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Mittelfristprojektion im Herbst 2023: Wachstum im Sinkflug, Expansionsspielräume nicht allzu hoch

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  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens
  • Gern, Klaus-Jürgen
  • Groll, Dominik
  • Hoffmann, Timo
  • Jannsen, Nils
  • Kooths, Stefan
  • Meuchelböck, Saskia
  • Reents, Jan
  • Sonnenberg, Nils
  • Stolzenburg, Ulrich

Abstract

Der Wachstumspfad der deutschen Wirtschaft flacht sich weiter ab. Maßgeblich dafür ist, dass ab dem kommenden Jahr das Arbeitskräftepotenzial sinkt. Grund hierfür ist die Alterung der Bevölkerung. Die Wachstumsrate sinkt bis zum Jahr 2028 auf nur noch 0,4 Prozent. Während Sonderfaktoren, wie der hohe Krankenstand oder die Lieferengpässe, die Produktionskapazitäten nur temporär einschränken, hat sich das Produktionspotenzial der Wirtschaft in den vergangenen Jahren offenbar dauerhaft merklich verringert. So schätzen wir das Niveau des Produktionspotenzial im Jahr 2024 im Vergleich zu unserer Prognose aus dem Jahr 2019 - vor Pandemie und Energiekrise - rund 3 Prozent bzw. rund 100 Mrd. Euro niedriger ein. Eine ausgeprägte Unterauslastung liegt trotz der derzeit schwachen konjunkturellen Entwicklung nicht vor. Für das Bruttoinlandsprodukt ergeben sich nur noch geringe Expansionsspielräume. Zwischen den Jahren von 2026 bis 2028 wird es im Durchschnitt wohl nur noch um rund 0,4 Prozent steigen.

Suggested Citation

  • Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Meuchelböck, Saskia & Reents, Jan & Sonnenberg, Nils & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2023. "Mittelfristprojektion im Herbst 2023: Wachstum im Sinkflug, Expansionsspielräume nicht allzu hoch," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 108, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkkb:279696
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