/1/1858860318.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sandkamp, Alexander-Nikolai & Stamer, Vincent & Wendorff, Falk & Gans, Steffen, 2023. "Leere Regale made in China: Wenn China beim Handel mauert," Kiel Policy Brief 164, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    2. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    3. Frank Bickenbach & Wan-Hsin Liu, 2022. "Goodbye China: What Do Fewer Foreigners Mean for Multinationals and the Chinese Economy?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 57(5), pages 306-312, September.
    4. Bickenbach Frank & Liu Wan-Hsin, 2023. "Wie China internen und externen wirtschaftlichen Herausforderungen begegnen will," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 103(7), pages 484-490, July.
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    1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stamer, Vincent, 2023. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Winter 2023: Finanzpolitik in Turbulenzen - Gegenwind für die Erholung [German Economy in Winter 2023: Public budget under stress - Recovery faces headwinds]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 110, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    Keywords

    China; Deutschland; Internationaler Handel; Lieferketten; China; Germany; international trade; global value chains;
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